Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold on April 29th

Apr 29, 2024 | 03:12 am

EUR/USDAnalysis:Since July of last year, the quotes of the European currency have been weakening relative to the US dollar. The support zone of the daily scale, which was pressed a month ago, has turned into strong resistance. Along with this, the pair's quotes have been forming a correction before continuing the decline in recent weeks, which is not yet complete.Forecast:At the beginning of the upcoming week, a continuation of the flat movement along the calculated resistance levels for the European currency is expected. Increased volatility, a change in direction, and a resumption of price decline can be expected from the beginning of next month.Potential Reversal ZonesResistance:1.0730/1.0780Support:1.0500/1.0450Recommendations:Buying: This has little potential and may lead to losses.Selling: After the appearance of corresponding reversal signals near the resistance zone, sales may become the main direction for trading.USD/JPYAnalysis:The major pair of the Japanese yen continues to develop a bullish impulse on the chart. The trend of weakening of the Japanese currency continues. Since the beginning of March, the final, unfinished section has been developing. The calculated resistance passes at the lower boundary of a powerful potential reversal zone of the weekly TF.Forecast:Throughout the upcoming week, a continuation of the overall bullish price movement vector is expected. In the first few days, a sideways flat or a brief downward retracement to the support area is not excluded. The greatest volatility is likely towards the end of the week.Potential Reversal ZonesResistance:162.50/163.00Support:157.00/156.50Recommendations:Buying: May be used in trading after the appearance of corresponding signals from your trading system.Selling: There will be no conditions for such transactions in the upcoming week.GBP/JPYAnalysis:On the daily chart of the GBP/JPY pair, the formation of an ascending wave has been continuing since September of last year. The unfinished section of the short-term trend starts counting on April 12th. In the wave structure, the last part (C) is developing, lacking the final segment.Forecast:In the next couple of days, a sideways price movement vector for the cross is expected. A brief decline, not lower than the support boundaries, is not excluded. The resumption of the price increase is most likely in the second half of the week. The highest volatility may coincide with the release of economic data.Potential Reversal ZonesResistance:200.00/200.50Support:196.50/196.00Recommendations:Selling: High-risk and may lead to deposit losses.Buy: This may become the main direction for trading on this pair after the appearance of confirmed reversal signals on the trading systems you use.USD/CADAnalysis:The direction of price movements in the main Canadian dollar pair over the past couple of years is defined by a horizontal plane algorithm. The last section of this wave is directed upward. The price has reached the boundaries of a powerful potential reversal zone in the large TF. In mid-April, a section of the chart with reversal potential began to form downward. Quotes are stuck in a channel between areas in opposite directions.Forecast:In the next couple of days, a downward price movement vector is expected. The decline can be expected within the support boundaries. In the second half of the week, there is an increased chance of a reversal formation and a resumption of the price increase. The greatest activity is more likely closer to the weekend.Potential Reversal ZonesResistance:1.3800/1.3850Support:1.3570/1.3520Recommendations:Selling: Fractional volumes may be used within individual sessions.Buying: There are no conditions for such transactions until confirmed reversal signals appear in the support area.NZD/USDAnalysis:Since last summer, a descending plane has defined the direction of price fluctuations for the major New Zealand dollar pair. On the chart, the extremes of the wave demonstrate the "horizontal pennant" pattern. The wave structure does not show completion at the time of analysis. The ascending section from April 19th has reversal potential.Forecast:At the beginning of the upcoming week, a flat movement vector with a downward trend is most likely. A decline can be expected in the calculated support boundaries. Closer to the weekend, a change in direction and a resumption of price increase may be expected against the background of increased overall instrument volatility.Potential Reversal ZonesResistance:0.6030/0.6080Support:0.5860/0.5810Recommendations:Selling: Fractional volumes may be possible within individual sessions. The potential is limited by support.Buying: This may be used in trading after confirmed reversal signals appear in the support zone.GoldThe price of gold continues its long-term upward trend. The unfinished section along the main course starts counting from October of last year. After updating all previous record highs in March, the gold price index chart went into a sideways drift.Forecast:Throughout the upcoming week, a continuation of the overall trend toward an increase in the instrument's price is expected. The first few days are more likely to have a downward price vector, with a decline not lower than the calculated support boundaries. The resumption of the upward price movement is more likely towards the end of the week.Potential Reversal ZonesResistance:2420.0/2435.0Support:2305.0/2290.0Recommendations:Selling: Carry a high degree of risk, which may lead to losses.Buying: After confirmed reversal signals appear, they may be used for trading transactions.Explanation: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed at each TF. Dashed lines show expected movements.Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of movements in time!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 29, 2024 | 02:43 am

Last Friday, the Dow Jones finished the day positive as the US PCE report came mostly in line with expectations. The market has already priced out almost all the rate cuts that were expected at the beginning of the year and it’s now expecting just one in September or December. This means that we will need more worrying data to start pricing in a rate hike and put more downward pressure on the market. For now, the dip-buyers are again in control as we continue to erase the losses from the beginning of the month. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones got rejected from the key resistance level at 38464 where we had also the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 37128 level. The buyers piled in around the recent lows and managed to erase most of the drop from the resistance. The price will need to break above the strong 38464 resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and open the door for a rally into a new all-time high.Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with the bounce around the lows as the market faded the drop on the US GDP and PCE data. We might get stuck in range here between the 38464 resistance and the 37700 support, so the market participants will be watching carefully where the price is going to break out to in the next days. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another interesting zone around the 38000 level where we got several rejections from in the past. If the price were to break below that zone, the sellers will likely pile in already to position for a drop below the support with a better risk to reward setup. Upcoming EventsTomorrow, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 29, 2024 | 01:25 am

Last Friday, the S&P 500 finished the day positive as the US PCE report came mostly in line with expectations. The market has already priced out almost all the rate cuts that were expected at the beginning of the year and it’s now expecting just one in September or December. This means that we will need more worrying data to start pricing in a rate hike and put more downward pressure on the market. For now, the dip-buyers are again in control as we continue to erase the losses from the beginning of the month. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 reached the key resistance level at 5104 where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we also have a downward trendline adding some extra confluence to the 5104 resistance. This should give the sellers even more conviction as they have a strong barrier where to lean on with minimal risk and big reward. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to push the price above this strong resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and open the door for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price action into the resistance level might have formed a bearish flag, but we will need to see the price breaking the bottom trendline to confirm it. In case of a breakout to the downside, the measured target would stand around the 4800 level. Upcoming EventsTomorrow, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

CHF/JPY Forecast: Swiss Franc Takes Advantage of Ambivalent Bank of Japan - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 01:20 am

The Swiss franc rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Friday, working out well above the ¥172 level.

DAX Forex Signal: DAX Finds Buyers - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 01:12 am

The German DAX has rallied rather significantly during the Friday session to in the week on a positive note.

GBP/USD Forecast: British Pound Threatens a Break Out - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 01:06 am

The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Friday, only to turn around to show signs of life near the 1.2450 level.

Forex forecast 04/29/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and BTC from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:59 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:18 Totay's key events: Eurogroup Meetings, German CPI, ECB's De Guindos Speaks, GDP, Spanish CPI, German HICP 01:53 EUR/USD 02:49 USD/JPY 05:56 GBP/USD 07:33 EUR/JPY 08:05 GBP/JPY 09:09 BTC/USDUseful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin Forecast: Bitcoin Looks for Momentum - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:57 am

Bitcoin fell a bit during the trading session on Friday, but it still looks fairly well supported just above the 50 day EMA.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Continues Its Recovery - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:50 am

As you can see, the Nasdaq 100 has pulled back to show signs of weakness and then turned around to show signs of life.

S&P 500 Forecast: S&P 500 Finds Buyers on Each Dip - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:43 am

The S&P 500 initially fell during the early hours on Friday, but we have turned around to show signs of life.

Federal Reserve encounters troubles

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:37 am

The fact that the US dollar reacts vigorously to any inflation-related news is no longer surprising for market participants. The market has shifted focus from the scenario of how many times the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates this year to whether it should cut them at all. Fed policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their highs this Wednesday. However, much attention will be paid to any change in rhetoric following the meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Officials are also expected to announce that the Fed's $7.4 trillion balance sheet will be reduced at a slower pace in the near term, a move that is independent of the path to interest rates. More recently, a lot of policymakers have expressed the need for a cautious approach to further policy moves, hoping to avoid market turmoil. After inflation reports for the first three months of this year were hotter than anticipated, Jerome Powell said it would likely take longer to tame inflation. Clearly, the Fed now needs much more evidence that inflation has been returning to the central bank's 2% target, which would force the central bank to keep interest rates high as long as necessary. Although Fed officials have proposed delaying rate cuts, it is starting to look like a real possibility that policymakers will not cut interest rates at all this year. Most likely, if inflation does not return to normal in the short term and show a decline from the second quarter, interest rates will be out on hold at elevated levels and the timing of rate cuts will shift towards uncertainty. Although the US economy was losing steam and inflation was accelerating in Q1 2024, the rate-setting committee considers such headwinds temporary. There is hardly anyone left who believes that stagflationary risks will resolve themselves. At present, almost all members of the Federal Open Market Committee do not see the need to cut interest rates at all this year. Governor Michelle Bowman recently said she admits the risk of rising inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested there would be no rate cuts this year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic meanwhile, said he may choose to raise interest rates if inflation continues its acceleration. Futures market traders now predict just one rate cut this year, well below the 1.5 point cut they expected at the start of the year. The FOMC also talked about those declines this year at its March meeting. Fed officials will not update their quarterly interest rate forecasts at this week's meeting. However, the latest inflation data will remain a focus of discussion and the committee may reword its policy statement after the meeting to reflect heightened concerns. Meanwhile, headline inflation in the US remains too high and stubborn. Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, after the recent growth, the euro is again going through problems. Now buyers need to think about how to take the level of 1.0750. Only this will allow you to test 1.0780. From there the price can climb to 1.0800, but without support from major players it will be quite problematic. The farthest target will be a high of 1.0830. If the trading instrument declines, I expect some serious actions from large buyers only in the area of 1.0715. If there is no one there, it would be a good idea to wait for the low at 1.0680 to update, or open long positions from 1.0640. As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers fewer problems today than yesterday. The bulls need to take the nearest resistance at 1.2570. This will allow them to aim for 1.2620, but it will be problematic to break through this target. The farthest target will be the area of 1.2660, after which we can talk about a sharper surge of GBP/USD to 1.2705. If the instrument falls, the bears will try to take control of 1.2510. If this can be done, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to the positions of the bulls and push GBP/USD to the low of 1.2450 with the prospect of falling to 1.2380. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Powers Higher After Bank of Japan Flinches - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:35 am

The dollar yen initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday as traders got out of the path of the Bank of Japan meeting.

