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The 45th record close for the S&P index. Dow also closing at a record level.

Oct 11, 2024 | 13:14 pm

The S&P index closed at a new record level for the 45th time this year. The Dow industrial average also closed at a record today. The NASDAQ index closed higher today and is within 1.66% of it's all time record close reached back on July 10 at 18647.45.The small-cap Russell 2000 was the biggest gainer today with a search of 2.10%. It is within 1.35% of it's all time high close at 2263.67.A snapshot of the closing levels currently shows:Dow industrial average +409.74 points or 0.97% at 42863.86.S&P index up 34.98 points or 0.61% have 5815.03.NASDAQ index up 60.89 points or 0.33% at 18342.94.Russell 2000 up 45.99 points or 2.10% at 2234.41.For the trading week:Dow industrial average +1.21%S&P index up 1.11%NASDAQ index +1.13%Russell 2000 up 0.97%Some big winners this week:Trump Media & Technology Group: +53.21%Uber Tech: +16.14%Super Micro Computer: +15.89%Robinhood Markets: +14.77%CrowdStrike Holdings: +9.57%Celsius: +9.02%Palo Alto Networks: +9.01%Palantir: +8.72%Snowflake: +8.12%Arm: +8.01%NVIDIA: +7.91%SoFi Technologies: +7.39%Wells Fargo & Co: +7.06%Some big losers this week:Raytheon: -17.17%Tesla: -12.95%First Solar: -8.51%Nio A ADR: -7.89%Tencent ADR: -6.65%Alibaba ADR: -3.88%General Mills: -3.79%Worthington Industries: -3.68%ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ: -3.50%iShares Global Clean Energy: -3.18%Moderna: -3.17%Dollar Tree: -2.76%GameStop Corp: -2.76% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Canadian jobs beat but CAD down for eighth day

Oct 11, 2024 | 13:05 pm

Canada September employment change +46.7K vs +27.0K expectedUS PPI final demand August YoY 1.8% vs 1.6% est. Ex Food and energy 2.8% vs 2.7% est.US October UMich prelim consumer sentiment 68.9 vs 70.8 expectedBank of Canada business outlook survey says "demand is weak"Fed's Logan: Less-restrictive policy will still cool inflationBaker Hughes oil rig count up +2 to 481Tesla shares fall 8% after robotaxi event panned for lack of detailsMarkets:Gold up $26 to $2655US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.08%WTI crude down 30 cents to $75.56NZD leads, JPY lagsS&P 500 up 0.7%, touches fresh recordFriday turned into a classic risk-on day but it's not entirely clear why. Stock futures were negative and the US dollar was steady in pre-market trading but big bids hit at the US equity open and FX followed the same pattern, with Treasury yields falling led by the front end.Data was mixed with PPI following CPI slightly higher while UMich sentiment missed to the downside slightly. A more-likely culprit was bank earnings, including comments from J.P. Morgan that consumer spending was steady and not deteriorating. Earnings at JPM and Wells Fargo were also good, boosting financial shares broadly.There is anticipation of announcements of further Chinese fiscal stimulus at press events on Saturday and Monday so that could dictate early-week trading.Overall moves were small but the yen was a notable underperformer. That's most-likely a product of the risk trade but there could also be some position squaring as we count down to the US and Japanese elections. The S&P 500 rose to record intraday and closing highs with small caps particularly strong today and the Russell 2000 up 2%.The loone was a notable underperformer once again. The session high came before the strong jobs data and that led to a 50 pip decline initially. However that drop didn't entirely last as buyers stepped in quickly and then more-strongly after the BOC business outlook survey. The Oct 23 BOC decision is likely to become a litmus test for global central bank easing. Current pricing is 50/50 for 25 bps or 50 bps. The loonie has now declined for eight straight days, which is ominous given the backdrop in oil and stocks in that time period. Note that US bonds and Canadian markets are closed Monday for a holiday.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Ex Fed Pres.Mester :Believes neutral rate is higher than used to be in the past.

Oct 11, 2024 | 12:46 pm

Believes the neutral rate is higher than it used to be in the past The Funds rate is high relative to where inflation is currently Always want to keep monetary policy moving to where the economy is going.There is room to go in nominal funds rate before reaching the neutral rate. Fed has to be more forward-looking than the marketI don't think that much has changed in the economyA Fed policy maker time horizon is more longer termI would cut rates by 25 bps. A stop-and-go is not a good look for the Fed.The recent data has not changed the medium-term economic outlook This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

For what it is worth...If Harris elected President she would have a Republican on cabinet

Oct 11, 2024 | 12:33 pm

As the clock ticks to the election, expect more and more promises to sway the last voters.The Democrat nominee Harris is now promising Republican representation in her cabinet.Equal time to GOP nominee Trump, some of his recent promises:Interest on car loans will be fully tax-deductible.Intends to invoke the six-year renegotiation provision of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).No Chinese EVs will ever drive on American roadsProposes a “detailed plan to save the American auto industry.”Vows to end double taxation for Americans living abroad. He is encouraging expats to register to vote. Promises to eliminate taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime pay.Proposes lifting the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.Plans to extend individual income and estate tax provisions of the 2017 tax cuts law.The problem with the interest on car loans is it applies to those that itemize deductions. Most American's do not itemize deductions but take the lump sum amount each year. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs: EUR should now be the preferred funding currency over CHF and JPY

Oct 11, 2024 | 11:36 am

Goldman Sachs suggests that the EUR should now be considered the funding currency of choice, particularly in comparison to the CHF and JPY, given current market conditions and expectations for currency performance.Key Points:The firm utilizes its market regimes framework to analyze FX performance based on yield direction and rate volatility, indicating that the current environment favors the EUR.Their baseline forecasts predict higher equities, stable yields, and reduced rate volatility, which could lead to renewed weakness in the Dollar and cyclical outperformance for both G10 and emerging market currencies.Despite the potential for near-term Dollar strength—especially if US equities reflect a stronger domestic growth outlook compared to European counterparts—the overall sentiment leans towards a longer-term weakening of the Dollar.In light of these conditions, Goldman Sachs advocates for the EUR as the preferred funding currency, favoring it over the traditionally safer CHF and JPY.Conclusion:As market dynamics shift and uncertainties loom, Goldman Sachs identifies the EUR as a more attractive funding option, potentially enhancing its appeal against the backdrop of stable yields and positive equity performance. This perspective underscores the changing landscape in currency markets amid evolving economic conditions.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones Industrial Average hits fresh record high after slack PPI print

Oct 11, 2024 | 10:38 am

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose over 400 points bottom-to-top on Friday, bolstered into a fresh record high of 42,837 after US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures cooled in September.

