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US natural gas prices rise 18% as models show a brutal January cold snap

Dec 30, 2024 | 06:20 am

The polar vortex is pushing south and east in what could be a record-breaking cold snap in parts of the United States.Several models are converging around cold weather in the eastern half of the US in the second week of January. The peak of the cold looks to be around January 12 but some of the modelling has an extended period of cold. If it unfolds, there will surely be record US natural gas demand and that could also be combined with well shut-ins due to freeze offs in Texas and the Marcellus.Needless to say, there could be macro impacts as well. Higher natural gas prices feed into headline inflation while I would also expect the cold to dampen US consumer spending.Henry hub natural gas prices on the February contract were last up 59-cents to $3.98. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling retreats against US Dollar in light volume conditions before New Year

Dec 30, 2024 | 06:07 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops to near 1.2550 after failing to extend the intraday high of 1.2600 and turns negative against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday's North American session.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP gains against US Dollar in light volume conditions

Dec 30, 2024 | 06:06 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises to near 1.2600 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

Gold has risen in December for seven straight years -- that streak is about to end

Dec 30, 2024 | 06:04 am

Barring a miracle turnaround in the final two trading days of the month, gold will finish lower in December. That's unusual because there has been a strong seasonal tailwind for gold in December forever and it's risen in the month in every year since 2016.Now, it's not hard to understand why gold is lower this month. The Fed took a hawkish turn, the US dollar has strengthened and bonds sold off. Gold priced in yen, for instance, is up 3.4% in the month.There is also plenty of good news for gold bulls on the year, as it's gained 26.5% -- that's the best year since 2010.Perhaps another good sign is that the prior two times where it declined in December -- 2015 and 2016 -- it rallied strongly in January, by 6.6% and 5.4%, respectively.Technically, there is some consolidation ongoing after a big run-up since March.Fundamentally, I think the most-important driver right now is that China's central bank has resumed buying gold. We should get an update on December purchases around the 7th of January and it will be an important signal if they continue to buy.I will also be watching Russia in January and for signs that Trump could end the Ukraine war (so far, it's not looking likely). This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD struggles to hold 1.4400 amid muted trading activity

Dec 30, 2024 | 05:50 am

The USD/CAD pair faces slight pressure near the key support of 1.4400 in Monday’s North American session.

Pending home sales highlight a light US economic calendar

Dec 30, 2024 | 05:09 am

Happy Monday in a stunted week that will be the final one of 2024 and the first one of 2025.It's the final full trading day of the year and it's been quiet so far in FX. That's not the case in equities where S&P 500 futures are down nearly 1%.It's all about positioning and re-positioning today so I wouldn't read too much into the moves, though I strongly suspect we will see profit-taking in high-flying names early in the year, if only due to tax considerations.Today's economic calendar will be a non-factor as we get the Chicago PMI (9:45 am ET), pending home sales (10 am ET) and the Dallas Fed (10:30 am ET). For more, see the economic calendar. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

What is moving the markets? Where are the markets moving?

Dec 30, 2024 | 05:03 am

The new week is underway and it will be dissected on Wednesday by New Years Day holiday on January 1. The US stock market will have a full day on New Years Eve (closing at 4 PM ET), but the US bond market will close early at 2 PM ET to start the festivities. Some important international markets will be shut, or close early, on New Year's Eve. Exchanges in London and Hong Kong, for instance, will close early, while there will be no trading in Japan. With a limited economic schedule on the 31st (S&P/CS home price data will be the only economic release scheduled), barring any geopolitical event, the markets will be influenced by year-end flows. Overnight:Japan's factory activity contracted with the au Jibun Bank PMI rising to 49.6 from 49.0 in November. The estimate was slighltly lower at 49.5The index remained below the 50.0 growth threshold for the sixth month.In trading today, US pending home sales will be released at 10 AM ET with the estimate at 0.9% vs last month up 2.0%Looking at the markets US stocks are continuing the flows seen at the end of last week with the Nasdaq falling sharply in pre-market trading. On Friday the Nasdaq tumbled -298.33 points or -1.49%. The Dow fell -333.59 points or 0.77% and the S&P fell -66.75 points or -.1.11%. In early trading today, the major indice futures are heading lower with the last hour stepping up the declines in volatile trading. A snapshot of the futures are now implying:Dow -292 pointsS&P -49 potinsNasdaq -178 points.Looking at the European equity markets a snapshot shows mixed results:German DAX, -0.42%France's CAC, -0.1%UK FTSE 100, -0.26% Spain's Ibex, +0.22%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.18%In the US debt market, the 10 year yield at the end of last week moved up 100 basis points from the time the Fed started to cut rate with the yield running from 3.62% to 4.62% (the high yield reached 4.639%). In trading today, the 10 year is down -4.6 bps to 4.583%. A snapshot of the yield curve shows:2-year 4.289%, -4.1 basis points 5-year 4.410%, -5.5 basis points10 year yield 4.583%, -4.6 basis points30 year yield 4.788%, -3.3 basis pointsLooking at the forex market, the USD is mostly lower vs the major currencies with only a small gains vs the CHF. The greenback is lower vs the other currencies with declines of -0.43% vs the NZD and -0.32% vs the AUD leading the way.EUR -0.20%JPY -0.18%GBP-0.11%CHF +0.16%CAD -0.14%AUD -0.32%NZD -0.43%Looking at other markets:Crude oil up $0.20 at $70.81Gold is near unchanged at $2621.30Silver is up $0.09 at $29.43Bitcoin is trading at $93612 after closing at $94168 on Friday. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD gains on hot Spain inflation data, decline in US Dollar

Dec 30, 2024 | 04:54 am

EUR/USD jumps to near 1.0450 in the New York session on Monday. The major currency pair gains as the preliminary Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for December has come in hotter than expected.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Surges above 0.5650

Dec 30, 2024 | 03:21 am

The NZD/USD pair climbs to near 0.5660 in Monday’s European session.

Major market cycles aligning with key price targets

Dec 30, 2024 | 02:27 am

As we enter January, we have a series of very unusual long term cycles come together.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades near weekly low around $29.50 in quiet trading mood

Dec 30, 2024 | 02:23 am

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously near Friday’s low around $29.50 in thin volume conditions before New Year on Monday.

Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to -1.2% in November from previous -2.3%

Dec 30, 2024 | 02:00 am

Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to -1.2% in November from previous -2.3%

Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:33 am

Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

If there's one word that we might be hearing a lot in 2025, this might be it

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:32 am

Well, you definitely won't hear central bankers admitting or acknowledging it. However, you'll most certainly hear plenty of whispers or even loud conversations in the background on this.The UK looks to be leading the stagflation charge but there are other major economies also staring down the same path. Germany and Australia are among the ones that stand out but if Trump's policies do reignite price pressures in the US, there's going to be plenty of the same scrutiny there as well.It'll be interesting to see how central banks sidestep this particular word and how they try to pivot the conversation to something else. But considering how the economic outlook is progressing globally, this is one word that we might come to hear a lot more in 2025.What is the buzz word that you think we'll be hearing a whole lot more in the year ahead? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese Yen steadies against US Dollar amid thin trading ahead of New Year holiday

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:08 am

The Japanese Yen (JPY) moves little against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday.

Spain Current Account Balance increased to €4.93B in October from previous €4.1B

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:05 am

Spain Current Account Balance increased to €4.93B in October from previous €4.1B

Spain Current Account Balance: €4.9B (October) vs €4.1B

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:04 am

Spain Current Account Balance: €4.9B (October) vs €4.1B

AUD/USD remains stronger around 0.6200 after breaking its losing streak

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:02 am

The AUD/USD pair halts its five-day losing streak, trading around 0.6200 during the European hours on Monday.

SNB total sight deposits w.e. 27 December CHF 445.7 bn vs CHF 456.5 bn prior

Dec 30, 2024 | 01:00 am

Domestic sight deposits CHF 436.4 bn vs CHF 448.0 bn priorIt's an interesting drop in sight deposits, with the headline number being the lowest since 2015. The swing could also be impacted by thinner liquidity conditions but also perhaps after the tiered remuneration changes by the SNB this month. After the 50 bps rate cut here, lenders who now park more cash at the SNB than what the threshold allows for will see that exceeding amount earn 0% interest. So, there's that. But the sight deposit levels are also a form of gauge of forex intervention by the SNB but the drop here sort of runs against the argument that they are viewing the franc as being too strong again. For some context, a material trending rise in sight deposits can often be interpreted as the SNB intervening to weaken the franc. And that is not what we're seeing here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD holds losses near 1.4400 due to improved crude Oil prices

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:34 am

USD/CAD breaks its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.4400 during the European hours on Monday.

Forex Today: Santa Rally Falters - 30 December 2024

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:30 am

Markets Turn From Risk on Friday, Global Stock Markets Lower, Bitcoin Trading Near December Low; Quiet Markets Likely Today

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY): -2% (November) vs -2.3%

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:01 am

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY): -2% (November) vs -2.3%

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in December

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:01 am

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in December

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in December

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:01 am

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in December

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.4% in November from previous 0.3%

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:01 am

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.4% in November from previous 0.3%

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.6%) in December: Actual (2.8%)

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:01 am

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.6%) in December: Actual (2.8%)

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.6%) in December

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:01 am

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.6%) in December

Spain December preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.6% y/y expected

Dec 30, 2024 | 00:00 am

Prior +2.4%HICP +2.8% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.4%The concern for the ECB is that core annual inflation here is seen ticking higher to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in November. Here's a look at the inflation trend in Spain:The disinflation path looks to have stalled as we close out the 2024 year. The ECB has said that things will be more bumpy in the latter stages of the year, so this validates that sentiment. It's now a question of how long this supposed "bumpy" path will persist in 2025. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold price holds gains due to increased risk aversion ahead of the Trump administration

Dec 29, 2024 | 23:56 pm

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers its recent losses from the previous session, although trading volume is lighter on Monday than usual ahead of the New Year holiday.

USD/INR extends rally on spike in US Dollar demand

Dec 29, 2024 | 23:26 pm

The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure on Monday after hitting a historic low of 81.00 in the previous session.

USD/CHF holds below 0.9050 amid year-end holiday season

Dec 29, 2024 | 23:21 pm

The USD/CHF pair trades with mild losses around 0.9020 amid the cautious mood during the early European trading hours on Monday.

Who are the Fed voters in 2025?

Dec 29, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Let's get straight into it, shall we? Here is a look at the voting committee for the current year that has gone by:Jerome Powell (Fed chair)John Williams (Fed vice chair, New York Fed)Michael Barr (Board of Governors)Michelle Bowman (Board of Governors)Lisa Cook (Board of Governors)Philip Jefferson (Board of Governors)Adriana Kugler (Board of Governors)Christopher Waller (Board of Governors)Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed)Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed)Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed)Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed)In 2025, it will shape up to be:Jerome Powell (Fed chair)John Williams (Fed vice chair, New York Fed)Michael Barr (Board of Governors)Michelle Bowman (Board of Governors)Lisa Cook (Board of Governors)Philip Jefferson (Board of Governors)Adriana Kugler (Board of Governors)Christopher Waller (Board of Governors)Susan Collins (Boston Fed)Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed)Alberto Musalem (St Louis Fed)The changes are highlighted in Italic as it pertains to the usual voting committee rotation. The others are always untouched no matter how things play out.Among those voting next year, it will be the first time for Schmid and Musalem. As for Collins, she was last a voting member back in 2022. And Goolsbee was last a voting member back in 2023.But the more important question is what is the balance of views among them and those rotating out?The current outlook is that the Fed is likely to hold a more hawkish tone going into next year. That especially as reflected by the latest dot plots and the fact that they will look to pause in January to start with.Of those rotating out, the standout is arguably Hammack as she was the only one who voted against the latest Fed rate cut in December. She argued that policy needed to stay "moderately restrictive" until there is further evidence of inflation converging towards the 2% target.Meanwhile, Bostic, Barkin, and Daly may be regarded as more centrists but with a slight skew towards siding with what the main stance is for the Fed. And in this case, it is leaning more towards where Powell is standing I would say.As for those rotating in, Schmid is definitely the most hawkish among the four but less so as compared to Hammack. Then, you have Goolsbee who is definitely hanging a little closer to the dovish scale. But Musalem and Collins are perhaps a little more hawkish than your average centrists, particularly the former.There's talk of the voting committee being increasingly more hawkish next year but amid the changes, it's hard to see that outright being the base case scenario.I reckon Powell will still have a big say on how things will go down at the end of the day. And the thing with the overall Fed view now is that a lot will hinge on upcoming data still.We did move away from focusing on inflation to labour market data but expect next year to be a bit of a balance of both. That especially as price pressures look to be stalling or at least taking a bumpier path in approaching 2%. And not to mention the threat of Trump's tariffs and tax cuts as well.So, those will be the more important focus points as we look towards next year as opposed to who's who on the voting board considering the rotation above. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Forex Today: No signs of life in markets as end of 2024 approaches