Silver Forecast: Silver Continues to Be Very Noisy - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:27 am

Silver continues to be very noisy, and we have been all over the place on Friday.

USD/JPY: An overextended intraday rally makes it vulnerable to a squeeze down with rumoured talks of FX intervention

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:26 am

USD/JPY extended its rally to hit 159.60 key long-term resistance (also the April 1990 secular swing high). Today’s Asian session’s swift upmove in USD/JPY has led to an increase in its volatility condition which increases the risk of FX intervention. Abrupt intraday movement in USD/JPY that wiped out earlier intraday gains has the hallmark of […]

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:12 am

Gold has been consolidating around a key trendline as the market continues to wait for more data to push the price in either direction. All the gains from the Israel-Iran retaliations have been erased and the market should now focus back on the macro picture where rising real yields should put a lid on further gains and might even trigger a bigger selloff. We have already priced out almost all the rate cuts that were expected at the start of the year with the market now seeing just one rate cut in September or December. This means that we will need more hot data to price out completely all the rate cuts and start pricing in the chances of a rate hike. Such a development will likely send Gold much lower from the current levels, while a deterioration in the data should lead to further gains and a new all-time high. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold continues to hover around the key trendline where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where the buyers keep on stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 2150 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the market is now trading inside a rising channel which might end up being a bearish flag if the price were to break out to the downside. The buyers will likely step in around the bottom trendline of the channel to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows with the measured target from the bearish flag standing around the 2200 level.Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have some support around the bottom trendline where we have also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. If we get another pullback into the bottom trendline, the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new higher high. The sellers, on the other hand, will wait for a breakout to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsTomorrow, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost.See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Extremely Bullish Above 0.6555 - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:11 am

The AUD/USD pair rose last week as the US dollar ended its recent comeback. It was the first weekly gain in three weeks.

DAX Forex Signal: Continues to Find Buyers - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:10 am

The German DAX has rallied rather significantly during the Friday session to in the week on a positive note.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:10 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.21; (P) 196.57; (R1) 199.17; More.. GBP/JPY’s steep retreat indicates short term topping at 200.53. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 193.51 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 200.53 will resume larger up trend. In the bigger picture, current rally is […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Why Bitcoin Price is Stuck in a Range - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:06 am

Bitcoin price remained in a consolidation phase on Monday, continuing a trend that has been going on in the past few weeks.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:05 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.37; (P) 168.38; (R1) 170.30; More… EUR/JPY’s steep retreat indicates short term topping at 171.58 already. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 165.33 resistance turned support holds. Above 171.58 will resume larger up trend to 178.39 projection level next. In the […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 29

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2501 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to buy the pound at the end of the week – especially after another round of US data, which significantly dampened buyers' sentiment. News that inflation in the US continues to surge and shows no signs of slowing down is bad news for the economy. Signs of stagflation, where the economy loses momentum while inflation rises, will continue to weigh negatively on the dollar's positions, which could help the pound recover. Today, the UK economic calendar is empty, so traders can act towards the progress of a new upward trend and buy on pullbacks. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the area around 1.2548 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2578 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2578, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today in line with the upward trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2520 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2548 and 1.2578.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2520 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2497, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high, counting on a small correction closer to the afternoon. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2548 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2520 and 1.2497.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 29

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 157.58 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the dollar in continuation of the uptrend. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips. The US inflation data triggered dollar buying and yen was being sold at the end of last week, leading to another yearly high above 159. This, as you can see, prompted intervention by the Bank of Japan, resulting in a major sell-off in the market.The central bank has not made a comment regarding the intervention. Japan's chief currency policymaker declined to comment. When asked if Tokyo intervened in the currency market after a sharp move that lowered the dollar-yen exchange rate by 2%, the response was: "No comments for now." Masato Kanda said that he currently has no plans to comment on what happened, although it is quite clear what happened. Today, the market will maintain high volatility, so there will be opportunities to make profit. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 157.25 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 158.09 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 158.09, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today as traders will be interested in buying undervalued assets. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 156.79 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 157.25 and 158.09.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 156.79 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 156.04, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 157.25 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.79 and 156.04.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8550; (P) 0.8567; (R1) 0.8576; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 0.8497 should have completed at 0.8643, after rejection by trend line resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8582 minor resistance will turn intraday […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Ethereum Forecast: Pulls Back on Friday - 29 April 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

The Ethereum market pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

Consumer confidence. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index in the EU countries is due. The indicator is based on a survey of 2.3K households that assess the economic prospects. It is a leading indicator for consumer spending, with high readings indicating consumer optimism and vice versa. The April indicator may continue its negative trend from the current −14.7 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 29

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:59 pm

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0713 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had sharply dropped from the zero mark. Nevertheless, I sold the euro because I anticipated a strong movement after the release of US inflation data. As a result, the pair fell by more than 35 pips. In the morning, eurozone data on changes in the M3 money supply aggregate and the volume of lending to the private sector did not exert pressure so the EUR/USD pair still had the chance to rise. However, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index supported the dollar as the data exceeded economists' forecasts, intensifying concerns about a prolonged period of high interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Today, market participants may look to the release of inflation data in Spain and Germany. Obviously, traders will focus on Germany, but the figures must deviate significantly from forecasts in order for the market to show a particular reaction. The fact that prices in Germany may continue to rise for the fourth consecutive month speaks for itself and indirectly all of this may affect the plans of the European Central Bank. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area around 1.0733 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0775. At the level of 1.0775, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after good data in Germany, in continuation of the uptrend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0713 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0733 and 1.0775.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0713 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0671, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high and after weak data from Germany. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0733 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0713 and 1.0671.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Rising Wedge and Bearish Engulfing Forms - 29 April 2024

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:59 pm

The EUR/USD exchange rate formed a bearish engulfing pattern after last week’s economic numbers from the US raised stagflation concerns.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6324; (P) 1.6393; (R1) 1.6436; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Video market update for April 29, 2024

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:56 pm

Potential for the downside continuation on the NAs100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:54 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9762; (P) 0.9780; (R1) 0.9797; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected with 0.9708 minor support intact. Above 0.9800 will resume the rebound from 0.9563 to retest 0.9847 high. However, break of 0.9708 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern form […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Neutral Outlook With a Bullish Bias - 29 April 2024

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:29 pm

The GBP/USD pair wavered on Monday morning even as hedge funds and other speculators turned bearish on sterling.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:07 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3637; (P) 1.3667; (R1) 1.3699; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3845 short term top is in progress. Next target is 55 D EMA (now at 1.3600). On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 instead. In […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 28, 2024 | 23:01 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6515; (P) 0.6535; (R1) 0.6554; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rise from 0.6361 short term bottom is in progress. Fall from 0.6870 might have completed at 0.6361 already. Further rally would be seen to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6516 minor support will turn intraday […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0660; (P) 1.0707; (R1) 1.0739; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0673 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 low. In the […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:55 pm

Last Friday, the Russell 2000 finished the day positive as the US PCE report came mostly in line with expectations. The market has already priced out almost all the rate cuts that were expected at the beginning of the year and it’s now expecting just one in September or December. This means that we will need more worrying data to start pricing in a rate hike and put more downward pressure on the market. For now, the dip-buyers are again in control as we continue to erase the losses from the beginning of the month. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 is now testing again the key resistance zone around the 2020 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a break below the 1920 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new cycle high. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the downward trendline where we had also the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level but eventually turned around to retest it. The price broke out of the trendline, but it will need to rise above the 2020 resistance zone to invalidate the bearish setup. If the price falls back below the trendline, it will leave behind a fakeout, which is generally a reversal pattern. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the price breaking out of the trendline and running into the Fibonacci level. This is where the sellers will continue to pile in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 1920 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new cycle high. Upcoming EventsTomorrow, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:54 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2448; (P) 1.2495; (R1) 1.2540; More… GBP/USD’s rebound form 1.2298 is resuming and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2582). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.2892 has completed already, and bring further rise to this resistance. Nevertheless, […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:38 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9130; (R1) 0.9165; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:19 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.06; (P) 157.26; (R1) 159.53; More… Yen’s steep retreat today suggests that a short term top is already in place 160.20, close to 160 psychological level. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Some support might come from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. But break […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Economic confidence index. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), April data on the economic confidence index in Turkey is due, reflecting the assessments and expectations of consumers and producers regarding the general situation, as well as corresponding trends. The value may grow from the current 100.0 points, supporting the lira. Read more

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 29, 2024

Apr 28, 2024 | 21:00 pm

USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair has surprised us with its relentless growth. The rise occurred on large volumes (the highest in April), but far from record volumes of the year. Most likely, the price surged as stop-loss orders for short positions were closed above 155.55. The price has reached the upper boundary of the global price channel at 160.45. And the pair will likely stay above this level.However, we do not see any particular ideas that are currently being embraced by either buyers or sellers. As a result, we have a range of uncertainty spanning 470 pips – from 155.75 to 160.45. If the price consolidates above 160.45, it could extend the rise to 163.85, but from a practical perspective, expecting such growth increases the risk even more – the price could fall at any moment.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in overbought territory. Several reversal patterns could technically form during a sharp rise. Preparation is also needed to continue the trend, as the price is facing strong resistance at the upper boundary of the price channel. This could involve forming a consolidation pattern like a flag or a small triangle. Either scenario requires time, so we are taking a neutral position.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 29, 2024

