Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

NZDUSD moves back into swing area and between 100/200 day MAs going into the weekend.

Oct 11, 2024 | 11:47 am

The NZDUSD traded above and below the 100-day MA this week but above the 200-day MA (green line) into the mid-week RBNZ rate decision. The central bank cut rates by 50 basis points and that sent the pair below the 61.8% but buyers came in against the 61.8% retracement. The subsequent bounce off the low on Wednesday saw the price move back to the 200-day MA where sellers leaned, putting a lid on the pair. There was one last move lower which took out the 61.8% and the low for the week, but quickly failed.That led to a run back higher and back between, the 200-day MA at 0.6095, and the 100 day MA above at 0.61215. That is where the price is now. Coming into the this week, the 100 and 200-day moving averages were key levels on the downside. As we end the week and look to next week, the same 100/200 day MAs will be key levels once again. If the price moves above the 100-day MA on the topside, I would expect more upside probing with traders targeting 0.6167 to 0.61795 as the next target area. Move above and there will be more upside momentum. Conversely, if the 200-day MA is broken on the downside, I woudl expect more downside mometum with traders once again targeting the 61.8% retracement at 0.60509. Move below and there should be more downside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD is lower on the week, but sellers had their shot and missed below key retracement.

Oct 11, 2024 | 09:26 am

The AUDUSD moved lower a week ago on the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. However, the price remained above its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (green line on the chart below). It wasn't until Monday that the price broke below that level (currently at 0.6779) and ran lower. The low price initially stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.67146 and bounced higher stalling against a swing area high and 0.67604. That increased the retracement level's importance.Since then the price has moved lower and traded six separate 4-hour bars below its 38.2% retracement. However, after the price started to approach another swing area between 0.6685 and 0.6696 along with its 100-day moving average, sellers turned to buyers, and pushed back above the 38.2% retracement. The sellers had their shot. They missed. The inability to stay below the 38.2% retracement was a fail and will now be a key target that - not only needs to be broken - but needs to stay broken today and going into next week. Moreover, the price needs to fall and stay below, the 100 day moving average at 0.6692.So overall, there is close resistance at 0.6760. There close support and 0.67146. Break and stay below the low number or breaking stay above the higher level would have traders shifting the bias in the direction of the break with work to do. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD is snapping back higher after a stronger jobs report. Buyers back in control

Oct 11, 2024 | 08:24 am

The USDCAD has been trending to the upside since bottoming on October 2 near 1.3472. The momentum over the last eight trading days has taken the price up to a high of 1.37826. That took the price to the low of the next swing area target between 1.3784 and 1.38036 (going back to April 2024 – see the red numbered circles on the chart below).Today, the Canadian jobs data came out stronger than expected, and the price of the USDCAD fell (higher CAD). The price did move back below the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August high. That level comes in at 1.3745. However, the momentum could not be sustained, and the price has snapped back higher. Going forward, it would take a move back below 61.8% retracement to give the sellers more comfort. Is selling over? What would increase the bullish bias once after the sharp move lower? Will the stronger number not phase the Bank of Canada rate-cutting agenda? Drilling to the 5-minute chart below, the price action late yesterday saw the price move back down to test the rising 200 bar MA (green line on the chart below). IN the Asian session tdday, the price moved below that lower MA line, but the momentum lower was not strong. Instead, the price traded higher with the MA line (see green line on the chart below) and then moved above the two moving averages and used the MA levels as a springboard to higher levels ahead of the jobs report. When the employment data came in stronger than expected, the price fell sharply below those moving averages, but has since snapped back higher. The rebound has taken price back toward and now above those moving averages.That has the shorts scratching their heads and covering shorts. The buyers are back in control above those MAs. The question going forward is can the price stay above those moving averages? if it can, there could be some head-scratching and more short covering with the levels off the 4-hour chart up to 1.3803. If the price, cannot get above - or fails on the break above - the sellers are still "in play" and we will see more downside probing with the 100/200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart, and the 61.8% retracement off the four-hour chart at 1.3745 as targets needed to be broken to increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF this week settles in a higher up and down trading range.