Baker Hughes oil rig count up +2 to 481

Oct 11, 2024 | 10:06 am

Oil rigs +2 to 481Nat Gas rigs -1 to 101Total Rigs +1 at 586Crude oil is trading down $0.55 or -0.73% at $75.30. The high price today stalled against its 100-day moving average near $75.97 (the high price reached $76.01). The low price was at $74.55.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 479 to 481

Oct 11, 2024 | 10:05 am

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 479 to 481

JPMorgan surges 5% on Q3 earnings beat

Oct 11, 2024 | 09:08 am

JPMorgan (JPM) stock surged over 5% on Friday after the nation’s largest bank released earnings that strongly beat consensus.

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.48%, above expectations (0.4%) in September

Oct 11, 2024 | 09:00 am

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.48%, above expectations (0.4%) in September

US: The outlook is improving, but some risks remain – National Bank of Canada

Oct 11, 2024 | 08:59 am

Recent weeks have been punctuated by a number of positive developments for the U.S.

Mid-east conflict and OPEC+ restraint hopes preventing a sharp oil correction – TDS

Oct 11, 2024 | 08:21 am

Notwithstanding concerns surrounding a wider Middle East war, which could disrupt oil flows from the region, China stimulus disappointment and OPEC+ producer plans to bring barrels back in the coming months have put the crude oil market at risk of a sharp correction.

Gold continues rallying after dip in US consumer sentiment index

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:58 am

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers to trade back in the $2,650s on Friday after the release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data

EUR/GBP slides lower as analysts bet on ECB easing, UK data beats expectations

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:55 am

EUR/GBP edges lower on Friday as traders sell the Euro (EUR) due to the increasing likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) making more aggressive interest rate cuts in the future.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bounces from weekly lows as ‘hammer’ hints reversal

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:39 am

The Pound Sterling recovers some ground against the greenback as a ‘hammer’ emerges on the daily chart and rises above 1.3050, registering gains of over 0.15%.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD gains after upbeat UK data, hot US PPI

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:38 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) gyrates in a tight range near 1.3060 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday's North American session.

US Dollar sticks to tight Friday ranger after softer Michigan reading

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:34 am

The US Dollar (USD) ticks a touch higher on Friday after a very solid rally this week, with the rate differential becoming the main driver. The question going forward for next week will be if this upward move in US Treasury rates was a bit overdone, seeing

Bank of Canada business outlook survey says "demand is weak"

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:32 am

For me, this is a more-important report than today's jobs data.Business Outlook Survey indicator remains negative, signaling widespread softness" demand is weak, firms have excess capacity, and price growth continues to slow" but little deterioration since last quarterFirms reported weak past sales growth due to past inflation and interest rate increases continuing to weigh on the economy, particularly on consumers’ budgetsSales expectations remain softer than average but have improved slightly this quarter on rate cut hopes. Sales growth indicator to +13 from +1Labour shortages continue to ease, with few firms reporting challengesInvestment and hiring intentions remain weakInvestment spending +9 vs +11 priorWage growth expected to moderate graduallyFirms anticipate slower growth in input and selling pricesInflation expectations within BoC's target range at all horizonsThe Bank of Canada's Q3 2024 Business Outlook Survey shows that Canadian firms are still facing headwinds, with the BOS indicator remaining in negative territory. While current business conditions remain subdued, there's a glimmer of hope as future sales expectations showed some improvement.Labour market pressures continue to ease, with the share of firms reporting labour shortages falling well below historical averages. This cooling in the job market is reflected in weak hiring intentions for the coming year.On the inflation front, businesses expect wage growth to moderate gradually. They also anticipate slower growth in both input costs and selling prices compared to recent quarters. Importantly, inflation expectations have settled within the BoC's 2-3% target range across all time horizons, with most firms expecting inflation between 2% and 3% over the next two years.Given that CPI is already at 2%, there is no reason for Bank of Canada rates to be so high above neutral. The question for this month's meeting is 25 bps or 50 bps and I see an overwhelming case for 50 bps. That said, the BOC has been slow to move and the slight uptick in future sales expectations could give the central bank pause before making any dramatic moves.USD/CAD is up 21 pips to 1.3764 on the day and about 10 pips on this release.Separately, the survey of consumers also showed deteriorating inflation expectations but that was coupled with improved sentiment around financial stress but worsening sentiment around the jobs market.Financial stress indicators show improvement44% of consumers noticed interest rate cuts (up from 17% in Q2)Nearly half still expect a recession in the coming yearWage growth expectations soften for first time since Q2 2023Job-hopping likelihood decreasesYouth report more pronounced labor market deteriorationHome buying intentions unchanged at average levelsOnly 8% of non-buyers would consider purchasing if rates were lower This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD wobbles in search for fresh Fed, ECB interest rate path cues

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:31 am

EUR/USD consolidates near 1.0930 in Friday's New York session.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $31.50 after US PPI release

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:25 am

Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to near $31.50 in Friday’s New York session.