Apr 28, 2024 | 21:00 pm

GBP/USD On Friday, the British pound showed a trading range of more than 90 pips, piercing the resistance level at 1.2525 (38.2% Fibonacci) with the upper shadow of the daily candle, but ultimately closing the day down by 20 pips.This morning, the price is approaching the intermediate resistance, but it has a low chance of surpassing 1.2525 because the Marlin oscillator is suggesting that it may reverse from the border of the uptrend territory. Our main scenario is bearish with the nearest target at 1.2427.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is already close to the border of the downtrend area. We are waiting for the price to return below the MACD indicator line, which is moving almost horizontally just above the level of 1.2427, after some contemplation. Breaking the support opens up the target of 1.2370.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 29, 2024

Apr 28, 2024 | 21:00 pm

EUR/USDOn Friday, the euro fell by 36 pips on significant trading volumes. The reason behind this was the US inflation data, as US PCE inflation rose by 2.7% YoY in March, compared to 2.5% prior. So now the market only expects one rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, which has a 60% chance.Concerns have intensified, as some believe a potential rate hike may happen by the end of the year (in December), especially since the Fed has suggested something similar. So now we can assume that the corrective rise, which began on April 17th, has ended, and now the euro is heading towards the target range of 1.0636/56. Consolidation below it opens up the nearest target at 1.0567. The Marlin oscillator failed to reach the zero line on the daily scale, evidently due to its weakness.On Friday, on the 4-hour chart, the price turned down from the intermediate level of 1.0757, which proved to be strong. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend area, and the oscillator will help the price in overcoming the MACD line (1.0672) and then breaking through the support range.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 29. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 28, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Analyzing Friday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD started falling on Friday, which was justified by technical reasons. Over the past few days, the price has been hovering near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, so a bounce from it and a shift towards a downward movement seemed likely. This didn't even require a corresponding macroeconomic backdrop. The US reports that were released on Friday did not support the greenback. To be more precise, there were four US reports, three of which weren't enough for the greenback. Overall, the recent US reports left much to be desired. The GDP report for the first quarter was extremely disappointing, which unexpectedly slowed down to 1.6%. Actually, the slowdown in the US economy cannot be considered something extraordinary, given that the Federal Reserve's policy has been quite hawkish for quite some time. However, we still expected a higher value. And we were not alone in this.EUR/USD on 5M chartSeveral trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe. At the beginning of the European trading session, the pair bounced off the level of 1.0725 but only managed to rise by 15 pips, which was enough to set the stop loss to breakeven. Then, two sell signals were formed near the same level of 1.0725, after which the price reached the nearest target level of 1.0678. The profit from the short position was about 25 pips. The bounce from the level of 1.0678 could have been executed, but this signal formed quite late, so it was better not to enter the market before it was closed. Trading tips on Monday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists, but the EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher. We believe that the euro should continue to fall in the medium term, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. However, at the moment, the market is likely taking a break before it starts a new downward movement.On Monday, the pair may resume its downward movement as it bounced off the upper boundary of the channel. If the price consolidates below the ascending channel, it would signal the start of a new leg in the downward trend.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. The eurozone will publish an important inflation report for Germany. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.3%, which is not critical for either the European Central Bank or the euro. It may only provoke a market reaction in the case of a significant deviation of the actual value from the forecast. The market may buy the euro if inflation accelerates.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 29. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 28, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Analyzing Friday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair also fell on Friday, but this did not have a significant impact. From a technical perspective, the downward trend remains intact while the pair goes through a correction. The corrective phase may end on Monday. Currently, there are no clear technical references apart from the levels. The correction is too weak to form a trend line, and the downtrend is too short-term to establish a trend line. Therefore, the pound is moving cautiously, which naturally does not inspire traders when they open trading positions.The recent US reports were not the best. However, we can look forward to a series of important reports and events. Data on the labor market, the FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech—all of these will determine the market's attitude towards the dollar for the next few weeks. We still believe that the dollar should rise further, as we consider the global fundamental background to be positive for the dollar rather than for the British pound.GBP/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe. Novice traders could see that practically all the signals were quite accurate. Initially, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.2502, then twice from the level of 1.2541, and then from the level of 1.2457. Thus, beginners could open four trading deals on Friday. If the first and second deals resulted in a small profit, a trader could earn about 50 pips on the third one. Traders could skip the last buy signal since it formed too late, but those who chose to execute this signal still managed to make profit.Trading tips on Monday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. After surpassing the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. Today, novice traders can look for new sell signals around the level of 1.2502. The market is not in a rush to sell the pair, but the pound is gradually depreciating in the medium term, which is a good sign. The pair may continue to go through a corrective phase on Monday and Tuesday, as the macroeconomic background will be weak for both the dollar and the pound.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. On Monday, there are no important events scheduled in either the UK or the US. Therefore, traders will have nothing to react to, and volatility could be weak.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Key events on April 29: fundamental analysis for beginners

Apr 28, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Analysis of macroeconomic reports: For Monday, the lineup of macroeconomic events is practically quiet. We will only highlight the German inflation report because inflation data are currently significant for the market. Inflation is a key indicator for the European Central Bank. If inflation in Germany or the EU doesn't rise in April, then this will answer the question regarding the ECB rate cut in June. The German indicator is expected to rise, but the value of 2.3% does not differ significantly from the value of 2.2%. Therefore, in any case, the indicator will remain very close to the target level, which allows the ECB to start easing monetary policy. If inflation sharply spikes, then one should expect a new upswing in the euro, because in this case, the ECB may postpone the rate cut from June to a later date.Analysis of fundamental events:From Friday's fundamental events, only a speech by Luis de Guindos from the European Central Bank stood out. However, as we have already mentioned, the market isn't raising questions about the ECB's monetary policy, so we didn't expect the ECB vice president to provide the market with anything new or significant. Both pairs continue their bullish correction, and that's the most important thing at the moment. The downtrend is not yet over. A series of weak reports from the US should not stop the dollar's rise. General conclusion:Today, novice traders should pay attention to the German inflation report. For the euro, the technical picture is clear at the moment; it's an ascending channel that clearly shows the range and direction in which the pair may trade in the near future. As for the pound, as usual, things are more complicated, but it is also going through a corrective phase.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to expect for the euro next week?

Apr 28, 2024 | 16:07 pm

Over the past two weeks, the market has been actively correcting the euro within the framework of the downward wave 3 or C. In my opinion, it is finally time to complete this wave. Therefore, it is important for us to understand what the upcoming news background will bring. Will it be positive for the single currency or the opposite?There will be quite a few interesting reports in the European Union. On Monday, one of the most important reports at the moment will be released in Germany – on inflation. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise to 2.3% in April from 2.2% in March. An accelerated pace of inflation may support the euro, but in this case, we are talking about a minor increase. At the same time, the indicator will remain in close proximity to the target level if the forecast is realized. In addition, German inflation is just inflation in one country of the European Union, albeit the most influential one. If the CPI slows down in most other countries, then overall inflation in the EU will decrease. And this is bad for the euro, because in this case the European Central Bank will have more reasons to conduct the first round of easing in June. The euro area inflation report will be released on Tuesday. The CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% in April. Also, the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter will be released. The bloc economy may grow by 0.1%. Such a value is unlikely to have a positive impact on buyers, as this growth is practically equivalent to no growth at all. This has been the case in the EU for several quarters now. Regarding European inflation, the lack of changes means no changes in the sentiment of the ECB policymakers. The baseline scenario for interest rates will remain the same.Furthermore, reports on the Manufacturing PMI and the unemployment rate will be released. These data no longer have the same degree of influence on market sentiment as they did before. Based on all the above, if inflation in Germany and the EU does not suddenly accelerate, demand for the euro may start to fall again. This is the scenario I am counting on.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. A successful attempt to break 1.0637, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci, will indicate that the market is ready for new short positions. Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to build a descending wave. Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to expect for the pound next week?

Apr 28, 2024 | 16:07 pm

Recently, the pound has been engaged in building an internal corrective wave as part of the presumed bearish 3 or c. Unlike the EUR/USD instrument, the wave 3 or c for the British currency still looks unconvincing, possibly due to its relatively short length. Nonetheless, demand for the pound is decreasing, albeit at a slow pace. In order to work out the current wave structure, the instrument must fall further. In this case, the news background must be strong for the dollar, not the other way around. The US recently released disappointing reports, which prevented sellers from returning to the market. On Friday, the euro was falling at a higher rate than the British pound.There will be very few significant events in the UK. Market participants may only look to the release of the final values of business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors. In my opinion, these reports will have no impact on market sentiment. Therefore, the market will focus on the upcoming US events. In particular, the Federal Reserve meeting. However, I will discuss these events in a separate review. The British pound is hoping that the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, as it also relies on the current wave pattern. Sellers will have to resolve a very important issue – breaking through the level of 1.2471, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. If they succeed, the pound will continue to fall to the level of 1.2312, which is equal to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The internal wave structure of the presumed 3 or c is not yet clear. Most likely, this wave will take on a more complex and prolonged form.Based on all of the above, for those, like myself, who expect the pound to fall, it is advisable to wait for a successful attempt to break through 1.2471. Buying the instrument in the current circumstances is not something I would do, although the British pound may continue to move in the opposite direction to what is expected. I want to remind you that the British pound was in a sideways trend from November to April. And this already means that the pair's movements did not fully correspond to the news background. At the moment, we shouldn't rule out the same scenario.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. A successful attempt to break 1.0637, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci, will indicate that the market is ready for new short positions. Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to build a descending wave. Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to expect for the dollar next week?