Dec 29, 2024 | 23:03 pm

Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 30: Major currency pairs remain stuck in tight ranges to begin the week as trading volumes remain thin heading into the end of 2024.

Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 97.1 to 98.8 in December

Dec 29, 2024 | 23:00 pm

Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 97.1 to 98.8 in December

NZD/USD attracts some buyers above 0.5650 amid quiet session

Dec 29, 2024 | 22:13 pm

The NZD/USD pair climbs to near 0.5655 during the early European session on Monday.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast:GBP/USD holds near 1.2600 in thin trading ahead of the New Year holiday

Dec 29, 2024 | 22:05 pm

The GBP/USD pair extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading near 1.2580 during the Asian session on Monday.

GBP/USD holds gains near 1.2600 due to thin trading ahead of the New Year holiday

Dec 29, 2024 | 21:41 pm

The GBP/USD pair extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading near 1.2580 during the Asian session on Monday.

Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Dec 29, 2024 | 21:05 pm

Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Dec 29, 2024 | 21:00 pm

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

China's President Xi will deliver a New Year's message

Dec 29, 2024 | 18:58 pm

Xinhua with the heads up:China's President Xi will deliver a New Year's messageScheduled for 7 pm Beijing time on Tuesday 2300 GMT and 0600 US Eastern time on Monday, December 30, 2024I wonder if he'll have anything to say on economic stimulus? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap for Monday 30 December 2024 - holiday trade persists

Dec 29, 2024 | 18:31 pm

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1889People's Bank of China Governor says room for lower rateJapan final manufacturing PMI (December 2024 ): 49.6 (prior 49.0)China’s efforts to prop up its flagging stock market has made yuan a casualtyHolzmann says European Central Bank could consider waiting longer before its next rate cutEURUSD Technical AnalysisFormer US President Jimmy Carter diesBitcoin price analysis with this support test coming soonChina’s central government urges local governments to give cash handouts for New YearTrade ideas thread - Monday, 30 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMonday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 30 December 2024Weekend:SPX index price prediction (my bullish and bearish orientation)Debt ceiling drama returns: Yellen warns of mid-January deadlineIt was a fairly subdued session with unofficial holidays thinning out interest and trading activity. News and data flow was light. Japan's manufacturing PMI for December was confirmed to have remained in contraction, although the reading improved from November. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated the Band has room to lower rates. As I noted at the time a contraint the Bank is facing is the weak yuan. Further reducing rates will be viewed by the Bank as raising the likelihood of further capital movement out of the country, which they'd prefer to avoid. In news over the weekend China's central government has urged local governments to give cash hanbdouts ahead of New Year holidays in order to bolster demand in the economy. USD/JPY update, tracking just below 158.00:As I post BTC/USD remains under US$94K. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan final manufacturing PMI (December 2024 ): 49.6 (prior 49.0)

Dec 29, 2024 | 16:30 pm

Manufacturing PMI from Japan, final for December 2024 improves from the flash reading, and from November to 49.6, still in contraction: preliminary (flash report is here) was 49.4prior 49.0From the report (in brief):Manufacturing Economy: Japan's manufacturing economy showed signs of stabilisation towards the end of 2024, with softer declines in new orders and output.Employment: Employment increased for the 9th time in 10 months, reversing the slight dip seen in November and reaching the strongest level since April.Outstanding Business: There was a continued sharp decline in outstanding business due to weak new order growth.Input Price Inflation: Input price inflation rose to a four-month high, driven by higher raw material prices and a weak yen. As a result, manufacturers raised their prices at the fastest rate in five months.Purchasing and Stocks: Purchasing activity decreased for the third consecutive month, and stock levels were depleted at the fastest rate since January 2021.Lead Times: There was only a marginal increase in lead times for inputs, despite ongoing delivery delays and shortages, with material availability improving.Future Confidence: Manufacturers were optimistic about the future, citing expectations of new product launches, business expansion, and recovery in key markets like semiconductors and automobiles.PMI: The Japan Manufacturing PMI for December was 49.6, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing.Output and Demand: Output decline softened, driven by muted demand. However, there were signs of stabilization in new orders and a slight recovery in new export demand, particularly from markets like China and the US.Employment Growth: Employment growth resumed, reaching the highest level since April, supporting increased manufacturing capacity.USD/JPY tracking more or less sideways under 158:***As background to this, a summary of the previous three months, when Japan's manufacturing sector experienced a consistent contraction, as indicated by the Jibun Bank / S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI):September 2024: The PMI stood at 49.7, signaling a contraction in manufacturing activity.October 2024: The PMI declined to 49.2, marking the sharpest deterioration in the sector's health in three months. This downturn was attributed to renewed declines in investment goods and softer falls in intermediate goods, with consumer goods experiencing broadly stagnant conditions.November 2024: The PMI further decreased to 49.0, the lowest level since March, indicating a modest yet stronger contraction. This decline was driven by sustained reductions in new orders and output, with subdued demand from both domestic and international markets. Notably, firms reduced employment levels for the first time since February, and backlogs of work fell significantly.These figures reflected ongoing challenges in Japan's manufacturing sector, including weak demand in key industries such as semiconductors and automobiles, as well as persistent cost pressures from labor, logistics, and raw materials. Despite these challenges, manufacturers have maintained a degree of optimism about future business prospects, supported by expectations of new product launches and a broader economic recovery.For Japan's Services PMI over the past three months:September 2024: The Services PMI was at 53.1, indicating solid expansion in the services sector.October 2024: The index declined to 49.7, signaling a contraction—the first since June. This downturn was attributed to slower sales and a renewed decline in export orders. Business confidence also dropped to a 31-month low.November 2024: The Services PMI rebounded to 50.5, reflecting a modest expansion. This improvement was driven by increased new business and employment, with outstanding business growing at the fastest rate in eight months. However, inflationary pressures persisted due to higher costs in fuel, labor, and logistics.These fluctuations highlight the services sector's sensitivity to domestic and international demand, as well as cost pressures impacting business sentiment and activity levels. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Former US President Jimmy Carter dies