Oct 11, 2024 | 07:24 am

A week ago today, the USDCHF made a break to the upside and out of the "Red Box" that had confined the pair going back to August 20. The US jobs report was the catalyst for the move higher, but by Monday, the price fell back to the high of that "red box" and even moved within the topside edges of it. Sellers should have entered on that breach, but the momentum was very modest, and sellers turned back to buyers into Tuesday and reached session - and week - highs on late Wednesday and into Thursday's trade. Those highs reached a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. The high price reached 0.86067.Yesterday, control returned to sellers and moved the price toward the middle of the trading range this week. The current price is trading at 0.8576.What next?This week the price action in the USDCHF upped the trading range to a new higher level. At the low, the old ceiling did its job of holding support (give or take a few pips) at 0.85368. Today - and going into next week - staying above that level is required to keep the buyers in play. If the price moves back into the Red Box, the sellers are back in control, and I would expect the price to move back down toward the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart.On the topside, the swing area going back to the first half of August did its job of holding resistance up to 0.8619. Today- and going into next week - moving above that level is required to add to the bullish bias. Also of importance is getting above the 38.2% retracement at 0.86312. If that level can be broken, it opens the upside for further momentum.So instead of a trading range between 0.8400 and 0.8536, the new range is 0.8536 to 0.8619 and traders going forward are back to looking for the next shove. Is it going to be higher or lower? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0906; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0961; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0920 will argue that fall from 1.1213 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. In this case, deeper decline would be […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:34 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3023; (P) 1.3058; (R1) 1.3095; More… Outlook in GBP/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. While corrective fall from 1.3433 might extend lower, strong support should be seen from 1.3000 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2999) to contained downside. Above 1.3174 minor resistance will turn bias back […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8542; (P) 0.8578; (R1) 0.8597; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for consolidation below 0.8611 temporary top. On the upside, above 0.8611 will resume the rebound from 0.8374 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:30 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.04; (P) 148.79; (R1) 149.33; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 149.58 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 145.91 minor support holds. Rise from 139.57 is s seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.58 will target 61.8% retracement […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the forex day for Oct 11 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:25 am

The US PPI data came out and showed the YoY higher than expectations (but the headline was lower than the revised higher level), but the MoM data was more tame. The short end of the yield curve is a little lower. The long end, not so much. The US stocks are steady but lower on the day. In the forex, the price action in the three major currency pairs are trading up and down since Wednesday in relatively narrow trading ranges. That despite the CPI, jobless claims and the PPI data. That says to me, that the traders in charge of moving the market are battling at current levels. In the video, I speak to the ups and downs. Below I write about the levels. EURUSD: The EURUSD trades above and below the 100-day MA with 1.0954 area as resistance. The downside stalled yesterday near swing area support and 1.0900. The 54 pip range since Wednesday is not a heckuva lot. In between 100 day moving average is seen interest above and interest below. The market is trying to figure out which way it wants to break.USDJPY:The USDJPY is also trading within a range (albeit larger but relative to the price action of late fairly narrow). The downside is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 148.116. The high is near the end August high of 149.356 up to this week's high at 149.55. The range of 144 pip since Wednesday - like the EURUSD - is not a heckuva lot. Traders await the next shove outside that range at some point.GBPUSD: What is interesting technically in the GBPUSD is the high price yesterday and I prices today have found willing sellers near the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.30766. The current price is trading at 1.30632. Get above that moving average and stay above would give the buyers some hope at least in the short term. Absent that in the sellers are still in control. Looking more broadly, the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low comes in at 1.30488. The price moved below that midpoint yesterday, but could not stay momentum below the level. Getting and staying below the 50% would the sellers more confidence and hope for more downside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 06:20 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3695; (P) 1.3735; (R1) 1.3782; More… Outlook in USD/CAD is unchanged and intraday bias stays on the upside for the moment. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3946 to 1.3418 at 1.3559 will extend the rise from 1.3418 to 1.3946 high again. On the downside, below 1.3702 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

The NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Oct 11, 2024 | 05:15 am