Apr 28, 2024 | 16:07 pm

America will take the lead in delivering news to the currency market. The market is entirely focused on news surrounding the US, so this will have the greatest impact on the dollar exchange rate, which is embedded in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.If Monday and Tuesday are relatively quiet in terms of news, Wednesday will be quite eventful. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will start off the week. I want to remind you that the market puts greater importance on the ISM indices than the S&P indices, so it may show a much stronger reaction. The S&P indices showed weak values in April, but the ISM indices are not obligated to match them. They could be stronger. In addition to the ISM index, Wednesday will see the release of the ADP Employment Report on changes in non-farm payrolls and the JOLTS report on job openings in March. Both of these reports reflect the state of the labor market, which is very important for the Federal Reserve. And Wednesday evening will mark the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The market is not expecting a rate cut in the May meeting, although not long ago it anticipated the first round of monetary policy easing in March. Therefore, the most important event will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. If Powell says that the Fed is not considering a rate cut in the near future and inflation has stopped slowing down, demand for the US dollar may increase, which is what we need. I also want to note that Powell could hint at further policy tightening, since the Fed is not pleased with the current pace of inflation. Any hawkish comments will allow market participants to increase demand for the dollar once again.On Friday, the market will receive another package of crucial information. The Nonfarm Payrolls report, the unemployment rate, wage growth, and the ISM Services PMI. All four reports are of immense importance for the US economy, the Fed, monetary policy, and the dollar exchange rate. The latest GDP report was quite disappointing, so it is very important for the upcoming US reports to exceed market expectations. Without this, both instruments may struggle to return to a downward trend.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. A successful attempt to break 1.0637, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci, will indicate that the market is ready for new short positions. Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to build a descending wave. Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Fight Upwards After Long-Term Depth was Challenged

Apr 28, 2024 | 01:55 am

The downwards selling in the GBP/USD continued early last Monday, but then a reversal upwards started to be seen.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Slight Move Higher as Trading Week Concludes

Apr 27, 2024 | 23:43 pm

WTI Crude Oil finished the week of trading near the 83.640 level, this after attaining a high earlier on Friday near the 84.450 mark.

Weekly Forex Forecast - CAC, GBP/JPY, Silver, GBP/CHF, USD/MXN, EUR/GBP, Bitcoin, EUR/USD

Apr 27, 2024 | 23:20 pm

Get the weekly Forex forecast for major currency pairs for the week of April 29- May 4, 2024 here.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 05:15 am

EUR/USD recovered further to 1.0752 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 low. In […] The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 05:10 am

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 158.43. Initial bias stay on the upside this week. Next target is 138.2% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 161.14. On the downside, below 156.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. In the bigger picture, current […] The post USD/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 05:03 am

GBP/USD rebounded after edging lower to 1.2298 last week. But upside is capped by 1.2538 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2421 will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 will bring stronger rally to […] The post GBP/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 04:58 am

USD/CHF breached 0.9151 resistance briefly but retreated back into established range. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the downside for deeper […] The post USD/CHF Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Weekly Report

Apr 27, 2024 | 04:53 am

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6361 extended higher last week and further rally is expected as long as 0.6482 support holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6482 minor support will turn […] The post AUD/USD Weekly Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 04:49 am

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3845 extended lower last week and further decline is in favor as long as 1.3730 minor resistance holds. Next target is 55 D EMA (now at 1.3599). On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from […] The post USD/CAD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 04:37 am

GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 197.90. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 195.85 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pullback should be contained well above 193.51 resistance turned support to bring […] The post GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 04:29 am

EUR/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 169.38. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 169.96 high the downside, below 167.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pull back should be contained well above 165.33 resistance turned support to bring another […] The post EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

Apr 27, 2024 | 04:21 am

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8643 last week but reversed after rejection by medium term trendline resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8582 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium […] The post EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EURJPY gets close to 2008 high at 169.96. Break above and trading at 32-year-high

Apr 26, 2024 | 12:53 pm

The EURJPY has reached a high of 168.8942. That is down the price within the 100 pips of the high price going back to July 2008 at 168.941. Trading above that level would take the pair to the highest level since September 1992.Traders may look to lean against the high ceiling area from 2008 with stops on a break above (see red number circles in yellow area on the chart above). However, if it is like the USDJPY, be careful. The USDJPY moved above the 155.00 level this week (on Wednesday) and apart from a flush out immediately after the rate decision today, has been trending higher. The USDJPY price currently trades at 157.864 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD holds resistance against 50% retracement this week and rotates lower. What next?

Apr 26, 2024 | 11:16 am

The NZDUSD this week moved higher on Thursday and moved up to test the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 0.59668, before backing off on the stronger US GDP and price data. The price retraced the entire move to the downside with momentum in the Asian session today. That follow-through upside move took the prize back up to the 50% midpoint level where traders banged against the level on a number of different hourly bars in both the Asian and European morning session. However, the price could not push through that midpoint level with much momentum, and the price has since rotated to the downside with the overall dollar buying today.The move lower has come down to test a lower channel trendline. Support buyers have come in against that level.So resistance held against the 50% retracement. Support held against the upward sloping channel trendline. Those levels will be key barometers on the top and bottom side for both buyers and sellers in the new trading week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBPJPY soars to highest level in nearly 16 years, eyeing 200.00 resistance

Apr 26, 2024 | 10:21 am

The USDJPY has and continues to make new highs going back to 1990.Today, the GBPJPY joined the USDJPY in making a new multi-year high. For the GBPJPY, it traded to its highest level since September 2008 (highest level in 2008 or nearly 16 years). Looking at the monthly chart above, the price moved above the June 2015 high at 195.87. The high-price today has reached 197.0355.Looking at the monthly chart above, the 61.8% retracement of the range since the 2007 high comes in at 199.808 (close to the natural resistance at 200.00).This week, the GBPJPY rose 3.05% or 582 pips. Both of those represented the largest gain since the week of June 12, 2023. If the USDJPY is on its way to 160.00. The GBPJPY can stretch up to 200.00 too, can't it?. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysis of GBP/USD on April 26th. The pound trades on Friday without changes

Apr 26, 2024 | 10:18 am

The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex, but it may become clearer in the coming weeks. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to form a downward wave 3 or C. If this wave indeed continues to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable to work with. There has been little simplicity and clarity in recent months. For a long time, the pair was in a sideways trend and only now has real chances to form an impulsive downward wave.In the current situation, my readers can expect the formation of wave 3 or C, the targets of which are below the low of wave 1 or A. Therefore, the pound should decline by another minimum of 300-400 basis points. With such a decline, wave 3 or C will be relatively small; I expect a much larger decline in quotes. The news background supports the US currency, and after breaking through the level of 1.2469 (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological barrier for sellers has been lifted.Sellers are quick to get back into the market.The GBP/USD pair remained unchanged throughout Friday. Today in America, several reports were released that could have interested my readers, but their values practically all coincided with the market's expectations. Therefore, it wasn't easy to expect a strong reaction. Yesterday was much more interesting in this regard. The US GDP report for the first quarter showed that the economy grew by 1.6% quarterly and by 3.1% annually. It seems that the market first looked at the second value and only then realized how weak the first one was. The quarterly growth of the US economy turned out to be significantly lower than expected, which ultimately caused a decline in demand for the US currency. I do not believe that the GDP report will change the market sentiment, but yesterday, it significantly spoiled the dollar's prospects. If the US economy continues to slow down at such a pace, it will soon catch up with the British one.The GBP/USD pair currently maintains prospects for forming a downward wave 3 or C. This week, we saw a strong increase in the pound. However, more is needed to consider the current wave analysis irrelevant. If the decline resumes in the near future, the third wave will continue to form, and there will be no questions left. The news background remains more optimistic for the American currency than for the British one. The key factor is the fact of the second or third postponement of the first round of monetary policy easing by the Fed.General Conclusions The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the instrument with targets below the level of 1.2039, as wave 3 or C is beginning its formation. The successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to form a downward wave.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward correctional segment of the trend continues to form, and its second wave has acquired an extended form - at 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level could have led to the beginning of the formation of wave 3 or C.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play, and they often entail changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never one hundred percent certainty about the direction of movement. Remember protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 26th (US session)

Apr 26, 2024 | 10:07 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 155.97 occurred when the indicator was in oversold territory, allowing the scenario for buying on a rebound to continue the upward trend for the dollar observed during the Asian session. As a result, the pair rose by more than 100 points. The decision of the Bank of Japan had a negative impact on the yen. Even interventions by the regulator did not help. Now, everything depends on the US data. Inflation indicators and their growth will lead to the strengthening of the dollar in continuation of the upward trend, while weak data will allow for another correction, similar to the first half of the day. But it's better to trade in the direction of the trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 157.08 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 157.58 (thicker green line on the chart). At 157.58, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry-level. Expecting growth in the pair today will only be possible after very strong US statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.66, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to opposite levels of 157.08 and 157.58.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 156.66 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decrease in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.97, where I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.08, at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. Expect a decrease to opposite levels of 156.66 and 155.97.What's on the chart:Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument; Thick green line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument; Thick red line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 26th (US session)

Apr 26, 2024 | 09:55 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe price test at 1.2514 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 25 points. The lack of statistics understandably helped the pound, but now much depends on the reaction to the US data. Figures on the personal consumption expenditure index, the preferred inflation indicator for the Fed, changes in expenditure and income levels, as well as data on the consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, are expected. Good statistics will push the pound off its weekly maximum, dragging it down properly by the end of the day. Poor statistics – why not a reason to buy GBP/USD? As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.2525 (green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to the level of 1.2563 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2563, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pound growth today can be expected only after weak US data as part of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2501, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth to opposite levels of 1.2525 and 1.2563.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2501 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key goal for sellers will be the level of 1.2464, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves in case of strong US reports. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2525, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decrease to opposite levels of 1.2501 and 1.2464.What's on the chart:Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument; Thick green line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument; Thick red line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 26th (US session)

Apr 26, 2024 | 09:45 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro CurrencyThe first price test at 1.0742 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy it. After a short period, another test at 1.0742 under the same conditions led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling, resulting in a significant drop in the pair by more than 30 points. The released statistics on the eurozone and lending did not help the euro, and now the focus needs to shift to important reports related to inflation. The main personal consumption expenditure index, changes in population spending and income levels – these are the data that will determine the market direction. Strong reports – I buy the dollar and sell the euro. If the data coincides with economists' forecasts, the chances for buyers of the European currency to continue rising at the end of the week will increase. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0735 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 1.0775. At 1.0775, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth today can be expected only after US inflation data declines. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0713, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth to reach opposite levels of 1.0735 and 1.0775.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro today after reaching the level of 1.0713 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0671, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity near the daily maximum and strong US statistics indicating sustained inflationary pressure. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0735, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decrease to opposite levels of 1.0713 and 1.0671.What's on the chart:Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument; Thick green line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument; Thick red line – anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 26th (analysis of morning deals). The pound attempted, but it didn't go