Dec 29, 2024 | 13:07 pm

Former US President Jimmy Carter died today, he was 100.Chip Carter, a son of the former president, said his father died about 3:40 p.m. on Sunday in his Plains home. Carter had been in declining health for some time. He was US President from January 20, 1977 – January 20, 1981.Typically, a sitting US President declares a national day of mourning after the death of a former President and non-essential Federal workers are given the day off and stock and bond markets are closed.Typically, this is 5-7 days after the death of a President so it could be somewhere in the Jan 3 - Jan 7 range. This last happened on On December 5, 2018, when markets were closed in observance of the national day of mourning for George H.W. Bush.Carter lived longer than any other former US president. He was born on Oct. 1, 1924. and was elected Governor of Georgia in 1970 then switching to Federal politics and defeating Gerald Ford to win the Presidency in 1976.In his retirement he worked extensively with Habitat for Humanity building homes.In terms of markets, stagflation was the main theme of his Presidency and why he was defeated in 1980. Ultimatley, though, he appointed Paul Volcker in 1979 who hiked rates to 20% and broke the back of inflation.The Dow Jones Industrial Average began Carter's term at around 963 points and ended his term at about 950 pointsGold rose from $135 per ounce in 1977 to $850 per ounce in early 1980The dollar suffered during his term forcing the 1978 Dollar Rescue Plan that included higher interest rates and non-USD denominated bonds along with coordinated intervention This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s central government urges local governments to give cash handouts for New Year

Dec 29, 2024 | 12:28 pm

China’s central government has urged local authorities to provide financial aid to people facing high living costs, particularly in the lead-up to the New Year and Lunar New Year festivals. Municipalities that can afford it are encouraged to offer subsidies, temporarily reduce prices, and link social assistance to price levels, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.This initiative is part of broader efforts to stimulate private consumption, which is seen as key to revitalizing the economy. With potential U.S. tariffs looming, China is also shifting its policy focus toward boosting consumption and increasing public spending in 2025.While cash subsidies during festivals like Lunar New Year are common, the government took the unusual step of distributing funds ahead of the October 1 National Day Holiday to encourage private spending.***At the margin this should be a tailwind for 'China proxy' trades such as AUD, and also for China stocks. The hapless AUD has been pummeled against the strong US dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economic calendar in Asia Monday December 30 - Japan PMI

Dec 29, 2024 | 12:15 pm

Jibun Bank Final PMI from Japan for December is due today.Flash Manufacturing December: 49.4 (in contraction for 6 straight months.) November Final 49.2Background to this is that Japan's manufacturing sector experienced a consistent contraction over the previous three months, as indicated by the Jibun Bank / S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI):September 2024: The PMI stood at 49.7, signaling a contraction in manufacturing activity.October 2024: The PMI declined to 49.2, marking the sharpest deterioration in the sector's health in three months. This downturn was attributed to renewed declines in investment goods and softer falls in intermediate goods, with consumer goods experiencing broadly stagnant conditions.November 2024: The PMI further decreased to 49.0, the lowest level since March, indicating a modest yet stronger contraction. This decline was driven by sustained reductions in new orders and output, with subdued demand from both domestic and international markets. Notably, firms reduced employment levels for the first time since February, and backlogs of work fell significantly.These figures reflected ongoing challenges in Japan's manufacturing sector, including weak demand in key industries such as semiconductors and automobiles, as well as persistent cost pressures from labor, logistics, and raw materials. Despite these challenges, manufacturers have maintained a degree of optimism about future business prospects, supported by expectations of new product launches and a broader economic recovery. ***The latest from Japan (these from Friday):Wrap highlights:December inflation in Tokyo accelerated for a second month, the government temporarily phased out utility subsidies;the ‘Summary of opinions’ from the Bank of Japan December meeting (when the bank maintained its policy rate at 0.25%) showed the policy board members remaining optimistic in its assessment that the economy and inflation are moving in line with its projections – amidst caveats of course – supporting market expectations for a near-term rate hike, perhaps as soon as the January 23-24, 2025 meeting.More:Japan finance minister Kato - alarmed by FX moves, driven by speculatorsJapan inflation data and BoJ December summary raise expectations of a January rate hikeBoJ December 2024 Summary of Opinions - 'Gradual increase in CPI'Japan Retail sales for November: +2.8% y/y (expected +1.6%)Japan Industrial Production for November (preliminary): -2.3% m/m (expected -3.4%)Japan data: October Unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%)Tokyo area December inflation data: Headline 3.0% y/y (expected 2.9%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade ideas thread - Monday, 30 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Dec 29, 2024 | 12:07 pm

It's another patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. Liquidity and interest is going to remain thin. It'll pick up a little from January 2 and 3 but will approach normal from the 6th. I'll be posting this week, but only lightly.If you would like to share trade ideas, this is the thread for you! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 30 December 2024

Dec 29, 2024 | 12:01 pm

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Of course, its even more precarious than usual with all the holidays around the pace. It'll be another patchy holiday week to come. Liquidity and interest is going to remain thin. It'll pick up a little from January 2 and 3 but will approach normal from the 6th. Guide , little change from late Friday:EUR/USD 1.0424USD/JPY 157.76GBP/USD 1.2582USD/CHF 0.9013USD/CAD 1.4415AUD/USD 0.6215NZD/USD 0.5628 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Debt ceiling drama returns: Yellen warns of mid-January deadline