As the NA session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. The USD is stronger ahead of the PPI and also the Canada employment report for September. The PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% for the headline and the 0.2% for the core (ex food and energy). The YoY are expected at 1.6% for headline and 2.7% (and 2.4% from last month) for the core. The CPI data was higher yesterday by 0.1% for both the headline and the core which has the markets on edge for Fed policy going forward. For the Canada jobs data, the employment change is expected at 27K with the unemployment rate stretching up to 6.7% (would be the highest since November 2021). The USDCAD has been moving sharply higher since November 2 at 1.3472. The high today reached 1.3778 with the next topside target at 1.38035. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, speaking on Bloomberg's Odd Lots, emphasized that inflation has significantly cooled, and the labor market remains strong, with unemployment at levels the Fed is satisfied with. He expressed confidence that inflation will continue moving towards the 2% target, noting that policymakers’ projections reflect this outlook. Goolsbee cautioned against overreacting to single data points and highlighted the market’s trust in the Fed's ability to manage inflation, contrasting the current situation with the 1970s, where inflation expectations escalated, which hasn't happened this time.Yesterday, Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic said that he could say skipping a November rate decline.The expectation of no change in November is up to about 18% (with 82% expecting a 25 basis point cut). Dallas Fed Pres. Logan also was cautious about policy changes at the next meeting.Looking at the economic data out of Europe today, most came out of the UK with mixed results. German Final CPI m/m: Actual 0.0%, Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.0% (MET forecast)GBP GDP m/m: Actual 0.2%, Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.0% (MET forecast)GBP Construction Output m/m: Actual 0.4%, Forecast 0.5%, Previous -0.4% (MISSED forecast)GBP Goods Trade Balance: Actual -15.1B, Forecast -18.8B, Previous -18.9B (BEATforecast)GBP Index of Services 3m/3m: Actual 0.1%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% (MISSEDforecast)GBP Industrial Production m/m: Actual 0.5%, Forecast 0.2%, Previous -0.7% (BEAT forecast)GBP Manufacturing Production m/m: Actual 1.1%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous -1.2% (BEAT is forecastEarnings season was kicked off today with financials leading the way. Apart from Wells Fargo which missed on Revenues, the other reports show beats led by JPM. Shares are higher on the news. Below is how some of the major companies reported today:JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) Q3 2024: Shares are up 1.26%EPS: $4.37 (expected $4.01) → BEATRevenue: $43.32 billion (expected $41.63 billion) → BEATWells Fargo & Co (WFC) Q3 2024: Shares are up 3.62%EPS: $1.42 (expected $1.28) → BEATRevenue: $20.36 billion (expected $20.81 billion) → MISSBank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) Q3 2024: is are up 1.41%EPS: $1.52 (expected $1.42) → BEATRevenue: $4.85 billion (expected $4.54 billion) → BEATBlackRock Finance Inc (BLK) Q3 2024: is are up 2.33%EPS: $11.46 (expected $10.33) → BEATRevenue: $5.22 billion (expected $5.01 billion) → BEATA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down -$0.63 or -0.80% at $75.32. At this time yesterday, the price was at $74.12Gold is trading up $16 or 0.61% at $2645.73. At this time yesterday, the price was $2612.30Silver is trading up nine cents or 0.31% at $31.24. At this time yesterday, the price is at $30.57Bitcoin is trading near levels from this time yesterday at $61,156. At this time yesterday, the price was at $61,193Ethereum is trading at $2417.80. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2403.10In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices trading modestly lower after yesterday's declines.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying decline of -20.10 points. Yesterday, the index now -57.88 points or -0.14% at 42454.12S&P futures are implying a decline of - -5.8 points. Yesterday, the index fell -11.99 points or -0.21% at 5780.05Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -64.01 points. Yesterday, the index fell -9.57 points or -0.05% at 18282.05Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -12.16 points or 0.55% at 2188.41European stock indices are trading modestly higher:German DAX, +0.20%France CAC, +0.07%UK FTSE 100, -0.04%Spain's Ibex, +0.30%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.10% (delayed by 10 minutes)Shares in Asian Pacific session shares were mixed:Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.57%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -2.55%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, on holidayAustralia S&P/ASX index, -0.10%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower with the two year yield back below the 4.000% level2-year yield 3.978%, -2.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.053%5-year yield 3.912%, -0.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.943%10-year yield 4.092%, -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.092%30-year yield 4.356%, +1.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.356%Looking at the treasury yield curve is steeper The 2-10 year spread is at +11.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +3.8 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at +41.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +30.2 basis points.In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are trading higher This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum run out of steam

Oct 11, 2024 | 03:08 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction.The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the top of their yearly ranges. The culprit was attributed mainly to Hurricane Helene and the strikes. The second reason is that the market was already positioned for a higher than expected reading as we’ve been seeing consistent upside in Treasury yields and the US Dollar in the days leading up to the release. Therefore, we got kind of a “sell the fact” reaction. On net, it was a slightly hawkish report but it looks like the market needs some more reasons to keep bidding the US Dollar now that the market’s pricing is back in line with the Fed’s projections.On the GBP side, the market continues to expect the BoE to deliver at least one more rate cut by year-end with a 25 bps cut in November priced at 80% probability. Next week, we will get key data from the UK with the release of the labour market and CPI report.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD bounced near the 1.30 handle following the US CPI release. That’s where the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.3250 level. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the 1.30 handle to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline next.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the bearish momentum waned as the price approached the 1.30 handle with the lower lows getting shallower. We have now a key level at 1.3093 as it’s the high set following the US CPI release. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above it to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3175 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk above the 1.3093 level to position for a drop into new lows.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action. There’s not much else to add here as the buyers will want to see the price breaking above the 1.3093 level, while the sellers will look for a break below the 1.30 handle to extend the drop into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – The market needs more to extend the USD gains

Oct 11, 2024 | 02:03 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction.The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the top of their yearly ranges. The culprit was attributed mainly to Hurricane Helene and the strikes. The second reason is that the market was already positioned for a higher than expected reading as we’ve been seeing consistent upside in Treasury yields and the US Dollar in the days leading up to the release. Therefore, we got kind of a “sell the fact” reaction. On net, it was a slightly hawkish report but it looks like the market needs some more reasons to keep bidding the US Dollar now that the market’s pricing is back in line with the Fed’s projections.On the EUR side, the market has fully priced in a back-to-back 25 bps cut in October from the ECB following the weak data and dovish comments from ECB officials. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD bounced around the 1.09 handle following the US CPI release and it’s now looking like we could get a pullback into the 1.10 handle where we can find the confluence of the broken trendline and a key swing level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the 1.10 handle to position for a drop into the 1.08 handle next, while the buyers will look for a break to the upside to increase the bullish bets into the 1.12 handle.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. The price broke above the trendline this morning in a potential signal of more upside to follow. The buyers will likely pile in around these levels to position for a pullback into the 1.10 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the trendline to position for new lows.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance around the 1.0955 level which is the high set on the US CPI reaction. A break above this level will likely give the buyers more confidence to target the 1.10 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD Technical Analysis – We are near a key resistance