Apr 26, 2024 | 09:34 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2524 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakdown there after an unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above 1.2524 allowed us to get a sell signal, which resulted in a 15-point drop in the pair, after which sellers' interest dried up. In the afternoon, the technical picture was slightly revised.To open long positions on GBP/USD, it is required:The lack of statistics on the UK did not help the pound gain a foothold near the weekly high and now the entire calculation is based on US data. Only very weak statistics related to inflation will allow the pound to update its weekly maximum again. In the case of strong indicators on the index of personal consumption expenditures, changes in the level of household spending and changes in the level of household income, the pressure on the pair is likely to increase, and buyers will have to think carefully about how to protect the nearest support of 1.2481. The formation of a false breakdown will give an entry point to buy with the aim of rising to the resistance of 1.2537, formed at the end of the first half of the day. A breakout and a top-down test of this range against the background of weak statistics will return the chance for GBP/USD growth, which will lead to new purchases and allow you to get to 1.2573. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breakthrough to 1.2621, where I'm going to fix profits. A test of this level will be a clear signal for the formation of a new trend. In the scenario of GBP/USD falling and no buyers at 1.2481 in the afternoon, and there are moving averages playing on the buyers' side, sellers will regain control of the market, dragging the pair back into the side channel at the end of the week. In this case, I will look for purchases in the area of 1.2428. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a suitable option for entering the market. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2383 in order to correct 30-35 points within a day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:The bears have every chance to continue the pair's decline, but for this they need to take 1.2471. If the US data disappoints, most likely GBP/USD will continue to grow within the framework of the new trend. In this case, I will postpone sales until the 1.2537 resistance test, formed at the end of the first half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will make it possible to verify the presence of large sellers in the market, which will lead to a fall in GBP/USD to the area of 1.2481, where the moving averages are located slightly lower. A breakout and a reverse bottom-up test of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell with the aim of updating 1.2428. The ultimate target will be the minimum of 1.2383, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a GBP/USD rise and the absence of bears at 1.2537 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to continue building an upward trend with upward movement toward resistance at 1.2573. I will only enter short positions there on a false breakout. If there is no activity there, I recommend opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2621, counting on the pair's rebound downwards by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 16, there was a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Pound buyers continue to leave the market, and there are objective reasons for this: recent inflation data from the UK and the US indicated the need for further combating price growth, which will surely force central banks to maintain a tough stance. Considering that the UK economy suffers from all of this much more than the US economy, it is not surprising why pressure on the British pound has sharply increased. New statements from regulator representatives also negatively affected bullish prospects for the pound. Adding to all this is the need to maintain a tough stance by the Federal Reserve, so it's unlikely to expect a strong bullish market in the GBP/USD pair. In the latest COT report, it is stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 8,200 to 71,800, while short non-commercial positions increased by 11,433 to 63,181. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 1,334.Indicator signals:Moving AveragesTrading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish market.Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator will act as support around 1.2495.Indicator Description: Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 30. Marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA - period 12. Slow EMA - period 26. SMA - period 9. Bollinger Bands. Period - 20. Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The[…]

USDJPY on pace to its largest percentage gain since October 2023

Apr 26, 2024 | 09:12 am

The USDJPY continues to run to the upside with the currency pair now up 1.32% on the day. That is the largest increase since the end of October when the pair moved up 1.75%.It is Golden Week next week and markets are closed on Monday in Japan.The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. It is what was said that has increased the bullish bias for the pair (selling of the JPY). During a press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda outlined the central bank's current monetary policy stance and considerations for future adjustments. Ueda emphasized that the BOJ plans to maintain easy financial conditions for the time being but indicated that the bank's future monetary policy will be guided by the evolving economic and price conditions, rather than being dictated by a single indicator. He acknowledged that while the Japanese economy has shown moderate recovery, there are still some weaknesses, and highlighted the need to monitor financial and foreign exchange market movements due to their potential impact on the economy and prices.Governor Ueda clarified that the BOJ's policy is not aimed at directly controlling the exchange rate but noted that they will continue to observe the effects of foreign exchange on the economy and inflation. Despite the weak yen not significantly influencing trend inflation so far, it has contributed somewhat to higher inflation forecasts. Ueda stated that the likelihood of reaching the BOJ's 2% inflation target is gradually increasing and that adjustments to the degree of monetary easing might be necessary if underlying inflation rises. He also mentioned that foreign exchange fluctuations could be a factor in monetary policy decisions if they significantly affect underlying inflation, though the impact of FX on inflation is generally considered temporary."Continuing to observe" is not all that scary. Also, the weak yen has not significantly influenced price trend inflation is also not scary. That opened the door for the run to the upside. The 160.00 level is getting closer and closer. The high swing level from May 1990 hit at 160.40 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 26th (analysis of morning deals). The euro continues to rise

Apr 26, 2024 | 09:12 am

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.0754 and planned to make decisions on market entry based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. Growth and the formation of a false breakout led to a signal to sell the euro, resulting in a pair's decline of 40 points. In the second half of the day, the technical picture was slightly revised.To open long positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Eurozone data allowed the euro to continue its rise within the upward correction observed this week. But ahead lies another set of significant statistics on the USA, which could swiftly pivot the market in the opposite direction, reminiscent of yesterday's movement, albeit temporarily. Figures on the personal consumption expenditures index, changes in expenditure and income levels of the US population, as well as data on the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations, are expected. Rising inflation and higher expectations may bring demand back to the US dollar, making it quite difficult for euro buyers to offer anything around 1.0717, where trading is taking place now. Only a false breakout there, along with weak US data, will provide an entry point for long positions, capable of pushing the euro towards the significant resistance of 1.0751 formed at the end of the first half of the day. Breaking through and updating this range from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a new bullish market and a buying signal with a chance to surge to 1.0779. The ultimate target will be a maximum of 1.0798, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD and a lack of activity around 1.0717, as well as US inflation rising above economists' forecasts, pressure on the euro within the bearish trend will return. In this case, I will only enter the market after forming a false breakout around the next support level of 1.0682. I plan to open long positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0639, with a target of a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.To open short positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Euro sellers have every chance of the pair's decline, but for this, strong US statistics similar to yesterday are needed. In the case of growth, bears will have to show themselves again around 1.0751. The formation of a false breakout would be an excellent scenario for entering short positions with the aim of declining to around 1.0717, where the moving averages, favoring buyers, are located. Breaking through and consolidating below this range, along with a reverse bottom-up test, will provide another selling point, with the pair moving towards 1.0682, returning to the bearish trend. There, I expect more active involvement of large buyers. The ultimate target will be the minimum of 1.0639, where I will take profit. In the event of upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0751, bears will bid farewell in hopes of regaining control of the market by the end of the week. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0779. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0798 with a target of a 30-35 point downward correction.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 16, there was an increase in both long and short positions. Obviously, after the European Central Bank meeting and the soft tone of its policymakers, as well as after the latest US inflation data, which continued to rise, it isn't easy to imagine that buyers of the European currency will be active in the near future. Obviously, the higher the chances of maintaining a tough stance by the Federal Reserve, the stronger the US dollar will become against a range of other world currencies. For this reason, I bet on further development of the bullish trend for the US dollar and a decline in the euro. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 3,493 to the level of 178,912, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 23,992 to the level of 166,688. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 226.Indicator signals:Moving AveragesTrading is conducted around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator will act as support around 1.0717.Indicator Description:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9. Bollinger Bands. Period 20. Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders. The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The USD is moving higher vs the major currencies. What has it done to the technicals?

Apr 26, 2024 | 08:47 am

The USD is moving to the upside, and in the process is shifting the technical bias more in the direction of the buyers. In this video I take a look at five of the major currency pairs including the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and USDCAD.EURUSD: The EURUSD is now below its 100 hour moving average at 1.0695 but is finding some support buying near its 200 hour moving average 1.06715. Those levels will dictate the barometer for the pair going forward with the sellers making a play.USDJPY: The USDJPY continues its march to the upside. In a trending market like the USDJPY, it is wise to not try pick the top but to have the market tell you from a technical perspective, when a top might be in place. I outline what would give the sellers a win against the buyers. Absent that and the buyers are in firm control (and the trend can continue)GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has a fallen like the EURUSD, and is down testing at 100-day moving average 1.2442 and 200 hour moving average 1.2436. Getting below those levels is needed to increase the bearish.USDCHF: The USDCHF is moving higher and in the process is moving closer to the ceiling area between 0.9146 and 0.9156. That area has stalled the rallies over the month of a broad. Moreover on breaks, momentum has faded very quickly. So the price needs to get and stay above that level to increase the bullish bias.USDCAD: The USDCAD is rebounding and in the process is moving above it 100-day moving average, and it's 100-hour moving average on the 4-hour chart near 1.3682 – 1.3686.. Staying above those levels would give the buyers more confidence. Earlier today, the USDCAD moved to the lowest level since April 10 and below a swing area between 1.3654 and 1.3668. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 26, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil installations from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. The number of towers rose to 511 units, and a continuation of this trend could put pressure on oil prices. Read more

USDJPY moves to another new high... Buyers in firm control

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:56 am

The USDJPY has continued its march the upside with a run to a new session high.Earlier today, the Bank of Japan Policy was unchanged. The initial reaction was a run to the downside with the low price reaching 154.96. That took the price just below its 100-hour moving average but stalled ahead of its 200-hour moving average (blue and green lines on the chart above). Sellers had a shot. They missed. The buyers remained in control.The subsequent bounce-back rally as seen from fits of ups-and-downs but buyers still remained in control. You can see that on the 5-minute chart below. There was a dip in the London morning session that took the price toward the 100-bar moving average on a chart (blue line on the chart below). Buyers came in and snapped the price back to the upside. The other corrective moves have not approached the rising 100 bar MA. That 100-bar moving average currently comes in 156.695. It would take a move below that moving average (and it is moving higher) to give the sellers a victory technically. Absent that, and the buyers remain firmly in control. When the price is trending, it is best to let the price action tell you when a top may be in place. Remember that corrective moves may also be limited as trends are fast, directional and tend to go further than expected. It is up to the seller to show they can take control. The price is now up to 157.25.... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ index continues to surge. Now up 300 points or 1.94%.