Crude Oil ignores US data and holds steady ahead of a possible eventful weekend

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:21 am

Crude Oil is back to square one for this week, stabilizing around Monday’s opening price near $75.00. The recovery from the lower levels seen earlier this week comes after Israel signaled it is ready to retaliate against Iran. The headline comes after United

S&P 500 rises to a fresh record as financials lead, JPM says consumers have troughed

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:20 am

The S&P 500 is up 28 points, or 0.5%, to 5808 in a rise to a fresh record high. The jump at the open bucks futures that were negative shortly before the open.A big tailwind is in financials as J.P. Morgan shares rise 4.5% following earnings.Commentary in the conference call was moderately upbeat from the CFO:"We're pretty much in the trough right now as we speak. When you look at yield-seeking behaviour, that has come down quite a bit so that's no longer a headwind. When you look at checking account balances those have been pretty stable for some time so we can see that consumers are kind of done spending down their cash buffers, so that's kind of supportive for consumer deposit balances."Shares of Wells Fargo are also up 5.5% following earnings. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US UoM Consumer Confidence Index declines to 68.9 in October vs. 70.8 expected

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:19 am

Consumer confidence in the US weakened slightly in early October, with the preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index edging lower to 68.9 from 70.1 in September.

Netflix: Q3 earnings preview

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:16 am

Next week, Netflix will announce its earnings report for Q3 2024 on Thursday 17th October.

Mexican Peso lifted by Banxico Minutes, Finmin meets US bank chiefs

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:10 am

The Mexican Peso (MXN) edges higher in its most-traded pairs on Friday, carrying momentum over from its recovery on the previous day, when it found a floor and rose following the release of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) meeting minutes.

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3% (October) vs previous 3.1%

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:00 am

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3% (October) vs previous 3.1%

US October UMich prelim consumer sentiment 68.9 vs 70.8 expected

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:00 am

Sept final reading was 70.1Current conditions 62.7 vs 64.3 expected (63.3 prior)Expectations 72.9 vs 75.0 expected (74.4 prior)1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.7% prior5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.1% priorI don't put much stock in this report as it's highly politicized and we're at the peak of the political cycle. Here is the commentary in the survey:Consumer sentiment inched down a meagre 1.2 index points in October, well within the margin of error, following two straight months of gains. Sentiment is currently 8% stronger than a year ago and almost 40% above the trough reached in June 2022. While inflation expectations have eased substantially since then, consumers continue to express frustration over high prices. Still, long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months, while current and expected personal finances both softened slightly. Despite widespread news coverage about the Middle East and Ukraine, few consumers connected these developments to the economy. Concerns over these conflicts climbed this month but were relatively rare, mentioned spontaneously by less than 5% of consumers. With the upcoming election on the horizon, some consumers appear to be withholding judgment about the longer term trajectory of the economy. This chart speaks to those comments: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (70.8) in October: Actual (68.9)

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:00 am

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (70.8) in October: Actual (68.9)

Tesla shares fall 8% after robotaxi event panned for lack of details

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:54 am

Elon Musk went back to his old playbook with the robotaxi event, teasing untried technology and mixing it with hype. The problem is that he routinely blows through deadlines by an order of magnitude and final pricing doesn't resemble what was promised. There is no world where cybercabs are on the road in 2026.Shares are down 8% at the open but there is something of a bounce off the lows as shorts take profit (TSLA is the most-shorted stock on the S&P 500).What I find interesting is the robotics. I'm a big believing that what Musk was talking about in regards to robots doing everything is coming and they're in a decent spot to build them. The thing is, China is in a much better spot to build them so it's tough to justify a $700 billion market cap in a segment that's wide open.On the flipside of Tesla, shares of Uber are the best-performing stock, up 8% as the competitive threat from the cybercab looks distant. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD surrenders some gains after US PPI, Canadian Employment data

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:49 am

The USD/CAD pair gives up some of its intraday gains after posting a fresh two-month high to near 1.3780 in Friday’s New York session.

UMich October preliminary consumer sentiment coming up next

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:46 am

The US October consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan is coming up next and expected to tick up to 70.8 from 70.1.The problem with this report is that it's badly skewed by politics and we're at the height of the political cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Mixed open for the major indices. For the week the results are modestly higher

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:45 am

As the market digests the PPI data and looks toward the University of Michigan preliminary sentiment data and inflation expectations at the top of the hour, the US stocks are trading mixed. The Dow industrial average is higher along with the S&P. The NASDAQ index is lower. All three indices moved modestly lower yesterday. For the trading week all three indices are modestly higher.Bank earnings came out better than expected and are helping to support the Dow and S&PA snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open is showingDow industrial average +195.72 points or 0.46% at 42649.84S&P index up 6.61 points or 0.11% at 5786.66.NASDAQ index -58.57 points or -0.32% at 18223.48.For the trading weekDow industrial average +0.74%S&P index, +0.65%NASDAQ index +0.53%Looking at the financial companies that reported this morning: J.P. Morgan, +3.19%Wells Fargo, +4.53%Bank of New York Mellon +0.19%BlackRock +2.40%Tesla shares are trading down close to 8% $219.50 after the Robotaxi event last night lacked specific details.Musk did promise self driving taxis before 2027Goldman Sachs up there projections for ended video to $150. Shares are trading down by -0.19%US yields are trading next with a shorter end lower any longer and higher: 2- year 3.957%, -4.2 basis points5-year 3.901%, -1.7 basis points10 year yield 4.096%, +0.2 basis points30 year yield 4.402%, +1.8 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling gains after upbeat UK data, hot US PPI

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:18 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) gyrates in a tight range near 1.3060 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday's North American session.