Oct 11, 2024 | 01:38 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction.The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the top of their yearly ranges. The culprit was attributed mainly to Hurricane Helene and the strikes. The second reason is that the market was already positioned for a higher than expected reading as we’ve been seeing consistent upside in Treasury yields and the US Dollar in the days leading up to the release. Therefore, we got kind of a “sell the fact” reaction. On net, it was a slightly hawkish report but it looks like the market needs some more reasons to keep bidding the US Dollar now that the market’s pricing is back in line with the Fed’s projections.On the CAD side, the market is pricing in a 52% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. Today, we get the Canadian labour market report where weak data will likely strengthen the chances for a 50 bps cut.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is now trading near a key resistance around the 1.3785 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 1.36 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3860 level next.USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a huge rally the lows with basically no pullback. We have a steep upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further upside, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.36 support.USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action and the steep trendline. There’s not much else to see here as the buyers will look for a break of the resistance or a bounce on the trendline to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely pile in around these levels or wait for a break below the trendline to position for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the Canadian Labour Market report, the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The US CPI fails to trigger a breakout

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:49 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction.The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the top of their yearly ranges. The culprit was attributed mainly to Hurricane Helene and the strikes. The second reason is that the market was already positioned for a higher than expected reading as we’ve been seeing consistent upside in Treasury yields and the US Dollar in the days leading up to the release. Therefore, we got a “sell the fact” reaction. On net, it was a slightly hawkish report but it looks like the market needs some more reasons to keep bidding the US Dollar. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY rejected the key swing level at 149.40. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into 152.00 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will keep on piling in around these levels with a defined risk above the swing level to position for a drop into new lows.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have basically created a range between the 147.20 support and the 149.40 resistance. We will likely need a breakout on either side to increase the momentum and get a more sustained trend.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action as the bullish momentum waned at the key 149.40 swing level. There’s not much else we can add here as the market participants will wait for either a breakout or a catalyst. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:29 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.26; (P) 194.38; (R1) 195.18; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside break of 195.95 will resume whole rise from 180.00 to 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35 next. On the downside, break of 189.54 will turn bias back to the downside for 183.70 […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:26 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.92; (P) 162.76; (R1) 163.35; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 163.47/86 resistance will resume the rebound from 154.40 to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. On the downside, break of 158.09 will bring deeper fall back to 154.40/155.14 support […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:24 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8357; (P) 0.8371; (R1) 0.8389; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point, and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.8309 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support next. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8309 at 0.8429 will pave the way […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:22 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6194; (P) 1.6247; (R1) 1.6279; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Another rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.6218) holds. Above 1.6351 will resume the rebound from 1.6002 short term bottom to 38.2% of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6452. Decisive break there […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Oct 11, 2024 | 00:14 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9333; (P) 0.9377; (R1) 0.9408; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF Remains neutral for the moment, as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.9332 will resume the fall from 0.9579 towards 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9506 will turn intraday bias to the upside for 0.9579 resistance and above. […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:32 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3695; (P) 1.3735; (R1) 1.3782; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3418 is in progress. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3946 to 1.3418 at 1.3559 will target 1.3946 high again. On the downside, below 1.3702 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. In the […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:29 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6714; (P) 0.6728; (R1) 0.6755; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6809 minor resistance holds. Below 0.6701 will resume the fall from 0.6941 short term top. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.6744) should confirm rejection by 0.6941 fibonacci […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:27 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0906; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0961; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0920 will argue that fall from 1.1213 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3023; (P) 1.3058; (R1) 1.3095; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. While corrective fall from 1.3433 might extend lower, strong support should be seen from 1.3000 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2999) to contained downside. Above 1.3174 minor resistance will turn bias back to […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 23:23 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.04; (P) 148.79; (R1) 149.33; More… With a temporary top formed at 149.58, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 145.91 minor support holds. Rise from 139.57 is s seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Break of 149.58 will […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:46 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8542; (P) 0.8578; (R1) 0.8597; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the upside, above 0.8611 will resume the rebound from 0.8374 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 low. […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Forecast: Tests Major Support Level - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:45 pm

During my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I noticed that we are at a couple of major areas that could come into the picture and offer a bit of volatility.

USD/CHF Forecast: Threatens Resistance - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:41 pm

During my daily analysis of major currency pairs, the USD/CHF pair still garners quite a bit of attention, as it looks like it is trying to give us a signal as to where the US dollar may go longer term, or perhaps even more importantly, where the Swiss franc well.

Nikkei 225 Forex Signal: Falls to a Major Support - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:37 pm

The Nikkei 225 fell a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to watch this index very carefully.

Gold Forecast: Gold Bulls Eye New Highs - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:28 pm

During my daily analysis of the gold market, I continue to look at the upward trajectory as being important, and the market pulling back to the $2600 level is being met by quite a few buyers.

GBP/USD Forecast: Bounce or Breakdown Ahead? - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:22 pm

As you can see, the British Pound has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to dance around the 1.30 level.

CAD/JPY Forecast: Faces Volatility as Yen Gains Strength - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:14 pm

The Canadian dollar initially tried to rally against the yen, but then fell rather hard as we continue to see a lot of volatility.

ASX 200 Forecast: Continues to Consolidate Near the Highs - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:08 pm

The ASX200 initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday, only to turn around and show signs of weakness.