Dec 27, 2024 | 16:02 pm

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen fired off a warning shot to Congress today, flagging a critical debt ceiling timeline that could rattle markets in early 2025.Debt ceiling reinstates Jan 2Default risk window: Jan 14-23Treasury to deploy 'extraordinary measures' if neededThe timing adds another layer of complexity to an already heated political environment following the presidential inauguration. Markets have largely shrugged off previous debt ceiling standoffs, but the compressed timeline could spark volatility."Extraordinary measures" - Treasury's emergency toolkit - will kick in if Congress fails to act, but these are temporary fixes, for perhaps 4-6 weeks. The real test will be whether the new Congress can navigate the political minefield around raising the ceiling, especially as Trump wants it eliminated.It will be worth watching how the new administration's relationship with Congress impacts the speed of negotiations -- we will see who are the real fiscal hawks.The market also assumes that Trump isn't serious about bringing down the deficit, something this round of negotiations could reject or reinforce. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At the close: Nasdaq leads US stocks lower

Dec 27, 2024 | 13:09 pm

Closing changes:S&P 500 -1.1%Nasdaq Comp -1.5%DJIA -0.8%Russell 2000 -1.6%Toronto TSX Comp -0.2%On the week:S&P 500 +0.7%Nasdaq Comp +0.8%DJIA +0.4%Russell 2000 +0.1%Toronto TSX Comp +0.8%We get two more days of trading before the scoreboard resets at zero. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

WTI crude oil settles nearly $1 higher as weekly inventory data shows tightness

Dec 27, 2024 | 12:09 pm

WTI crude oil settled 98-cents higher today to $70.43.Oil traded up to $88 early last year but has been treading water near $70 for months. The opening level of the year was $71.65 so it's on track for a small decline this year.Today's EIA US oil inventory data:Crude -4237K vs -1867K expectedGasoline +1630K vs -1080K expectedDistillates -1694 vs -313K expectedRefinery utilization +0.7% vs -0.4% expectedGlobal inventories are tighter than some of the commentary suggests but OPEC+ is holding back plenty of spare capacity. A key question early next year surrounds US policy towards Iran and whether Trump will try to eliminate Iranian barrels from the global market. China is the main buyer at the moment so that may prove to be a tall task.Technically, it's a waiting game to see if $65 holds but if it can through the next few months the spring seasonal tailwinds should help. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

European shares close higher

Dec 27, 2024 | 09:17 am

The European major indices are closing higher on the day. That runs counter to the moves seen in the US stock indices which are down sharply as money rebalances out of US and into Europe (at least today).The final numbers are showing: German DAX, +0.68%France's CAC, +1.0%UK's FTSE 100, +0.16%Spain's Ibex, +0.5%Italy's FTSE MIBFor the trading year with two more days left in the year:German DAX, +19.3%France's CAC, -2.49%UK's FTSE 100, +5.39%Spain's Ibex, +14.1%Italy's FTSE MIB, +12.55%Meanwhile, the US major indices are getting hammered with the NASDAQ index down -2.22% real away Dow industrial average -1.23%S&P index -1.65%NASDAQ index -2.22%Russell 2000-2.19%For the trading year major US indices are showing gains of: Dow industrial average +13.56%S&P index +24.48%NASDAQ index +30.36%Russell 2000, +10.02% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US weekly natural gas inventories -93 bcf vs -98 bcf expected

Dec 27, 2024 | 07:36 am

Natural gas prices have been a recent winner and there is talk of longer-range forecasts showing a particularly-cold January in the northeastern United States. Today's number is something of a disappointment though after last week's 125 bcf draw.As for oil, it's holding up today despite the ugly mood in markets and the EIA weekly crude data is at 1 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks open lower. Nasdaq hit the hardest.

Dec 27, 2024 | 06:37 am

The major US stock indices are opening lower with the Nasdaq index trading down near 1% on the day. A snapshot of the market 5 minutes into the open :Dow industrial average -200.03 points or 0.45% at 43125.77S&P -43.20 points or -0.72% at 5994.39Nasdaq -200.68 points or -1.00% at 19819.68Russell 2000 -14.32 points or -0.63% at 2265.86Some losers today: Nvidia, -1.73%Microsoft, -1.51%Amazon, -1.38Meta, -1.12% %Alphabet, -1.12%Apple -1.79% Apple, -0.79% Tesla, -2.22%Netflix, -2.25% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stock futures point to a sour open

Dec 27, 2024 | 06:21 am

US equities battled back after a slump at the open yesterday and they will have to do it again today.S&P 500 futures are down 33 points, or 0.6% in the premarket. Today is the third-last trading day of the year but and it's notable that settlement changes now make Monday as the final day for trades to settle in 2024.So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 0.1% but that will be erased at the open. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US Wholesale inventories for November -0.2% vs +0.2% estimate

Dec 27, 2024 | 05:47 am

Prior month wholesale inventories +0.1% revised from 0.2% Wholesale InventoriesNovember Level: Estimated at $901.6 billion, a 0.2% decrease from October and a 0.9% increase from November 2023.October Revision: Growth revised down from +0.2% to +0.1%.Retail InventoriesNovember Level: Estimated at $827.5 billion, a 0.3% increase from October and a 7.2% increase from November 2023.October Estimate: Unchanged at +0.2%.Retail inventories ex autos rose 0.6% vs 0.3% last month (was 0.1%) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US Advanced goods trade balance for November -$102.86B vs -$100.6B estimate

Dec 27, 2024 | 05:41 am

Prior month -99.08BGoods trade deficit -102.86B vs -$100.6B estimateExports: Rose to $176.4 billion in November, $7.4 billion higher than October.Imports: Increased to $279.2 billion in November, $12.0 billion higher than October.A few months ago, the deficit increased due to port strikes coming into the Christmas season. The move higher this month, may have been influenced by the expected Trump tariffs. Pres. Elect Trump will be focused on bringing more manufacturing back to the US with the carrot of lower taxes if goods are manufactured in the US. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Forex Today: Year End Stock Market Rally Continues

Dec 26, 2024 | 00:29 am

Most Major Equity Indices Higher, Japan & China Higher by Over 1%; Bitcoin Gains on MicroStrategy Plans; Bank of Japan’s Ueda Gives No Clue on Rate Hike

Canada’s GDP Stronger than Expected in October but Contracts in November

Dec 23, 2024 | 23:45 pm

Canada’s GDP rises 0.3% in October, contracts 0.1% in November, and Canadian dollar edges lower in aftermath of GDP report.