Canadian dollar tries to avoid an eight-day losing streak after stronger jobs data

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:55 am

USD/CAD fell after a strong jobs report but remains a dozen pips higher on the day in what could be the eighth straight day of gains.The pair was trading at a session high of 1.3780 just before the data then fell as low as 1.3726 afterwards but has since rebounded to 1.3754. The market is struggling to gauge whether the Bank of Canada will cut by 25 or 50 basis points on October 23. Before the data, the probabilities were slightly tilted to 50 bps but those odds are now down to 36%.Even with that, USD/CAD has been on a rough streak. That's in large part to broader US dollar demand but there is also some element of trepidation about the strength of Chinese stimulus. That was also reflected in Shanghai shares today, which fell 2.55% ahead of a weekend briefing that may reveal more fiscal stimulus.Even if the pair rises again today, it wouldn't match the nine-day rally in July as economic worries mounted. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada Unemployment Rate declines to 6.5% in September vs. 6.7% expected

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:46 am

The Unemployment Rate in Canada edged lower to 6.5% in September from 6.6% in August, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

Eurozone: Situation not as bad as it looks? – Rabobank

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:41 am

A slew of (significantly) weaker-than-expected PMI surveys in the Eurozone in the past two months has injected fresh uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery, Rabobank’s economists Elwin de Groot and Maartje Wijffelaars note.

US annual PPI inflation edges lower to 1.8% in September vs. 1.6% expected

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:33 am

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 1.8% on a yearly basis in September, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD managed to erase a portion of its daily losses

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:32 am

GBP/USD clings to small daily gains early Friday after closing marginally lower on Thursday.

United States Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in September

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:31 am

United States Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in September

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:31 am

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September

Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (27K) in September: Actual (46.7K)

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:31 am

Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (27K) in September: Actual (46.7K)

Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €16B to €14.4B in August

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:30 am

Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €16B to €14.4B in August

United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (1.6%) in September

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:30 am

United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (1.6%) in September

US PPI final demand August YoY 1.8% vs 1.6% est. Ex Food and energy 2.8% vs 2.7% est.

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:30 am

Prior month 1.7% revised to 1.9%. YoY. Core 2.4% revised to 2.6%PPI MoM 0.0% for SeptemberPPI ex food and energy 0.2% vs 0.2% est.PPI ex food and energy and Trade YoY 3.2% vs 3.3% last monthPPI ex food and energy and trade MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% last month (revised from 0.3%)The YOY data was higher than expectations despite the MoM data coming in lower or as expected. Looking at the details from final demand services and goods:Final Demand Services:Increased 0.2% in September, following a 0.4% rise in AugustLeading contributors:Deposit services (+3.0%)Machinery and vehicle wholesalingFurniture retailingDesktop and portable device application software publishingDeclines:Professional and commercial equipment wholesaling (-6.3%)Securities brokerage and dealingFinal Demand Goods:Decreased 0.2% in September, following no change in AugustLeading contributors to decline:Gasoline (-5.6%)Diesel fuelJet fuelChicken eggsHome heating oilIncreases:Processed poultry (+8.8%)Electric powerMotor vehiclesOverall:Final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.1%Final demand trade services rose 0.2%Final demand transportation and warehousing services rose 0.3%The number crunchers will be looking at the impact from the CPI and the PPI on the PCE data. The MoM data is good but the YoY vs estimates are higher despite the declines.BUT:....Core CPI inflation is now rising for the first time in 18 monthsHeadline PPI inflation is now rising for the first time since JuneLast month's PPI inflation number was revised HIGHERCore PPI inflation is now up for 2 straight months This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canada September employment change +46.7K vs +27.0K expected

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:30 am

Prior month +22.1KUnemployment rate 6.5% vs 6.7% expectedPrior month employment rate 6.6%Full-time employment +112.0K vs -43.6K prior (largest since May 2022)Part-time employment -65.3K vs +65.7K priorParticipation rate 64.9% vs 65.1% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 4.5% vs 4.9% last monthPrivate sector employment +61KPublic sector employment -24KAhead of the data, the market was pricing in 53% chance that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 bps on October 23. That has risen considerably this week and helped to fuel a big rally in USD/CAD.Immediately after the data, USD/CAD has fallen 45 pips and the market is re-thinking the BOC decision. The softer participation rate does take some of the shine off the drop in unemployment. The employment-to-population rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.7%.Employment rose among youth aged 15 to 24 (+33,000; +1.2%) and core-aged women (25 to 54 years old) (+21,000; +0.3%). The largest segment rise was in culture and recreation industry, which rose by 22,000 jobs matching the rise in wholesale and retail trade. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Markets quiet, eyes on more US data, Canada jobs

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:10 am

Headlines:More US data and Fed speak to keep markets interested as the week winds downWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PPI?A quiet start for major currencies so farFed's Goolsbee: Inflation has cooled, labour market remains strongUK August monthly GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedGermany September final CPI +1.6% vs +1.6% y/y prelimMarkets:GBP leads, JPY lags on the day European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 future down 0.1%US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 4.098%Gold up 0.6% to $2,645.40WTI crude down 0.7% to $75.29Bitcoin up 2.4% to $61,143It was a quieter session as markets settled down after some pushing and pulling in US trading yesterday.There was no follow through to the back and forth moves in the dollar yesterday, with major currencies keeping rather quiet during the session.EUR/USD traded narrowly within a 25 pips range, locked in by large option expiries at 1.0930 and 1.0950. Besides that, USD/JPY crept a little higher from 148.65 to 149.00 but isn't indicative of much after a slight retreat yesterday.Besides that, USD/CAD is seen up a little again as it stays on the hunt for an eighth straight day of gains. The pair is up another 0.2% to 1.3770 but we do have more US data and the Canadian jobs report coming up.In the equities space, we're seeing a more tepid mood today as investors look to figure things out ahead of key earnings releases in the week(s) to come. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo reported earlier but it didn't do much to move the needle on the day.US futures are looking flattish and lightly changed while European indices are only marginally higher after a slower open earlier.In the commodities space, gold continues to push up with buyers keeping price above $2,645 for now. Suddenly, the drop from earlier in the week towards $2,605 is quickly a thing of the past. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PPI?

Oct 11, 2024 | 03:56 am

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.Distribution of forecasts for PPIPPI Y/Y 1.8% (4%)1.7% (29%)1.6% (48%) - consensus1.5% (19%)PPI M/M0.2% (10%)0.1% (69%) - consensus0.0% (21%)Core PPI Y/Y2.7% (67%) - consensus2.6% (28%)2.5% (5%)Core PPI M/M0.2% (84%) - consensus0.1% (14%)0.0% (2%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

What would it really take for a pullback in gold prices?