Nasdaq Forecast: Buyers on Dips - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:03 pm

The NASDAQ 100 initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, but it now looks as if it is trying to take off to the upside.

Silver Forecast: Finds Buyers Near Support - 11 October 2024

Oct 10, 2024 | 22:00 pm

The silver market rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continued to bounce after the significant sell off.

AUDUSD trades up and down in trading today with swing areas defining support & resistance.

Oct 10, 2024 | 12:09 pm

The AUDUSD fell to - and through the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.67146 late yesterday, but bounced higher in the Asian session today. The high price in the Asian session extended up to 0.67417 which was just short of the low of a swing area 0.67429. The subsequent fall back to the downside helped by CPI and initial jobless claims did see a new low reached at 0.66997. That low was ahead of a swing area between 0.6685 and 0.6696. The 100 day moving averages between those levels as well.So the up and down price action has defined the range between 0.6685 to 0.67429. Traders will be looking for a break outside of that range. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/TRY Forecast: Holds Steady Amid Policy Shifts

Oct 10, 2024 | 12:07 pm

The dollar-lira pair maintained its stability in the overall trading of this week. The pair traded around 34.20 liras per dollar, amidst the Turkish currency's orbital movement by the country's financial and monetary authorities.

If confused about the price action today, watch this video on the NZDUSD.

Oct 10, 2024 | 08:39 am

If you are confused about the price action, you are not alone. However, technicals often tell the story of the price action, and if you can think of the price action as the dilemma buyers and sellers are facing, that story becomes more clear. IN the NZDUSD, we know the 61.8% was support. I talked to that in the post on the pair yesterday.In the same post, I commented that IF the support does hold at the 61.8 retracement (and it did) this should happen. Specifically, I posted: :So what happened?The 61.8% held support and the price moved higher, and then the 200-day MA stalled the rally. So what can you conclude?A battle is on. Now today, the price of the NZDUSD did move below the 61.8% on the volatility from the US data today, but quickly rejected the break and has settled between the two levels. That can happen especially after data releases. It stinks when it does, but the rejection tells you the market is more balance too. Anyway, when you have a battle....a fight... someone will win eventually, but both (in this case buyers and sellers) are flailing and hoping to win. What would be a win for the buyers? Get and stay above the 200 day MA and work higher from there (with the 100 day MA as a key target on the topside). What would be a win for the sellers? Get and stay below the 61.8% and work lower from there. The point is look at the price action when it is choppy and make a story about the battle. If you do that and put it in terms of winners and loser (in any currency pair or chart on anything), you know what needs to be done to push outside the battle range and declare the champion. IN the meantime, be happy with battle story but understand choppy price action may continue (until it doesn't). . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD moves back below 100 day MA and buyers turn to sellers

Oct 10, 2024 | 07:49 am

The EURUSD moved lower and higher after the US data today, but the run to the upside ran out of steam near a key swing area between 1.09419 and 1.0949. The inability to get above that area started the move back to the downside. Getting below the 100-day moving average turned the buyers into sellers.The price has since moved down to the high of a swing area target between 1.0900 and 1.09126. The low price just reached 1.09129. If the price can get below the 1.0900 level, traders would look toward the 200-day moving average at 1.08736.Conversely, we could see buyers in this swing area (once again), in which case, the 100-day moving average of 1.0933 becomes the key resistance level.The ups and downs has traders feeling betrayed on the downside and the topside. The 100 day moving average seems to be the barometer in the middle of resistance near 1.0949 in support near 1.0900. Right now the sellers are more in control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD trend move higher continues. Pair is up near 300 pips in a week. What next?

Oct 10, 2024 | 07:24 am

The USDCAD has been running higher over the last week with the pair raising up near 300 pips in one week of trading. That's a big move in a short period of time as the market trends to the upside. For a fundamental view of the price action, see Adam's post here. Tomorrow the Canadian employment report will be a key release. For the trend to continue, traders will be looking for weakness in that report. Technically, the price has moved up to a swing area between 1.3753 and 1.3765. The high price has extended to 1.37677 and backed off. This area could be out area of stall, but sellers have to also show they can take more control.Getting below the low of the swing area at 1.3753 and staying below is step one.Another step would be if the price on the 5-minute chart can get and stay below its rising 100 bar moving average. That moving average currently comes in at 1.3736. Get and stay below that level and then the rising 200 bar moving average at 1.3722 would give the sellers more confidence that the correction is progressing to the downside (blue and green lines on the chart below). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of US Inflation Data

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:45 am

Amidst a divided Federal Reserve on the size of US interest rate cuts in September, the EUR/USD exchange rate moved towards the support level of 1.0936, its lowest in seven weeks.

USD/JPY Forecast: Central Bank Policies Favor the Dollar

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:41 am

The Japanese yen has declined below 149.50 yen against the US dollar, heading towards its lowest levels since early August.