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:18 am

The NASDAQ index is currently up 300 points or 1.92%. That's the largest percentage gain since February 22. For the training week, the NASDAQ in is now up 4.17% which represents the largest weekly gain this year and the highest since October 30, 2023.Technically, the price is now trading above its falling 100-day moving average at 15878.60. Looking at the hourly chart, there is a swing area between 15862 and 15925 (see yellow area on the chart above). That may give traders some cause for pause.Winners today include:Snap, +23.44%Alphabet +9.21%Super Micro Computers +6.88%Nvidia +5.11%Snowflake +4.0%Broadcom +3.82%AMD, +3.16%Microsoft +2.74%Micron +2.80%Amazon +2.10%The biggest loser today is Intel which is down -10.67% after disappointing earnings and for guidance. There has been a number of downgrades of the stock as well. Exxon shares after earnings are down -2.61%. Chevron shares down -0.96% also after earnings this morning. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF trades up and down again today. Holds the 100 bar MA/retracement level

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:13 am

The USDCHF made on low on Tuesday against its rising 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart. Today, the low price today also found support against its 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart. That sets the moving average as a key barometer on the downside going forward.On the topside this week, the highs extended to new highs for the week both on Wednesday and Thursday, but only by a few pips on each break. As a result, there is a swing area ceiling between 0.91469 and 0.91558. Going forward the price would need to get above those levels to increase the bullish bias.In between sets the 100 and 200-hour moving averages between 0.9117 and 0.9126. The current price is above those levels, giving a tilt to the upside in the short-term technically. Staying above is more bullish.The above video outlines the key technical levels in play and explains why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart the FX trading day for April 26 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:17 am

The US core PCE data came out a little more tame than what was probably feared by the market. US yields are below are a bit lower. The premarket US stocks are still higher but off their highest levels. The US dollar has seen fluctuations up and down.In this video I look at the technicals of the three major currency pairs POST the news, and outline the bias, risks and targets. The news is out. The markets have initially reacted. What next? Find out in this video what key levels will help drive the short-term/medium-term momentum This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 26-29, 2024: sell below 1.0753 (200 EMA - 4/8 Murray)

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:15 am

Early in the American session, the euro is trading at around 1.0713, below the 200 EMA, and below 4/8 Murray. During the European session, EUR/USD reached the top of the bullish trend channel forming since April 16, a level that coincided with the resistance area between 1.0753 and 1.0742.This area is a strong barrier for the euro, as it failed to break. We observe that there is a technical correction during which the instrument could reach 1.0704 and could even fall to the bottom of the bullish trend channel around 1.0680.If the euro finds support around 1.0704 and bounces around this area, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy with the target at 1.0753.If a technical bounce occurs but the euro is not strong enough to consolidate above 1.0753, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell with the target at 1.0680.The eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal, so we believe that any technical bounce while trading below the 200 EMA will be seen as an opportunity to sell until buying pressure is relieved.In the coming days, we could expect the euro to fall towards 2/8 Murray located at 1.0620. This scenario could occur if the euro trades below 1.0680 and if it breaks the uptrend channel formed on April 16.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 26-29, 2024: buy above $2,324 and sell below $2,352 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:58 am

XAU/USD is trading around 2,345 with a bullish but showing signs of exhaustion. During the European session, gold reached the top of the uptrend channel at about 2,352.In the H4 chart, we can see that since April 8, gold has been trading within a main bearish trend channel. Since April 22 after reaching the low of 2,292, gold formed another secondary bullish channel. The metal is likely to continue rising in the coming days.Given that gold has reached the top of the secondary uptrend channel, we believe that a technical correction could occur in the coming hours towards the 21 SMA located at 2,325 or even the bottom of the uptrend channel around 2,320.If this scenario occurs and if gold makes a correction and bounces around 2,325 to 2,320 it could be seen as an opportunity to resume buying with targets at 6/8 Murray and at 2,392 level where it left a GAP.On the contrary, if bullish strength prevails and gold breaks and consolidates above 2,350, it could reach the resistance of 6/8 of Murray located at 2,375. If the XAU finds a rejection in this area, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell with the target at 2,325. In the meantime, we can sell below 2,352.The eagle indicator is giving a bullish signal. So, with any pullback while it trades above 5/8 Murray, we can take advantage of the buying opportunity in the coming days.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:11 am

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The JPY is lower across all the major currencies after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rates at approximately 0-0.10%, a decision made unanimously with a 9-0 vote. Notably, the BOJ removed a key statement from its monetary policy, no longer specifying the purchase of about 6 trillion yen in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) per month, indicating a subtle shift in its quantitative easing strategy. This follows a significant rate hike on March 18, the first in 17 years, suggesting a cautious approach to managing the nation's economic recovery and monetary conditions. The bank acknowledged a moderate recovery in Japan's economy, although it recognized some areas of weakness and improving output gaps. It also highlighted moderately heightened medium and long-term inflation expectations and generally balanced economic risks, despite the extremely high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic and price outlook. The BOJ emphasized the importance of vigilance towards currency and market movements and their potential impacts on the economy and prices. Additionally, it observed that more firms are beginning to pass on rising wages to sales prices, anticipating a positive cycle of wage and inflation increases to continue, with consumer spending expected to rise gradually under accommodative financial conditions.During a press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda outlined the central bank's current monetary policy stance and considerations for future adjustments. Ueda emphasized that the BOJ plans to maintain easy financial conditions for the time being but indicated that the bank's future monetary policy will be guided by the evolving economic and price conditions, rather than being dictated by a single indicator. He acknowledged that while the Japanese economy has shown moderate recovery, there are still some weaknesses, and highlighted the need to monitor financial and foreign exchange market movements due to their potential impact on the economy and prices.Governor Ueda clarified that the BOJ's policy is not aimed at directly controlling the exchange rate but noted that they will continue to observe the effects of foreign exchange on the economy and inflation. Despite the weak yen not significantly influencing trend inflation so far, it has contributed somewhat to higher inflation forecasts. Ueda stated that the likelihood of reaching the BOJ's 2% inflation target is gradually increasing and that adjustments to the degree of monetary easing might be necessary if underlying inflation rises. He also mentioned that foreign exchange fluctuations could be a factor in monetary policy decisions if they significantly affect underlying inflation, though the impact of FX on inflation is generally considered temporary.The decision did cause down and up volatility (off of the initial reaction with bond buying omitted from the statement). However, after comments and further review, the net effect has been a continued run to the upside in the JPY pairs (lower JPY). The USDJPY is trading at a new high of 156.829. The next major stop 160.00? The price is running from the 100 hour MA which is down at 155.220 (blue line on the chart below). The 200 hour MA did stall the fall (green line). Buyers leaned against the MAs on the dip. Going forward, it would take a move below that MA to increase the bearish bias. Today in the US, the Core PCE price index for March will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Off of the measure imbedded in the US GDP suggests the number will be higher than expectations of 0.3% and 2.7% YoY. The market will be focused on revisions as well to gauge the trend. Personal income and consumption (0.5% and 0.6% estimate) are also due at 8:30 AM ET.At 10 AM ET, the U of Michigan consumer sentiment (FINAL) will be released. The preliminary came in at 77.9. Last month was 79.4. Current conditions preliminary came in at 79.3 (vs 82.5 last month) and expectations came in at 77.0 (vs 77.4 last month)US stocks are higher on the back of support after earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft which BEAT expectations after the close. Below is a summary of some of the major releases after the close and whether they beat or missed vs the expectations:Western Digital Corp (WDC): Shares are trading up 0.81% in premarket trading.Adjusted EPS of $0.63, BEAT expectations of $0.21.Revenue of $3.46bln, BEAT expectations of $3.36bln.Snap Inc (SNAP): Shares are soaring by 25.44% in premarket tradingAdjusted EPS of $0.03, BEAT expectations of -$0.05.Revenue of $1.19bln, BEAT expectations of $1.12bln.T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS): Shares are trading down -1.12%.EPS of $2.00, BEAT expectations of $1.87.Revenue of $19.59bln, MISSED expectations of $19.81bln.Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): Shares are trading up 11.79% in premarket tradingEPS of $1.89, BEAT expectations of $1.51.Revenue of $80.54bln, BEAT expectations of $78.59bln.Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD): Shares are trading down -0.18% in premarket trading.Adjusted EPS of -$1.32, BEAT expectations of -$1.51.Revenue of $6.69bln, BEAT expectations of $6.34bln.Intel Corp (INTC): Shares are down -8.0% in pre-market trading.Adjusted EPS of $0.18, BEAT expectations of $0.14.Revenue of $12.70bln, MISSED expectations of $12.78bln.Microsoft Corp (MSFT). Shares are trading up 4.35%EPS of $2.94, BEAT expectations of $2.82.Revenue of $61.86bln, BEAT expectations of $60.8bln.Some earnings today included oil giant Phillips, Exxon Mobile and Chevron. Shares of Phillips 66 is down -0.37%, Exxon shares are trading down -0.93%, while Chevron shares are down -1.0%. Below are some of the major releases from the morning. Phillips 66 (PSX)EPS of $1.90b, MISSED expectations of $2.17.AutoNation (AN)EPS of $4.49, BEAT expectations of $4.45.Revenue of $6.49M, MISSED expectations of $6.49bln.Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)EPS of $0.83, BEAT expectations of $0.81.Revenue of $5.07bln, BEAT expectations of $4.96bln.Exxon Mobil (XOM)Adjusted EPS of $2.06, MISSED expectations of $2.20.Revenue of $83.083bln, BEAT expectations of $78.35bln.Chevron Corp (CVX)EPS of $2.93, BEAT expectations of $2.87.Revenue of $48.7bln, MISSED expectations of $50.66bln.Centene Corp (CNC)EPS of $2.26, BEAT expectations of $2.08.Revenue of $40.4bln, BEAT expectations of $36.54bln.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.75 at $84.35. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.95.Gold is trading up[…]

Michigan consumer sentiment. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on changes in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The indicator is calculated monthly based on a telephone survey of at least 500 American households and records consumer spending that is part of economic activity. It may decrease from 79.4 points to 77.8 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Australian dollar extends gains as PPI surges

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:24 am

The Australian dollar has posted four straight winning sessions this week and is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6534, up 0.24%. The Aussie has powered higher this week, climbing 1.82%. Australia’s PPI blows past estimate Australia’s Producer Prices index jumped 4.3% y/y in the first quarter, up […]