Oct 11, 2024 | 03:42 am

Even with the dollar having strengthened and traders scaling back to pricing in a 25 bps move for the Fed in the past week or so, it hasn't really fazed gold prices whatsoever. There was a mild dip back towards $2,605 earlier this week but that didn't last with prices rebounding in the past two days. Now, gold is up another 0.3% today to $2,638 and holding near 28% gains year-to-date.After the rise earlier in the year, gold saw some consolidation around mid-April to June. All that before another run higher and so far this year, there hasn't really been any looking back for gold. It's been a stunning ride to fresh record highs on multiple occasions in 2024.The case for buying gold can be put in very simple terms. Adam made a good post on that here. And it all still rings true.But even as a gold bull, what has surprised me the most throughout the year has been the resilience and how nonchalant gold has been behaving in light of the many changes in global economic developments.The most compelling case coming into this year was that we are going to see lower rates. And even though Fed rate cut expectations got pushed back, that didn't stop gold from tracking higher. Sure, central bank buying is a key part of the narrative. But you could hardly find a meaningful dip on the charts in gold.The pace and scale of the rise is really the standout in my view, with ETF positioning also not really matching up to that.Despite all the recent narratives, I'm still a big fan of gold. But as I have mentioned before, it's tough to be advocating for something with such one-sided movement in the past ten months or so.I've said it before and I'll say it again. I really would like to see a healthy pullback in gold in the weeks ahead before we get into the seasonal buying months in December and January.Otherwise, it's getting rather dicey even if the reasons for staying long are still largely in place.I mean, China reportedly pausing on gold purchases would've been a good reason to take some off the top. But then again, I guess it's China. And how reliable really is the reporting, we can't be exactly sure.But still, even with the changes in Fed pricing in the past week and higher dollar/rates, it has barely scratched the gold armor. That's quite something. Safe haven bids amid the events in the Middle East might be negating all this but then, we're not seeing such moves faded as has been the case throughout the year.Until now, the best reason I can argue for a pullback in gold would be a technical one. We might be overdue a squeeze with some form of trigger point. However, there has been numerous times in the past few months for that to happen yet here we are.What are your thoughts on gold as the year winds down before we get to the seasonal rush in December and January? Is gold overdue a pullback/correction? If so, what's the trigger that you're looking for? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD continues to keep near key support level for now

Oct 11, 2024 | 01:59 am

There is a light extension to the narrow range today with the pair now clipping 1.0950. That being said, it is still keeping within a ~23 pips range only for the day. There are some large option expiries as well at 1.0930 and 1.0950 that should likely keep price action locked, before we get to US trading.With that in mind, what is the chart telling us in the bigger picture?I outlined some key fundamental developments in the pair yesterday here. And things haven't changed whatsoever on the technical side as well.EUR/USD continues to be pinned down near the 100-day moving average (red line) and that is the key support level in play currently. The level is seen at 1.0934 at the moment.Hold above that and buyers are still hanging on to a small chance of a rebound. They would have to reverse sentiment in the near-term chart to convince of anything stronger. In that lieu, the 100-hour moving average is seen at 1.0957 and 200-hour moving average at 1.1000. So, there is some work to be done.Otherwise, the downside pressure continues to persist with the momentum siding with sellers. But they have some key levels to chew through themselves now as the week winds down.The 100-day moving average above is one before the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since April, seen at 1.0907.With the dollar having made a comeback in the last two weeks, it turns trading sentiment towards one key question now. Which economy will fare better in the next three to four months; the US or the Eurozone?The answer to that is likely to fuel the next key directional move in EUR/USD, guided by the technicals. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A quiet start to the session so far

Oct 11, 2024 | 01:02 am

Major currencies aren't showing much appetite with dollar pairs keeping lightly changed still in the opening hour in Europe. Here's a snapshot of things so far on the day:Dollar pairs are pretty much keeping within 0.1% change with narrow ranges prevailing for the most part. Outside of USD/JPY, other dollar pairs are holding within a 30 pips range with EUR/USD sitting within a 13 pips range only.And even for USD/JPY, the range today is an outlier compared to what we normally would see in the pair. The 14-day average true range (ATR) is ~180 pips. And the 7-day ATR for the pair is ~130 pips. So, yeah.With little on the agenda in Europe, it's pretty much a placeholder session in the final day of the week. All eyes are on US data and more Fed speak to keep things interesting before the weekend. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European equities lightly changed at the open today

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:03 am

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%This comes with US futures also keeping little changed, with S&P 500 futures marginally lower by 4 points or 0.06%. That's not leaving major currencies with much to work with as well, keeping in narrower ranges thus far. EUR/USD is flat at 1.0940, trapped within a 12 pips range. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

What are the main events for today?

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:50 pm

The main highlight in the European session was the release of the UK GDP data. There's nothing else on the agenda until the American session. That's when we get the main events for today, that is the Canadian labour market report, the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Canada September Labour Market reportThe Canadian Labour Market report is expected to show 27K jobs added in September vs. 22.1K in August and the Unemployment Rate to increase to 6.7% vs. 6.6% prior. The market is pricing a 52% probability for a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. A weak report will likely strengthen the chances for a 50 bps cut.12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US September PPIThe US PPI Y/Y is expected at 1.6% vs. 1.7% prior, while the M/M figures is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3% prior. A hot report will likely raise the probabilities for the Fed to remain on hold in November, although it's more likely that this is going to be a debate for 2025. The risk now is for inflation to get stuck at a higher level.14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US October UMich Consumer SentimentThe University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected at 70.8 vs. 70.1 prior. Compared to the Conference Board consumer confidence report, which is more biased towards the labour market, the consumer sentiment survey is more weighted towards consumers’ finances. In fact, analysts believe that it’s a better predictor of consumer spending than the consumer confidence report, which is also why the expectations index in the survey is included in the Leading Economic Index (LEI). Central bank speakers:07:00 GMT - ECB's Holzmann (hawk - voter)13:45 GMT/09:45 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (dove - voter)14:45 GMT/10:45 ET - Fed's Logan (hawk - non voter)17:10 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Bowman (hawk - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx futures flat in early European trading