AUD/CHF Forecast: Aussie Continues to Wrestle with Doubt Against Franc

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:36 am

After all, the Australian dollar is a commodity currency and therefore it does tend to move higher when there's more risk on behavior and at the other end of the spectrum you have the Swiss Franc which of course tends to strengthen when there is a serious decrease in risk appetite.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:27 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0920; (P) 1.0956; (R1) 1.0975; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0920 will argue that fall from 1.1213 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. In this case, deeper decline would be seen […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:25 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3049; (P) 1.3081; (R1) 1.3107; More… Outlook in GBP/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. While corrective fall from 1.3433 might extend lower, strong support should be seen from 1.3000 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2999) to contained downside. Above 1.3174 minor resistance will turn bias back […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Forex markets react to mixed US data. What next technically for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:25 am

The US CPI data today was higher than expected with the headline up 0.2% versus 0.1% expected and the core of 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. That increase the year on year measures as well with the core up 3.3% YoY. Not good. On the other hand is that initial jobless claims equal that's highest level going back to August 5, 2023.Stocks have moved lower after the data. Yields have some back-and-forth but are currently down. What about the forex market?EURUSD: The EURUSD did move lower and extended down toward a swing area target between 1.0900 and 1.09126, and then bounced back higher. The move higher has taken the price back above its 100-day moving average at 1.0933. The inability to stay below the 100 day moving average has me thinking that that level is now support. Stay above is more bullish. On the topside get above 1.0949 (high of a swing area and back above the 61.8% retracement at 1.0944) and more upside probing can be expected.USDJPY: The USDJPY is lower, but the low price stalled ahead of its broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the early July high. That level comes in at 148.116. The current price is trading at 148.52. The low price for the day reached 148.23. Staying above the 38.2% retracement, keeps the buyers in play. On the topside the 149.35 – 149.55 is the topside target area. Buyers and sellers are battling it out in this currency pair with the eye probably on yields today.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD reacted negatively to the data initially, and in the process broke below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That level comes in at 1.30488, and is now support once again. Earlier this week, the price found early buyers against that midpoint level and bounced higher.Premarket the NASDAQ index is down around 100 points. The S&P index is trading down -20 points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:23 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8579; (P) 0.8594; (R1) 0.8624; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside with 0.8529 minor support intact. Rebound from 0.8374 is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 low. Next target […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/INR Analysis: Higher Tight Realm via Strong Hand of Government

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:22 am

Traders of the USD/INR have been treated to another round of Reserve Bank of India governance regarding the currency pair as the higher price realms have again taken hold.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:12 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.43; (P) 148.89; (R1) 149.78; More… USD/JPY dips in early US session but stays above 147.33 minor support. Intraday bias stays on the upside, as rise from 139.57 short term bottom is still in progress. Current rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Next target is […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

NZD/USD Forecast: New Zealand Dollar in a Free Fall as RBNZ cuts 50 Basis Points

Oct 10, 2024 | 06:07 am

The New Zealand dollar has plunged during trading on Wednesday.

USD/SGD Forecast: Greenback Continues to Rally Against the Sing Dollar

Oct 10, 2024 | 05:36 am

The US dollar had been sold off quite drastically against the Singapore dollar for some time, but the last couple of weeks have been very bullish for the greenback.

The NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Oct 10, 2024 | 05:14 am