Forex Today: Stock Markets Gaining Before Christmas Holiday

Dec 23, 2024 | 23:36 pm

Most Major Equity Indices Higher; Canadian GDP Stronger Than Expected; US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 6-Month High

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Continues Recovery

Dec 22, 2024 | 23:39 pm

Friday’s Lower US PCE Data Restores Faith in Fed Rate Cuts, Stocks Higher; Canadian GDP Release Today Last Major Data Before Christmas

AUD finally finds support but not before testing a break below US$0.62

Dec 19, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar edged higher through trade on Thursday, finding support after testing new lows below US$0.62. Having collapsed following the Fed’s hawkish cut on Wednesday, the AUD tested a new 2-year low of US$0.6199 before supports kicked in and helped lift the AUD back toward US$0.6250. With little on the domestic ticket, offshore drivers again controlled direction and the AUD found support in a stronger CNY fixing. The Peoples Bank of China continue to keep a strong hold on the yuan to avoid a rapid and steep depreciation and prevent a move through US7.30. Having traded near US$0.67 leading into the US presidential election, the AUD has suffered a sharp and dramatic correction through the last two months of 2024. Unfortunately the outlook remains bearish moving into 2025 as the uncertainties and vagaries of a Trump administration cast a pall across global trade expectations and China’s growth outlook. We are keenly attuned to any commentary over the holidays that hints to tariffs and trade policy and expect volatility will continue leading into and after the January 6 inauguration. This is our last market update for 2024. A huge thank you to all readers for your support this year. Have a happy and safe holiday. We will be back in mid-January. Key Movers The USD DXY Index rose again through trade on Thursday, extending its post FOMC/Fed upturn. Gains were largely attributed to broader JPY weakness after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda dented market expectations a rate hike may be coming in January. Ueda noted “it will take some time to see the full picture of recent wage negotiations and the impacts of Trump Administration”. While data continues to support a rate adjustment, officials seem wary of moving too quickly. The yen fell sharply following the meeting, with the USD nearly 2% higher, pushing up through 157.50 and marking a fresh 5-month high. The Great British pound is also lower after the Bank of England policy meeting saw three members move against the majority and call for a rate cut. Markets lifted expectations for 2025 price cuts, but with Governor Bailey announcing “a gradual approach to future interest rate adjustments remains right,” movement across yields was contained. The GBP moved half a percent lower and is now trading back near 1.25 down from 1.2630 leading into the policy meeting. Our attentions turn now to the US PCE deflator report as a key marker of inflation, while NZ trade and consumer confidence data, Japan CPI and UK retail sales number round out the ticket. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6100 - 0.6300 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6080 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9850 - 2.0300 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0980 - 1.1120 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8920 - 0.9020 ▲

United States Federal Reserve Trims Rates by 0.25%

Dec 19, 2024 | 04:09 am

The US Federal Reserve lowers rates by 0.25% on a near-unanimous vote but signals a slower pace of cuts in 2025. The US dollar jumps while stocks slide.

Forex Today: Fed Bursts a Bubble

Dec 18, 2024 | 23:27 pm

US Federal Reserve Reduces 2025 Rate Cut Forecast, Stocks Plunge, US Dollar Soars; Bank of Japan Passes on Rate Hike; Brazilian Real Falls to New Record Low; Cocoa Futures Advance to Fresh High; Bank of England, US Final GDP In Focus

AUD collapses as Fed hints at higher rates through 2025

Dec 18, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar dropped through trade on Wednesday, falling through US$0.63 following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December policy meeting. The AUD tracked sideways through the domestic session and bounced between US$0.6305 and US$0.6340, leading into the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) final policy update for 2024. As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but shifted its guidance for rate cuts through the short end of the yield curve. The Fed’s dot plot showed policymakers anticipate only needing to lower rates twice next year while increasing the long run neutral rate through 2025, 2026 and 2027. Markets were forced to adjust positions, driving the AUD through US$0.63 and US$0.6250 to mark new lows below US$0.6240. The AUD now sits only marginally above its October 2022 low, and is now at its lowest point since the early days of the pandemic. With the US economy proving remarkably resilient and the outlook for global trade and tariffs casting a pessimistic pall across the Asia Pacific, the outlook for the AUD through the first half of 2025 is incredibly bearish. Our attention now turns to the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Norwegian Norges Bank and the Swedish Riksbank, as they all proffer their final monetary policy announcements for 2024. Key Movers The US dollar rose sharply on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting for 2024. Policymakers lowered rates by 25 basis points as anticipated but adopted a hawkish tone when assessing the outlook for future cuts. Officials halved the number of anticipated cuts for 2025 and increased longer run neutral rate expectations through the next 3 years. With the US economy proving remarkably resilient and inflation tracking with target, US yields rose sharply driving the USD DXY index 1% higher as major pairs collapsed. The AUD and NZD led the decline, with the EUR, GBP and yen not far behind. The euro gave up 1.3% plunging through 1.04 to mark new lows just above 1.0360 while the GBP dropped 1.15 sliding off 1.27 and 1.26 to hit session lows marginally above 1.2580. Our attentions turn now to the Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave rates on hold, despite data making a case for a hike. Recent commentary from BoJ officials suggest the bank has a preference to holding back rate hikes into 2025. We expect the BoJ will signal a hike in January, with rates climbing to 0.75% by the end of next year. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave rates on hold at 4.75%, stronger wages and inflation data have forced a correction in rate cut expectations for 2025. We are keenly attuned to commentary and guidance from BoE officials. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6200 - 0.6400 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5980 - 0.6080 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9900 - 2.0500 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0980 - 1.1080 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8920 - 0.9070 ▼