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:08 pm

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1%This comes with US futures keeping flattish as well ahead of the open in Europe later. In Asia, Chinese indices are back down 2% as the volatile swings continue in trading this week. Overall, it's just a slight tempering to the optimism from earlier this week especially after having seen Wall Street touch record highs again on Wednesday. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany September final CPI +1.6% vs +1.6% y/y prelim

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:00 pm

Prior +1.9%HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%The numbers are unchanged to the initial estimates with core annual inflation also reaffirmed at 2.7%, down slightly from 2.8% in August. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UK August monthly GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expected

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:00 pm

Prior 0.0%GDP +1.0% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.2%; revised to +0.9%Services +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedIndustrial output +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedManufacturing output +1.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedConstruction output +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expectedAfter flattish growth in June and July, UK GDP is estimated to grow marginally in August. All main sectors posted growth but again, they were marginal at best. But at least it reaffirms that the UK economy is still somewhat holding up after a steadier showing in the first half of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Aussie dollar rallies above US$0.67

Oct 10, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6740 at time of writing. AUD/USD rebounded from a fresh weekly low (0.6701), even as the US CPI prints for September came in higher at 2.4% versus forecasts of 2.3%, and it remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve will respond to the development, with the release of the minutes from the September meeting. Bias for AUD remains on the downside and a clear break below 0.6700 would suggest further decline, potentially to 0.6670. Earlier this week, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate meeting minutes highlighted a complex economic landscape and its options for future monetary policy adjustments. While the current cash rate remains unchanged, members of the RBA discussed potential scenarios that could necessitate either the tightening or loosening of monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions. Despite maintaining the cash rate, RBA members expressed concerns over persistently high underlying inflation, which has shown only marginal declines in recent months. GDP growth for the June quarter met expectations, but household consumption lagged, prompting a cautious outlook on future economic recovery. There are no scheduled releases today. Key Movers In the US overnight, the consumer price index (CPI) or simply inflation data, rose by 2.4% in September on an annualised basis. The figure was the lowest the US has seen in the last three years, but slightly overshot analysts’ consensus views for a 2.3% rise. The monthly rate also topped expectations, coming in at a 0.2% clip from August, against calls for 0.1%. Core prices stayed elevated at 3.3% from a year ago, surpassing the 3.2% clip expected. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week jumped to its highest level in a year, which analysts are saying is more likely a result of Hurricane Helene and the Boeing machinist strike than a broader softening in the labor market. The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless claims jumped by 33,000 to 258,000 for the week of Oct. 3. That’s the most since Aug. 5, 2023 and well above the 229,000 analysts were expecting. The four-week average of claims, which evens out some of that weekly volatility, rose by 6,750 to 231,000. The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by 42,000 to about 1.86 million for the week of Sept. 28, the highest since late July. During the first four months of 2024, applications for jobless benefits averaged just 213,000 a week before rising in May. They hit 250,000 in late July, supporting the notion that high interest rates were finally cooling a red-hot U.S. job market. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6650 - 0.6850 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9450 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1150 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9150 - 0.9350 ▼

US Inflation Dips to 2.4% in September

Oct 10, 2024 | 08:23 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) continued its downswing, dropping slightly in September. Inflation fell to 2.4% year-on-year.

Forex Today: S&P 500 Hits Record High Ahead of US CPI Data

Oct 10, 2024 | 01:41 am

Markets Await Crucial US CPI Data, Expecting Fall to 2.3%; FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Participants Overly Dovish

Aussie dollar holds above 67 US cents

Oct 9, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker again this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6716 at time of writing. The AUDUSD pair attracts fresh sellers and drifts into negative territory for the fifth straight day on Wednesday. The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to be undermined by the disappointment over China's stimulus update. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated on Tuesday that the economy is facing more complex internal and external environments, and also fell short of announcing any new major stimulus plans. Yesterday, it was reported that China’s Finance Ministry is set to roll out a 2 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus package on October 12. The fiscal stimulus will be announced to support economic growth so that they can achieve a 5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target for the year. Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, is gaining against almost all of its competitors as markets assess the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September Meeting Minutes. The Minutes showed that Fed members agreed not to lock themselves into an aggressive easing path. The Minutes also indicated that future policy adjustments would depend on incoming data, while also noting that if the economy performs as anticipated, "it would likely be appropriate to gradually shift toward a more neutral policy stance." As a result, market players dropped bets of a 50 bps cut in November, with the odds for a 25 bps currently standing at around 85%. Looking ahead this week, the market focus will be glued to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Global stocks advanced on Wednesday, along with US Treasury yields, as investors digested minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting and awaited inflation data for clues on the central bank's interest rate path. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 346.47 points, or 0.82%, to 42,426.84. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 25.84 points, or 0.45%, to 5,776.97 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 57.66 points, or 0.32%, to 18,240.58. On the data front, US wholesale inventories rose less than initially thought in August amid a sharp moderation in the pace of increase in motor vehicle stocks. If this trend is sustained, it could temper expectations for robust economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday that wholesale inventories edged up 0.1%, revised down from the 0.2% gain estimated last month. Private inventory investment contributed to the economy's 3.0% annualised growth rate in the second quarter. Inventories and trade are the most volatile components of GDP. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6600 - 0.6800 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9350 - 1.9550 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.1000 - 1.1200 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9300 ▼