As the NA session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is sitting near the middle of the range of currencies with a modest downward bias before the release of the key CPI data at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for a gain of 0.1% for the headline and 0.2% for the core measure. The YoY is expected at 2.3% (vs 2.5% last month) and 3.2% (vs 3.2% last month). The problem is the core CPI still above 3.0%. The initial jobless claims will also be released with expectation of 230K vs 225K. Will there be an impact from Hurricane Helene/the dock worker strike? Be aware there may be some wonkiness Overnight, the BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino spoke today and said that rate hikes are possible if the July economic outlook report meets targets, mentioning record wage increases in Japan. Decisions will be data-driven and meeting by meeting, with real interest rates still negative. The BOJ is gathering more data on wage hike impacts and preparing for next year's wage negotiations. Himino also stated that the BOJ has enough time to monitor financial markets, though no clear consensus exists on communication improvements among policymakers. Markets remain somewhat unstable - and stability has been a pre-requisite for the BOJ - but further rate hikes cannot ruled out either. The USDJPY is modestly lower (JPY higher) today after moving up (and surpassing modestly) the August 15 high at 149.35. The CPI (and initial claims) risk event will be a key determinant fo whether the price continues the run higher with the 50% and 100/200 day MA in play above 150.00 at 150.75 and then 151.28 (ultimately) or back down toward the broken 38.2% at 148.11 and then a key swing area at 147.30 area. The ECB September minutes highlighted resilient global activity growth, despite recent negative surprises in manufacturing output that posed short-term challenges. Key points include:Wage pressures, especially in services, were identified as a major inflation risk, with concerns that productivity gains were not offsetting wage increases as expected.Risks to the economic outlook were seen as two-sided, with the potential for growth downturns or persistent inflation.Some scenarios suggest a possible suspension of the rate-cutting cycle due to structural factors or unexpected inflationary pressures.Overall, the incoming data implied a downward revision in growth expectations, with flexibility on the speed of policy adjustmentThe EURUSD is trading above and below the 100-day MA at 1.0933 today and ahead of the US data at the bottom of the hour. Yesterday the price moved below a swing area between 1.0941 to 1.0949 (and the 61.8% at 1.0944), but has been stalled above and below the key 100 day MA. If the price moves above the 1.0949, look for more upside probing on the failed break of the 100 day MA. ON the downside, moving away from the 100 day MA would increase the bearish bias with a swing area around 1.0900 to 1.0913 and below that the 200 day MA at 1.0874. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.88 or 1.20% at $74.12. At this time yesterday, the price was at $73.17Gold is trading up $4.91 or 0.19% at $2612.30. At this time yesterday, the price was $2618.20Silver is trading up $0.09 or 0.31% at $30.57 . At this time yesterday, the price is at $30.66Bitcoin is trading at $61,193. At this time yesterday, the price was at $62,145Ethereum is trading at $2403.10. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2438.70In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices trading modestly lower after yesterday's gains.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying decline of -27 points. Yesterday, the index rose $431.63 or 1.03% at 42512.00S&P futures are implying a decline of -5.29 points. Yesterday, the index rose 40.91 or 0.71% at 5792.04Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -21.61 points. Yesterday, the index rose 108.70 or 0.60% at 18291.62Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 5.60 points or 0.26% at 2,2200.58European stock indices are trading mixed:German DAX, +0.04%France CAC, -0.05%UK FTSE 100, -0.13% %Spain's Ibex, -0.65%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.35% (delayed by 10 minutes)Shares in Asian Pacific session China shares moved higher with China's Shanghai index rebounding from yesterday's sharp declinesJapan's Nikkei 225, +0.26%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.33%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +2.98Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.43%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher ahead of CPI data and the 30 year bond auction at 1 PM ET2-year yield 4.053%, +3.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.965%5-year yield 3.943%, +3.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.863%10-year yield 4.092%, +2.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.037%30-year yield 4.356%, +1.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.322%Looking at the treasury yield curve is flatter versus this time yesterdayThe 2-10 year spread is at +3.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +7.2 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at +30.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +35.7 basis points.In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are down modestly This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/MYR Forex Signal: US Dollar Faces Daunting Task Against the Malaysian Ringgit

Oct 10, 2024 | 04:51 am

USD/MYR: Break above 50 Day EMA could push to 4.50. Watch for breakdown below 4.23 to target 4.1250.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bears Prevail as US Dollar Rally Accelerates

Oct 10, 2024 | 04:16 am

The AUD/USD pair continued its downward momentum

Gold Analysis: Declines for Sixth Consecutive Session

Oct 10, 2024 | 04:09 am

Gold prices fell for the sixth consecutive session to below $2,606 per ounce on Wednesday, the lowest level in about three weeks, under pressure from the strength of the US dollar as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve will not act quickly to cut interest rates as previously thought.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: More Downside as it Breaks Key Support

Oct 10, 2024 | 03:20 am

The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its strong sell-off after the Federal Reserve published minutes of the last meeting.

GBP/USD Analysis: Downward Channel Strengthens

Oct 10, 2024 | 03:19 am

As expected, the GBP/USD pair has been heavily impacted by the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin’s Sell-Off Could Continue

Oct 10, 2024 | 03:15 am

Bitcoin continued falling during the overnight session as odds of a more hawkish Federal Reserve rose.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Potentially Strong Support Above $1.3000

Oct 10, 2024 | 03:04 am

The US Dollar has continued to strengthen, but this currency pair has reached an area just above $1.3000 of several tightly packed support levels, so will likely struggle to fall much further

USDCHF Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US CPI report

Oct 10, 2024 | 03:03 am

Fundamental OverviewThe USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections.This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause in November. The focus remains on the economic data. Today we get the US CPI report. We will likely need a hot report to see some more upside in the pair, while a miss could see the pair falling on the market paring back the hawkish expectations. For the CHF, the Swiss CPI recently surprised once again to the downside. As a reminder, the SNB cut rates by 25 bps at the last policy decision and mentioned that it’s prepared to intervene in currency markets as necessary. Moreover, the new inflation forecasts were revised significantly lower signalling more rate cuts to come. The market is pricing a 14% probability for a 50 bps cut in December.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF pulled back to retest the previous resistance now turned support around the 0.8550 level and rallied back to test the recent highs. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher on a hot CPI to increase the bullish bets into the 0.8730 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see a soft CPI and a drop back below the 0.8550 support to increase the bearish bets into the 0.8333 level next.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for a break above the resistance at 0.8607. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 0.8550 support and beyond.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action. We can see that we have a nice support zone around the 0.8580 level where we can find the confluence of the trendline and the previous swing high level. All eyes are now on the US CPI report as it will likely decide the trend for the next weeks. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US CPI report and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NZD/USD Analysis: Bounces Back After Recent Lows

Oct 10, 2024 | 02:36 am

The NZD/USD has sustained a near-term bearish trajectory which brought the currency pair to the 0.60500 level yesterday, after 0.50 interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Wednesday.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The greenback remains supported ahead of the US CPI