EUR/USD. April 26th. Bulls continue to advance after the GDP report

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:21 am

The EUR/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696 and resumed its upward movement towards the corrective level of 76.4%-1.0764. The ascending trend channel continues to characterize the current market sentiment as "bullish." Consolidation of quotes below the ascending corridor will change the market sentiment to "bearish" and may lead to a resumption of the pair's decline towards the level of 1.0619 and below. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2nd), and the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9th. Thus, we are dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave needs to break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9th). If the next downward wave fails to break the last low from April 16th, this will also be a sign of a trend change to "bullish." Until then, the bears will maintain their advantage.The information background on Thursday was important and strong. Traders learned about the economic growth of the United States in the first quarter. It amounted to 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.1% year-on-year. It is noteworthy that the quarterly GDP of the United States turned out to be significantly below traders' expectations, while the annual one was higher. Bears failed to benefit from this report, as the quarterly value is still slightly more important. The American economy continues to slow down for the second quarter in a row, and the pace of the slowdown is quite high. At this rate, by the end of the year, the US economy may show growth close to zero, as is currently happening in the UK and the EU. A reduction in the Federal Reserve rate will not happen anytime soon, so the US economy may continue to slow down. On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 and rebounded from it after forming two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator falling below 20. Thus, a reversal in favor of the euro occurred, and the upward movement began towards the corrective level of 38.2%-1.0765. A "bearish" divergence is looming on the CCI indicator, which could put an end to the euro's rise. Consolidation of the pair's exchange rate below the level of 1.0644 will allow expecting a resumption of the decline towards the next Fibonacci level of 0.0%-1.0450.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:In the last reporting week, speculators opened 3493 long contracts and 23992 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of Long contracts held by speculators now stands at 179 thousand, while Short contracts amount to 167 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we see that the number of Short positions has increased from 92 thousand to 167 thousand over the past 3 months. During the same period, the number of Long positions decreased from 211 thousand to 179 thousand. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to resume the "bullish" trend. However, the information background has been supporting bears only recently. The European currency could have lost many more positions in recent weeks.News Calendar for the US and EU:US - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (12:30 UTC).US - Personal Income and Spending Change (12:30 UTC).US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).On April 26th, the economic events calendar contains three entries of approximately equal importance. The impact of the news background on traders' sentiment today may be of moderate strength, but only in the second half of the day.Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:Sales of the pair are possible today on consolidation below the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0619. Or on a rebound from the upper channel line with a target at the lower line. Purchases of the euro were possible on a close (or rebound) above the level of 1.0696 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0764, but bulls are currently weak, so the rise may end soon. Caution should be exercised with purchases.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:06 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened lower following a selloff caused by surprisingly high Core PCE data in the US Q1 GDP report. The market started to fade the move right at the open and eventually finished the day almost unchanged. Today we conclude the week with the US PCE report and judging by yesterday’s price action, we might see another rally at least until the new month data next week changes the sentiment. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday opened lower but eventually rallied all the way back to the prior day’s lows. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 15929 level where they will also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the 21 moving average on this timeframe. Given yesterday’s price action, we might see another push to the upside, right into the 15929 resistance where the sellers will look to pile in with a defined risk above the resistance to position into new lows. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the yesterday’s negative gap which was filled soon after as the market rallied for the entire trading session. Moreover, we should see a positive gap today as tech earnings after the close were much better than expected and some key stocks like Alphabet surged into new highs. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Personal consumption expenditures price index. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures. The indicator reflects changes in prices for goods and services purchased for personal consumption, except food and energy. The rate may remain at 0.3% YoY and rise from 2.5% to 5.6% YoY, while the core rate will remain at 0.3% MoM and fall from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY. Read more

Swiss franc shrugs after SNB’s Jordan comments

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:58 am

The Swiss franc is steady on Friday. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost unchanged at 0.9118. It has been quite a ride for the Swiss franc, which hit eight-year highs against the US dollar in the last week of 2023. The US dollar has roared back in 2024, surging 8.2% against the Swiss currency. […]

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:43 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. AUDThe RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally dropped the tightening bias.The CPI report beat expectations across the board with high underlying inflation measures.The latest labour market report missed expectations.The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong.The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower remaining in expansion.The market expects the first rate cut in February 2025.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD managed to rally all the way back to the key resistance zone around the 0.6520 level. This is where the sellers will look for shorting opportunities on the lower timeframes, while the buyers will want to see the price continuing higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline around the 0.66 handle. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. If we get a pullback into the trendline, the buyers will likely lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 0.66 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and position for a drop into new lows. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is starting to diverge with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback into the trendline where the buyers will look to buy the dip. If the price were to break below the trendline, a reversal would be confirmed, and the sellers will have much higher chances to push the price into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Forecast: GBP Probes Higher Against Yen

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:29 am

The British pound has shot higher during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of upward momentum.

DAX Forex Signal: Continues to Fall

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:24 am

The DAX fell significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as went now looks like we are threatening the 50-Day EMA indicator.

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Chop Back and Forth

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:59 am

The crude oil markets have been very noisy over the last several days, and at this point in time it’s obvious to me that the market is going to continue to search for some type of stability.

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Dollar Continues to See Momentum

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:58 am

The Aussie dollar rallied significantly during the early hours on Thursday, and it looks like we are going to continue to see a lot of volatility.

GBP/USD Forecast: USD Strength, GBP Weakness

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:53 am

The British pound initially rally during the trading session on Thursday but seems to be looking at the 1.25 level as a major barrier that’s all but impossible to stay above for any significant amount of time.

Gold Forecast: Gold Markets Rally a Bit During Early Thursday Trading

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:49 am

Gold initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, but then turned around to show signs of life.

USD/CAD Forecast: Momentum is an Issue, What’s Next?

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:47 am

The US dollar initially fell against the Canadian dollar during the early hours on Thursday, but then turned around to show signs of strength again.

USD/JPY volatile after inflation, BoJ meeting

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Japanese yen is swinging sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.46, up 0.52%. It has been a busy Friday in Japan. Japanese inflation data, which was released just before the end of the Bank of Japan meeting, was much lower than expected. Tokyo Core CPI, which was overshadowed by […]

USDCAD Technical Analysis - Getting close to a key support zone

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:31 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is getting closer and closer to the key support zone around the 1.3620 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. That will be the first opportunity for the buyers followed by the second one around the major trendline if the price were to break below the 1.3620 support. The sellers, on the other hand, will keep pushing at every break lower, and in case they manage to break below the trendline, the next target will be the 1.3225 low. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price yesterday got rejected from the minor downward trendline as the sellers stepped in to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers will need to break above the minor trendline and the 1.3730 resistance zone to turn the trend around and start targeting new highs. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.3665 level where there’s also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again with a defined risk above the resistance to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the trendline and targeting a break above it. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Looking for Support and Momentum

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:30 am

The Nasdaq 100 has gone back and forth during trading early on Thursday as we continue to try to find some type of footing for this market to turn things around.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Consolidate in General

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:35 am

The S&P 500 was fairly quiet in the early hours on Thursday and as we continue to try to sort out where we are going next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:13 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ left interest rates unchanged as expected with no other major change. The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Tokyo CPI, which is considered a leading indicator for National CPI, missed expectations across the board by a big margin although it was attributed to a one-off factor.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY eventually managed to break through the key 155.00 handle and extended the rally into new highs as the Japanese officials continue to refrain from an intervention given the strong fundamentals against the Yen. From a risk management perspective, it’s worth to keep an eye on the trendline around the 151.92 level where we can also find the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. If the price gets there at some point, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is starting to diverge with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback into the minor trendline around the previous resistance now turned support at 155.00. That’s where the buyers will look to buy the dip with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 151.92 support zone. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the spike higher following the unchanged BoJ policy decision and Governor Ueda’s comments. The first opportunity to buy the dip will come around another minor trendline where we have also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the next trendline around the 154.60 level. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Continues to Grind a Bit Higher

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:59 pm

The euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.37 level.

Monetary supply M3. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), March data on the M3 money supply aggregate in the EU is due. The indicator measures the value of all foreign currency and liquid monetary assets in the hands of the population and is an important indicator of inflation in the country, the growth of which may lead to higher interest rates by financial regulators. It may rise from 0.4% to 0.5% YoY. Read more

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:55 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower. The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. EURThe ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and opened the door for a rate cut in June.The recent Eurozone CPI missed expectations.The labour market remains historically tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.The latest Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping further in contraction.The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key 1.07 resistance and it’s now getting rejected by the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent price action might have formed a bearish flag, although the price will need to break below the bottom trendline to confirm it. The price is struggling right at the upper bound of the flag as the sellers continue to pile in to position for a drop into new lows. A breakout to the upside would invalidate the bearish flag and give the buyers clear way to target the major trendline around the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action and we can notice that we have another important zone around the 1.0690 level where we can find the confluence of the previous resistance now turned support, the minor black trendline and the 4-hour 21 moving average. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below the 1.0690 zone to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY: Persistent JPY bearish trend intact despite growing intervention risk

Apr 25, 2024 | 19:38 pm

Tokyo’s core-core inflation for April came in at 1.8% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since September 2022 & below BoJ’s inflation target of 2%. The latest set of softer-than-expected Tokyo’s CPI may push back the timing of the next BoJ’s interest rate hike. Widening of US Treasuries-JGBs yield spread premium is likely to support […]

Interest rate decision. Japan, 05:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 18:00 pm

At 05:00 (GMT+2), the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on the interest rate. It may be kept at 0.10% to assess the effectiveness of the increase in borrowing costs already carried out last month. Read more

Producer price index. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Q1 data on the producer price index is due, one of the main indicators of inflation in the country, recording changes in prices for goods and services sold by producers. The indicator also reflects changes in the costs of their production. It may rise from 0.9% to 1.9% YoY. Read more

Tokyo Core consumer price index. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), the April core consumer price index is due, recording changes in the price of goods and services in the Japanese capital, except food and energy. It is a key way to determine purchasing trends and inflation in a country. It may drop from 2.4% to 2.2% QoQ. Read more

GfK consumer confidence. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2) in the UK, April data on the consumer confidence index from GfK Group is due. The indicator evaluates the spending of the country’s residents, which is part of economic activity. The negative dynamics may slow from −21.0 points to −20.0 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

USDCAD another pair that has retraced the USD gains. Back down testing 50% midpoint.