Forex Today: RBNZ Cuts Rates by 0.50%, Kiwi Falls

Oct 8, 2024 | 23:24 pm

RBNZ Cuts Rates as Expected; Markets Await FOMC Meeting Minutes

Aussie dollar continues to trade above US$0.67

Oct 8, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6746 at the time of writing. The AUD/USD pair extends its losing streak for the fourth trading day on Tuesday. The pair declined to near US$0.6720 as the Australian Dollar weakened after releasing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The Reserve Bank has warned it could be forced to increase interest rates in the coming months while admitting at the same time an earlier-than-expected cut could be on the cards if the economy weakens more than expected. The minutes revealed that Governor Michele Bullock and her board discussed the scenarios that would lead them to another increase – a 14th since early 2022 that would take rates to their highest level since mid-2011. On the flipside, the RBA acknowledged that an early rate cut could come if the economy continues to weaken, households save most of their tax cuts, or if unemployment rises more than expected. Key Movers The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, remains flat on Tuesday. The US dollar has turned sideways after revisiting a seven-week high as investors await fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) possible monetary policy action in the remainder of the year. The S&P 500 rebounded on Tuesday following a losing session on Wall Street with oil prices and bond yields in focus as investors assessed ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial average added 130 points, or 0.3%. The market rallied slightly to end last week after a blockbuster jobs report, and the Dow notched a new all-time closing high. A stock market rally in China has fizzled out as a highly-anticipated announcement on plans to boost the country's ailing economy disappointed investors. Shares had jumped by over 10% as trading restarted after the Golden Week holiday but fell back after a news conference by the country's economic planners. After a volatile day of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index in mainland China closed 4.6% higher, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slumped by 9.4%. Investors had been hoping for more information about how the government plans to support economic growth but the announcement gave little in the way of details. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6650 - 0.6850 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9300 - 1.9500 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9300 ▼

Forex Today: Slower Fed Cuts Consensus Hardens

Oct 7, 2024 | 23:15 pm

US Treasury Yields Trade Above 4%, Markets Expecting only a Further 0.50% Cut in 2024; Quiet Market Expected

Aussie dollar holds steady above US$0.67

Oct 7, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6755 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar continued its losing streak on Monday as the US dollar gained further after September's upbeat United States (US) employment data. This has forced traders to unwind the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut for the upcoming policy meeting in November. Instead of continuing to decline, the Australian dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a sideways range between US$0.6725 and US$0.6825. Looking ahead today, we will see the release of both the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also release the latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The Minutes are a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. The RBA kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% and didn’t offer any timeline to kickstart the rate-cut cycle. Key Movers The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, witnessed a calm Monday session with mild losses, holding steady despite elevated levels near last week's highs. Key events this week to look out for is the release of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The probability now of a 50 bps cut in November or December is unlikely according to market investors which still anticipates 125 bps of total easing in the next 12 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The major indexes closed sharply higher on Friday after a better-than-expected September jobs report reinforced the idea that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing. The Dow finished last week at an all-time closing high, while the S&P 500 was just shy of a record of its own when trading kicked off this week. The yield on 10-year Treasury's, which is sensitive to expectations around where interest rates are headed, moved above 4% on Monday for the first time in two months. The 10-year yield was at 4.02% recently, up from 3.98% on Friday. Gold futures were little changed at around $2,660, while bitcoin was up 1% around $63,300. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6650 - 0.6850 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9300 ▼

Forex Today: US Dollar, Yields Strong on “No Landing” Speculation

Oct 6, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Friday Saw Strong US Jobs & Earnings Data, Boosting Greenback; US Treasury Yields Soar; Japanese Currency Ambassador Monitoring Market

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.67

Oct 6, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6773 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped during the North American session after September’s jobs report in the United States (US), suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) at the November meeting. Aside from this, Australia’s data witnessed a solid Retail Sales report, and the Balance of Trade in August printed a surplus. Although those conditions could prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from cutting rates, business activity in the manufacturing sector, via the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI, contracted for eight straight months. There are no scheduled releases today on the bank holiday. Looking ahead to this week on Tuesday we will see the release of both the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence. The RBA will also release the latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes a detailed record of the RBA board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. Key Movers The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed into a fifth consecutive bullish day on Friday, driven higher by better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figures. American employers added 254,000 jobs last month in the penultimate jobs report before the US election, defying fears of a slowdown in the labour market. Job creation unexpectedly accelerated in September, while the headline unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. Economists had forecast a non-farm payrolls reading of around 132,500 for September, after a cooler summer of employment growth. Annual wage growth also firmed up in September, rising 4.0% YoY from the previous 3.9%. Investors had expected September’s Average Hourly Earnings growth to ease back to 3.8%. With wages and net jobs additions blowing well past expectations across the board, rate market expectations of a higher pace of rate cuts have taken a huge hit to round out a middling-at-best trading week. Stocks advanced on Friday after an expectation-defying jobs report gave investors confidence in the health of the economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 5,751.07, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22% to 18,137.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 341.16 points, or 0.81%, to notch an all-time closing high of 42,352.75. The S&P 500 finished up 0.22% on the week, while the Dow inched higher by 0.09%. The Nasdaq added 0.1% for the week, a major turnaround given the tech-heavy index came into Friday’s session down more than 1%. The next week will bring closely watched inflation data and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. A handful of major corporate earnings reports are also due. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6700 - 0.6900 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9100 - 1.9300 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9250 ▼

Forex Today: Stocks Fall & Dollar Firms on Iranian Military Escalation

Oct 1, 2024 | 23:46 pm

Iran Attacks Israel With Hundreds of Missiles, Entire Israeli Population Shelters for an Hour; US Dollar Rises, Stocks Fall Except in China; Crude Oil Firms on Fears of Escalating Mideast Conflict

Forex Today: Powell’s More Hawkish Tone Boosts Greenback

Sep 30, 2024 | 23:33 pm

Fed Chair Powell Signals No Rush To Cut Rates ; US Dollar & Treasury Yields Advance; German Preliminary CPI Lower Than Expected

Forex Today: China Soars, Japan Slumps

Sep 29, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Japanese Nikkei 225 Index Plunges by Over 4%, Chinese HSI Up By 4%; AUD, NZD Advance in Forex Market, Yen Surges Further on Ishiba Win

Forex Today: S&P 500 Index, Euro, British Pound Retreat from Highs

Sep 25, 2024 | 23:33 pm

S&P 500 Closes at New Record High; GBP/USD Briefly Breaks $1.3400, EUR/USD Trades at 1-Year High; Gold Remains Bullish; Markets Await SNB Policy Meeting, US Final GDP

Forex Today: Gold Reaches New Record High of $2,670

Sep 25, 2024 | 00:09 am

Gold Trades at $2,670 Record in Tokyo Session; S&P 500 Closes at New Record High; GBP/USD Powers to 2.5 Year High; Australian CPI Falls to 2.7% as Expected

Australian Central Bank Maintains Cash Rate at 4.35%

Sep 24, 2024 | 03:27 am

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35% following the latest meeting of the Bank’s Board on Tuesday. RBA’s Bullock says no cuts expected for “near term”. Australian dollar shows limited reaction as the RBA decision was expected.