Forex Today: Markets Await Fed Data

Dec 17, 2024 | 23:38 pm

US Federal Reserve Expected to Make 3rd Rate Cut of 0.25%, Lower 2025 Cuts Forecast; US Stocks Looking Bullish; Bitcoin Trades Above $108k But Reverses; Cocoa Continues to Leap Higher; Brazilian Real Plunges to Record Low

AUD makes new 12 month low as eyes turn to Fed policy meeting

Dec 17, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar retreated through trade on Tuesday, marking a fresh 12-month low. Concern surrounding the resurrection of the US/China trade war and pessimism surrounding China’s growth outlook continue to weigh on the AUD forcing it below supports at US$0.6347 to a new 2024 low at US$0.6332. Copper and iron ore prices closed lower while oil declined across commodities as China's weaker demand and softer activity data hampered demand. The AUD continues to test lower lows and appears poised to extend its decline below US$0.63. Our attention today turns to the latest European inflation data and the Federal Reserve policy meeting. We expect the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. As we look ahead to 2025, and the promise of new tariffs coupled with a resilient economic backdrop the outlook for the Fed is uncertain. The September dot plot suggested the Fed would look to issue 100 points of cuts in 2025, while current market pricing has just 60 points marked in. Any hint the Fed will shift toward a more measured cutting cycle will only further weigh on the AUD. Key Movers While the USD is little changed through the last 24 hours there is plenty to digest across major currencies. The Great British pound outperformed all other majors, pushing back above US$1.27 following a stronger-than-anticipated UK employment and wage print. While core global yields retreated UK gilts rose after UK wages accelerated for the first time in more than 12 months. The uptick in wages adds some uncertainty surrounding tonight’s CPI print and prompted investors to temper rate cut expectations in 2025. With the GBP on the front foot, the Japanese yen retreated countering gains and allowing the DXY index to track sideways. With Canadian dollar joined the AUD and NZD in tracking lower, giving up half a percent. While core CPI inflation printed largely in line with expectations Finance Minister Freeland's shock resignation cast a pall on Prime Minister Trudeau's future and the outlook for the domestic economy. Our attention now turns to a packed macro docket. European and UK inflation data lead the line while the Fed December policy meeting and statement round out the day. We expect markets will remain volatile leading into and out of the respective prints with great focus on any Fed guidance for 2025. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6280 - 0.6400 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9800 - 2.0100 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0980 - 1.1080 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9100 ▼

Forex Today: NASDAQ 100, Bitcoin, Cocoa Futures Power to New Record Highs

Dec 16, 2024 | 23:27 pm

NASDAQ 100 Index Breaks 22100; Bitcoin Trades Above $107k; Cocoa Continues to Leap Higher; Markets Await Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales Data

AUD decline stalled as supports kick in

Dec 16, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar was well contained through trade on Monday, edging marginally higher on a broader USD dip. With little of note on the domestic docket, the AUD edged off lows just above US$0.6360 to trade back toward US$0.6370, yet showed little signs of any meaningful recovery. Yields were little changed, while China activity data saw retail sales mark an unexpected fall through November. Consumption remains sluggish in China as House prices continue to decline. With the Chinese yuan edging lower, the PBOC successfully prevented any further route and broke above 7.29. Yuan stability helped the AUD and our attention turns now to local consumer confidence data, German IFO and ZEW surveys, UK labour data, Canadian CPI and US retail sales as key markers headlining a crowded macro ticket. Key Movers Price action among currencies was well contained through Monday with the USD DXY index maintaining a narrow trading handle, edging just one-tenth of a per cent lower. The Japanese yen was the day's underperformer, giving up 0.3% with little obvious catalyst. Global PMI’s were mixed with services data printing higher while manufacturing activity slowed. European Services data surprised investors, climbing back into expansionary territory after a softer print in November. The euro climbed off lows below 1.05, to mark intraday highs just above 1.0520. Our attention now turns to German IFO and ZEW surveys, UK labour data, Canadian CPI and US retail sales as key markers headlining a crowded macro ticket. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6300 - 0.6450 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9700 - 2.0100 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0980 - 1.1080 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9020 - 0.9120 ▲

Forex Today: Bitcoin Breaks $105,000 For First Time

Dec 15, 2024 | 23:15 pm

Bitcoin Makes New Record High During Asian Session; NASDAQ 100 Index Looking Bullishly Divergent; Cocoa in a Strong Bull Run

Aussie dollar continues to trade below US$0.64

Dec 15, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6346 at time of writing. The Australian dollar exhibits a subdued performance in Friday’s session, pressured by a strengthening US dollar (USD). Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) will shift toward a more hawkish stance after Wednesday’s interest rate cut. Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6350/0.6410 range. Last week Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data show the number of people in employment increased by 35,600, while the number of unemployed fell by 27,000, in seasonally adjusted terms. In November, the Reserve Bank was forecasting the unemployment rate to creep up to 4.3 per cent by the end of this year, and for wages growth to keep slowing as labour market conditions ease. Economists say the chance of the RBA cutting interest rates in February have now been undermined again. Looking ahead this week and today we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. On Tuesday we will see the release of the Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, trades neutral on Friday with some minor gains in the US trading session. The US dollar seems to get some traction due to rising US Treasury yields, which seem to be offsetting the fact that markets are practically pricing in a cut in next week's Fed decision. Last week on the data front there were 242,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending December 7, the weekly data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed on Thursday. This print followed the previous week's print of 225,000 (revised from 224,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 220,000. Further details of the publication revealed that the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% and the 4-week moving average stood at 224,250, an increase of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average. A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in November as questions percolated over whether progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The producer price index, or PPI, which measures what producers get for their products at the final-demand stage, increased 0.4% for the month, higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.2%. On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023. The PPI release comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index, or CPI, a more widely cited inflation gauge, also nudged higher in November to 2.7% on a 12-month basis and 0.3% month over month. Following the release, economists generally viewed the data this week as mostly benign, with underlying indicators still pointing towards enough disinflation to get the Fed back to its 2% target eventually. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6250 - 0.6450 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9650 - 1.9850 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8900 - 0.9100 ▲

Forex Today: ECB, SNB Expected to Cut Rates by 0.25%

Dec 11, 2024 | 23:51 pm

Policy Meetings Today at European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank, 0.25% Rate Cuts Expected; US Stock Markets, Many Global Indices Higher, NASDAQ 100 Reaches New All-Time High; US CPI Rises to 2.7% as Expected, Fed Seen Likely to Cut Rates Next Week; AUD/USD Reaches 4-Month Low

US Inflation Rises to 2.7% in November, as Expected

Dec 11, 2024 | 09:29 am

US inflation for November accelerated to 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and market expectations for a December rate cut jumped close to 100%.