Apr 25, 2024 | 11:31 am

The USDCAD has been trading up and down over the last few days of trading. The volatility intensified today with a move lower into retracement and swing area support, followed by a move higher into swing area resistance, followed by another move lower into the same retracement and swing area support as the initial move down today.The price is currently testing the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36612. The swing area is between 1.3654 up to 1.3668.The decision for traders is whether to buy the dip against the 50%/against the swing area down to 1.36546 (and for the subsequent bounce), or look for a break of that level with more momentum pushing the price down toward the 61.8% retracement and rising 200 bar moving average on 4 hur chart at 1.3615 area? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD retracing most of the gains from core PCE rise

Apr 25, 2024 | 10:36 am

The USD moved higher on the back of the core PCE data within the US GDP report. However, those gains have nearly been erased. Although the yields are still higher, they are off their highest levels. US stocks have also erased some of their declines with the NASDAQ index now down -1.10% or -167 points. At session lows, the NASDAQ was down -368.83 points. The S&P index was down -81.04 points at session lows. It is currently down -38.39 points.EURUSD:The EURUSD moved down to test its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) after the higher PCE data. That support level did hold support. The price has now moved back near the high for the day at 1.0739. The current price is trading at 1.0737. The 50% midpoint of the April trading range is at 1.07425. Get and stay above those levels would be more bullish.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved down to retest the broken 38.2% retracement after the GDP data at 1.2455. Buyers leaned against the level and have now pushed the price back up toward its high for the day in the process, the price is now moving back above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.25133. The high for the day reached 1.25244 right after the data release. Move above that level and traders would target the 61.8% retracement at 1.25519, and the 200-day moving out at 1.25597.USDCHF: The USDCHF moved higher today and extended above the 2024 high but only by about three pips. Buyers could not muster up some momentum (see chart below). The subsequent move back to the downside, has now moved back toward its 100 and 200-hour moving averages between 0.9117 and 0.9122. Getting and staying below those levels would have traders looking down toward the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% retracement of the April trading range. Both those levels come in at 0.9095 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD ping-ponging between 38.2% and 50% of the April trading range

Apr 25, 2024 | 09:32 am

The volatile move to the upside in the dollar after the US GDP, has reversed course after holding support against its broken 38.2% retracement of the April trading range. The corrective move has also stalled against the 50% of the same range.Traders are awaiting the next shove outside of the retracement levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD ups and downs as fundamental news keeps volatility high for the pair.

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:24 am

Earlier this week, Australian CPI for the quarter came in higher than expectations and that helped to push the AUDUSD pair to the upside. The price extended to the 200-day moving average and 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 0.6530 where sellers leaned. The subsequent move to the downside move the price to a swing area between 0.6475 and 0.6486. The price also wrote below it's 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 0.65028.Today despite Australian and New Zealand the nonholiday, the AUDUSD resumed its upward momentum and took the price safely above its 200 bar moving averages on the top side.Then US inflation became the focus, and the pair moved lower after higher core PCE in the US GDP report. The price has subsequently moved back below the 50% midpoint and 100 bar moving average at 0.65028. That level is now close resistance for traders and will represent a barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay below is more bearish. Move above and stay above would be more bullish.Find out about all the ups and downs in the AUDUSD in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound edges higher after soft US GDP

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:46 am

The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger than expected, but the markets could hear the “thud” of today’s […]

Spot gold is now up over 1%, and in the process is extending back above its 100H MA

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:45 am

Gold price is seeing a push to the upside with the price now up $28.44 or 1.23% at $2343.68. The high price just reached $2344.89 new high for the day.That move to the upside has now taken the price back above its 100 hour moving average at $2335.13. Stay above that moving average would be more bullish with the 200 hour moving out at $2356.62 as the next key tactical target.The high price of gold reached $2431.78 back on April 12. That is the new all-time high price for the precious metal.The corrective low which stalled at $2291 on Tuesday of this week, bottomed just above its 50% midpoint of the move up from the March 18 below. That midpoint level comes in at $2288.74. Buyers were ready to stick a toe in the water against that midpoint level.Gold remains a safe haven. Reports that Israel strikes on Rafah were intensifying. So although the tension between Iran and Israel has lessened, the focus returns to Gaza and Hamas. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD moves lower and tests the 100 hour MA. Finds buyers.

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:21 am

The EURUSD fell after the higher than expected inflation data from the US GDP report. The fall took the price back below the 38.2% retracement 1.0709 and down to test its rising 100 hour moving average at 1.06786. Support buyers leaned against that moving average level, and have pushed the price back to the upside. Getting back above the 38.2% retracement at 1.0709 and staying above that level is needed to increase the bullish bias. Above that level, and a swing area up to 1.07314 would be targeted.The high-priced today stall just ahead of its 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.07425. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pending Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on the index of pending sales in the US real estate market will be published. The index reflects changes in the number of signed but unpaid contracts for the purchase of housing and is an important indicator of the activity of the sector. It is expected that the indicator will decrease from 1.6% to 0.9%, acting as a catalyst for slowing the upward dynamics of the US dollar quotes. Read more

USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Stabilizes Ahead of Central Bank Rate Decision

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:15 am

Trading of the USD/TRY remained stable during morning trading today, Thursday, with the pair seeing no significant changes throughout the current week.

USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Slumps to 34-Year Low

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:00 am

The Japanese yen witnessed further weakness against its counterpart, the US dollar, falling to its lowest level in over three decades.

Gold Analysis: Prices Trying to Hold Uptrend

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:54 am

Gold prices pared losses after weaker-than-expected US business activity data helped bolster the case for Fed rate cuts this year.

USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meeting

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:52 am

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It […]

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 212.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand. Read more

Gross Domestic Product. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q1 2024 will be published. It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy and takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending and exports. QoQ, the value is expected to adjust from 3.4% to 2.5%, and the deflator — from 1.7% to 3.0%, exerting local pressure on the position of the national currency. Read more

Euro rises after German consumer confidence improves

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:15 am

The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism. The index improved to a revised -27.3 in […]

Gfk Group Consumer Confidence Survey. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the data on GfK Group Consumer Confidence for May are due in Germany. The indicator measures the degree of confidence in the strength of the economy and is a leading indicator for consumer spending. The negative dynamics is expected to slow down from -27.4 points to -25.9 points, which will still continue to put pressure on the euro exchange rate. Read more

Canadian dollar dips as retail sales fall

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:08 am

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday after a five-day winning streak in which it gained 1.1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3703, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales down in February Canadian consumers are holding tight on the purse strings as spending has been weak in the first quarter. […]

AUD/USD extends gains as inflation higher than expected

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:42 am

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation dips less than forecast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in […]

Crude oil imports. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction is expected from the current 2.735M barrels to 1.700M barrels, supporting oil quotes. Read more

Retail sales. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), February data on retail sales will be presented in Canada. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and affects gross domestic product (GDP). The rate may adjust from −0.3% to 0.1% in February, and the core value from 0.5% to 0.0%, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Durable goods orders. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the United States, March data on the volume of orders for durable goods with a service life of more than three years is due. The indicator is a leading indicator of industrial activity. The total volume of orders in March may adjust from 1.3% to 2.5%, and the core volume will be consolidated at 0.3%, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Euro edges lower despite stronger German business confidence

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:19 am

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. Germany shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 […]

Gold Technical: Is the bull run over after its worst daily decline in 2 years?

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:37 am

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% […]

Business expectations index. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April business expectations index in Germany will be published, which measures business sentiment and business conditions in the country through a survey of representatives of 7.0K companies. A decrease is predicted from 87.5 points to 84.7 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

IFO business climate. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April German business climate index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO), based on a survey of managers of 7.0K enterprises in the manufacturing industry, construction sector, wholesale and retail trade, will be published. The value may increase from 87.8 points to 88.9 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index in New Zealand will be published – the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It affects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy decisions. The figure may rise from 0.6% to 0.8% QoQ and fall from 4.1% to 3.4% YoY. Read more

Trade balance. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish March data on the trade balance – an indicator that records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The negative trend is likely to continue from the current –218.0M New Zealand dollars to –505.0M New Zealand dollars MoM, putting pressure on the national currency. Read more

API weekly crude oil stock. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The last time, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.090M barrels of crude oil, and the trend continuation may put pressure on oil prices. Read more

New home sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on home sales on the primary market. The indicator records the number of new residential buildings sold during the past month and is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may increase from 662.0K to 668.0K, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. USA 15:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:45 am

At 15:45 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the US industry and services sector will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. Manufacturing PMI may change from 51.9 points to 52.0 points and for the services PMI from 51.7 points to 52.0 points. Read more

Building permits. USA, 14:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:00 am

At 14:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the American government for the construction of real estate, being one of the most important sector indicators. The value may change from 1.524M to 1.458M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The manufacturing PMI may consolidate at 50.3 points, services PMI may drop from 53.1 points to 53.0 points, and the composite PMI may increase from 52.8 points to 52.9 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU countries will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 46.1 points to 46.5 points, the services PMI from 51.5 points to 51.8 points, and the composite PMI change from 50.3 points to 49.7 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. Germany, 09:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:30 pm

At 09:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Germany will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 41.9 points to 42.8 points, the services PMI from 50.1 points to 50.6 points, and the composite PMI may change from 47.7 points to 47.0 points. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOJ, AU inflation, US PCE and US Magnificent 7 stocks earnings in the focus

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:29 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation […]

Manufacturing and service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Japan will be published. They reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may correct from 48.2 points to 48.0 points, and the services PMI from 54.1 points to 54.9 points. Read more

Consumer Confidence. EU, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index will be published in the Eurozone. The indicator is calculated based on a survey of 2.3K households that evaluate the prospects for the economy. This is a leading indicator for consumer spending, its high values indicate consumer optimism, and vice versa. If in April the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -14.9 points, this will put pressure on the position of the European currency. Read more

SPX 500: How low can the correction go?

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:12 am

The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day moving average put its medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy. The current multi-week […]

Euro edges higher, ECB eyes June cut

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:14 am

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest […]

USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI eases

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:54 am

The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down […]

GBP/USD edges higher after flat retail sales

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%. Fuel sales were […]

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

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