Forex Today: RBA Leaves Rated Unchanged at 4.35%

Sep 23, 2024 | 23:35 pm

RBA Has Little Effect on Aussie; Gold Trades at $2,638 Record in Tokyo Session; Stock Markets Remain Bullish as S&P 500 Closes at New Record; Markets Await Australian CPI Data

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High

Sep 22, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Gold Trades at $2,631 in Tokyo Session; Stock Markets Remain Bullish; Markets Await Flash Manufacturing & Services Data

United States Federal Reserve Chops Rates by 0.50%

Sep 19, 2024 | 01:36 am

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday by 0.50%, or 50 basis points, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a target range of 4.75 percent to 5.50 percent.

Forex Today: Stock Markets Rising Again After Fed Volatility

Sep 18, 2024 | 23:22 pm

US Fed Cuts by 0.50%, Promises 0.50% More By 2025; Risky Assets Decline Then Rebound on “Sell the Fact”; Gold, S&P 500 Index Trade at New All-Time Highs; Markets Await Bank of England, Bank of Japan

Forex Today: S&P 500 Touches Record Ahead of Fed Meeting Today

Sep 17, 2024 | 23:20 pm

S&P 500 Closes Lower After Touching All-Time High; CME FedWatch Tool Shows 65% Expect Deep Rate Cut; Markets Mostly Consolidate Ahead of Fed Meeting; Canadian Inflation Dips; UK Inflation Data Awaits

Forex Today: Markets Expecting 0.50% Fed Rate Cut

Sep 16, 2024 | 23:32 pm

CME FedWatch Tool Shows 67% Expect Deep Rate Cut Tomorrow; US Dollar Loses More Ground; US Treasury Yields Fall to Fresh Long-Term Lows; Gold, Yen Decline After Making New Highs

Forex Today: Gold, Japanese Yen Rise to New Highs

Sep 15, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Trades Near $2,600 During Asian Session; USD/JPY Reaches New 1-Year Low Below ¥140; Trump Survives Assassination Attempt; Markets Await Fed; Bank of Canada Seemingly Open To Cutting Rates Faster

Forex Today: US Inflation Falls to 2.5%

Sep 11, 2024 | 23:12 pm

US Core CPI Data a Touch Hot; New Consensus Fed Won’t Cut by 0.50% This Month; Stock Markets Make Strong Gains; ECB Expected to Cut Main Refinancing Rate Today; Betting Markets See Small Swing to Harris After Presidential Debate

US Inflation Drops to 2.5% in August

Sep 11, 2024 | 11:18 am

US inflation for August rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with the market estimate. The US dollar posts gains against the major currencies today. Market odds of a 25 basis-point cut this month increase to 85%.

Forex Today: US Dollar, Stocks, Yields Fall Ahead of CPI Data

Sep 10, 2024 | 22:40 pm

US CPI Data Keenly Awaited; Japanese Yen Rallies on BoJ Comments, USD/JPY Reaches 9-Month Low; Betting Markets See Small Swing to Harris After Presidential Debate

Forex Today: US Dollar, Stocks Make Small Recovery

Sep 9, 2024 | 23:08 pm

US Dollar and Stock Markets Gain Some Ground; Spectre of Chinese Deflation Subdues Asian Stocks; Yellen Says “No Red Light” for US Economy

Forex Today: Markets Fear Fed Cutting Too Slowly

Sep 9, 2024 | 00:00 am

Fears Persist Fed Not Done Enough to Prevent Hard Landing; Asian Stocks Continue Decline, But US Futures, Yields Advance; Quiet Monday Likely

Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rate to 4.25%

Sep 5, 2024 | 00:09 am

The Bank of Canada lowered rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points, lowering its key interest rate to 4.25%.

Forex Today: Fears Grow of Hard Landing for US Economy

Sep 4, 2024 | 22:26 pm

US Yield Curve Dis-inverts; Global Stocks Continue Decline; Japanese Yen Advances Strongly; Most Commodities Continue Decline; Disappointing US Jobs Data

Forex Today: Stocks, Commodities Fall Strongly, Yen Advances

Sep 3, 2024 | 23:02 pm

Global Stocks Trade Sharply Lower; Japanese Yen Advances Firmly; Most Commodities Continue Decline; Aussie Lower on Poor GDP Numbers

Forex Today: Markets See Weak Risk-Off Sentiment

Sep 2, 2024 | 22:33 pm

Global Stocks Trade Lower; Japanese Yen and US Dollar Strongest in Forex; Most Commodities Decline

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Strengthening Again

Sep 1, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Stronger Yen as More Institutions Forecast USD/JPY Below ¥140; Hawkish Rate Comment from RBA; Commodities Lower in Early Trading

United States GDP Revised Upwards to 3%, Unemployment Claims Drop Marginally

Aug 29, 2024 | 09:27 am

According to the BEA, United States second-estimate GDP for the second quarter, released earlier today, indicated that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0%.

Inflation in Canada Drops to 2.5% in July

Aug 20, 2024 | 23:12 pm

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.5% year-on-year in July, down from 2.7% and the lowest level since March 2021.

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