Forex Today: Uptick in US Inflation Expected Today

Dec 10, 2024 | 22:50 pm

US CPI Seen Rising From 2.6% to 2.7%; Bank of Canada Expected to Cut Rates by 0.50%; AUD/USD Reaches 4-Month Low; Cocoa Futures Hit 7-Month High Following Strong Gains

Forex Today: RBA Takes a Dovish Tilt on 2025 Rate Cuts

Dec 9, 2024 | 23:35 pm

Reserve Bank of Australia Leaves Rates Unchanged, Hints at 2025 Cuts; Trump Crypto Rally Falters, Bitcoin Trades Below $95,000; NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, DAX Indices Fall; Cocoa Futures Hit 7-Month High

Forex Today: Bitcoin Breaks $100,000

Dec 4, 2024 | 23:40 pm

Bitcoin Trading at Record High Above $100,000; NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, DAX indices Continue to New Record High Prices; Powell “Cautious” on Rate Cuts; French Government Falls

Forex Today: South Korea Coup Attempt Fails

Dec 3, 2024 | 23:35 pm

South Korean Parliament Overturns Presidential Coup Attempt; NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, DAX Continue to New Record High Prices; Korean Won, Japanese Yen Stabilize; Aussie Hits 4-Month Low on Poor Economic Data

Swiss Inflation Misses Annualized Expectations

Dec 3, 2024 | 03:05 am

Swiss inflation misses expectations at 0.7%, raising the likelihood of a 50-bps SNB rate cut to counter franc appreciation and economic challenges.

Forex Today: USA, Germany, Australia See Stock Markets Hit Record Highs

Dec 2, 2024 | 23:39 pm

S&P 500, DAX, ASX 200 All Trade at All-Time High Prices; Commodity Currencies Battered by Trump BRICS Tariff Threat; Bank of Japan Considering a Triple Rate Hike; Fed’s Waller Leaning Towards December Rate Cut

Forex Today: Trump Threatens BRICS Against De-Dollarisation

Dec 1, 2024 | 23:53 pm

Trump Warns BRICS Against Pursuing Dollar Alternative in Social Media Post; Japanese Yen Loses Value During Tokyo Session; French Budget Deadlock Sends Euro Lower; Chinese Yuan Reaches 4-Month Low Price

United States Federal Reserve Minutes: Rate Cuts to Continue “Gradually”

Nov 28, 2024 | 01:21 am

Fed minutes highlight gradual rate cuts amid steady inflation, with PCE data reinforcing a likely December reduction and market volatility increasing.

Forex Today: US PCE Price Index Data Ticks Higher

Nov 27, 2024 | 23:51 pm

Core US PCE Data Edges Higher to 2.8%; Bitcoin Rising Again on Trump Admin Likely Picks; Trump’s Mexico Tweet Causes Peso Volatility

Forex Today: Australian Inflation Unexpectedly Holds Steady at 2.1%

Nov 26, 2024 | 23:48 pm

Australian CPI Unexpectedly Weak; RBNZ Cutes Rates by 0.50%; Bitcoin Trades Below $91,000; FOMC Meeting Minutes Mixed, Chance of December Cut Rises to 66%; Markets Look to Crucial US Data Later

Forex Today: Bitcoin Makes Biggest Drop Since Trump Win

Nov 25, 2024 | 23:20 pm

Bitcoin Falls to $94,000; President-Elect Trump Announces Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China; Fed’s Kashkari Sees December Rate Cut as “Reasonable”

Forex Today: Bitcoin Heading to $100,000

Nov 24, 2024 | 23:46 pm

Bitcoin Makes New Record High Above $99,000; Stocks Higher on Trump Treasury Secretary Pick; US Dollar Declines

Forex Today: Bitcoin Just Shy of $100,000

Nov 20, 2024 | 23:54 pm

Bitcoin Makes New Record High Above $98,000; US Dollar Bounces Back; UK Inflation Ticks Higher; Gold Gaining Firmly After Bounce

UK Inflation Soars to 2.3% in October

Nov 20, 2024 | 06:05 am

UK inflation rose to 2.3% year-on-year in October, compared to 1.7% in September. This was higher than the market estimate of 2.2%. The main drivers of the gain were higher housing prices and the rise in the government’s energy cap

Forex Today: Canadian Inflation Ticks Higher

Nov 19, 2024 | 22:45 pm

Canadian Median CPI up to 2.5%; Bitcoin Touches New Record High, Coils for Breakout; Stock Markets Higher; US Dollar Rally Gives Up More Gains

Forex Today: Bitcoin Keeps Coiling Below Record High

Nov 18, 2024 | 23:59 pm

Bitcoin Consolidates Below $93k Again; Stock Markets Higher; US Dollar Gives Up Some Gains

Forex Today: Bitcoin Threatens New Bullish Breakout

Nov 17, 2024 | 23:36 pm

Bitcoin Approaching $93k Again; Chinese Policy Support Gives Stocks Minor Bid; Bank of Japan Leaves Rate Hike Timing Open; US Dollar Consolidating

Forex Today: Bitcoin Within Sight of $100k

Nov 13, 2024 | 23:27 pm

Bitcoin Reaches $93k; US Annualized Inflation Rises to 2.6% as Expected, Fed Members Worry Over Cuts; US Dollar Index Rises to 2-Month High, With EUR/USD and USD/CAD Showing Year+ Highs; Non-US Stocks Weak on Trump Fears

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