Oct 10, 2024 | 02:17 am

Fundamental OverviewThe USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections.This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause in November. The focus remains on the economic data. Today we get the US CPI report. We will likely need a hot report to see some more downside in the pair, while a miss could see the pair rising on the market paring back the hawkish expectations. On the NZD side, the RBNZ this week cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected. The market is pricing an 83% probability of another back-to-back 50 bps cut in November. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD sold off all the way down to the key 0.6050 support zone. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 0.6217 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5850 support next.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position for further downside, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into new highs.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action. There’s not much else to add here as the next direction will likely be decided by the US CPI report today. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US CPI report and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The USD remains in the driving seat

Oct 10, 2024 | 01:37 am

Fundamental OverviewThe USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections.This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause in November. The focus remains on the economic data. Today we get the US CPI report. We will likely need a hot report to see some more downside in the pair, while a miss could see the pair rising on the market paring back the hawkish expectations. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD is trading right in the middle of two key levels. The target for the sellers should be the 0.6622 level although they will likely need a hot US CPI report today to see the bearish momentum increasing. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price bouncing back and breaking above the 0.68 handle to target new highs. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further downside, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into new highs.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with the trendline acting as a strong barrier. There’s not much else to add here as the sellers will look for a rejection and new lows ahead, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to gain more confidence for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US CPI report and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Struggles as USD Strengthens

Oct 10, 2024 | 01:28 am

The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Wednesday and as a result sellers came in and pushed this market lower.

USD/CHF Forecast: Breaks Resistance

Oct 10, 2024 | 01:02 am

During my daily analysis of the USD/CHF pair, the first thing I notice is the 0.86 CHF level, which is crucial as we have seen it offer resistance multiple times.

Gold Forecast: Continues to Test Support

Oct 10, 2024 | 00:48 am

During my daily analysis of the gold market, the first thing I see is that we continue to look at the $2600 level as a massive support level.

AUD/JPY Forecast: Eyes Key ¥100 Level

Oct 10, 2024 | 00:30 am

In my daily analysis of yen related pairs, the AUD/JPY pair continues to be one that I watch, especially as we are hanging around in a massive, large, round, psychologically significant figure in the form of the ¥100 level.

USDJPY tests the high from August

Oct 9, 2024 | 12:21 pm

Yields in the US have moved higher with the 10-year yield now up 2.8 basis points and the 2-year yield up 3.2 basis points. In addition, the chance of no change in policy in November reached close to 25% today before rotating back down to 20%. It wasn't long ago that the market was pricing in a 50 basis point cut. There still is an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November.The move higher in rates has helped to push the USDJPY higher as well and the price has now reached the August 16 high near 149.36. The high price just reach 149.355. Move above that ceiling and traders would start to look toward the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high at 150.757.Yesterday the price moved down to test an old ceiling going back to August 20 (see green numbered circles). On Friday, the price broke above that ceiling after the US jobs report. The low price yesterday extended to that old ceiling and found support buyers (the low reached 147.338). That gave the buyers the go-ahead to push back to the upside today Getting and staying above the 38.2% retracement at 148.116 was another positive/bullish development for the pair today.Fundamentally, the key CPI data will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. The number is expected to be fairly tame at 0.1% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. The YoY is expected at 2.3% down from 2.5% for the headline but up at 3.2% for the core. With the job market remaining strong in the last report, seeing the court come down to a 2% handle would give Fed officials more comfort. Nevertheless, the recalibration idea for the Fed is still in play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD continued the fall that started last week after the RBNZ rate cut. What next?

Oct 9, 2024 | 11:04 am

The NZDUSD traded to the highest level in 2024 just last week (eight trading days ago). The high price reached 0.63778. Today after they are beyond the cut rates by 50 basis points, the price low traded to 0.60516. That's 327 pips in a trading days.Technically the decline seen in trading today has taken the price below a cluster of technical levels including the: 100 day moving average and 0.6121850% midpoint of the 2024 range at 0.6113200 day moving average of 0.60966The price has also moved into and today low of a swing area going back 20 months between 0.6050 and 0.6084, and down to the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 trading range at 0.60509. The low price today fell to just above that retracement level. If buyers are to take profit, this would be the area to buy against. However, I would do it with a stop if the price starts to trade more comfortably below that 61.8% retracement level. If the level can hold, there could be a corrective probe back toward the 200 day MA. However, I would not to want to see the price move above the 100 day MA IF the sellers are intent on keeping more control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ index within 2% of it's all time high closing level

Oct 9, 2024 | 09:05 am

The NASDAQ index is now trading up over 113 points or 0.62% at 18295.69. The high price reached 18299.22. That has taken the price within 2% of it's all time high closing level at 18647.45. The intraday high close level came in at 18671.07. The next target comes against the high price from September at 18327.34.The Magnificent Seven have had mixed results over the last month of trading. Leading the way is Nvidia with a gain of 22.29%. The laggard is Microsoft with a gain of only 1.19%NVIDIA: +22.29%Meta Platforms: +16.28%Alphabet A: +8.82%Tesla: +7.85%Apple: +3.73%Amazon: +2.86%Microsoft: +1.19%The S&P index is reaching a new intraday high today. They high price has reached 5790.430 The Dow industrial average is on pace to close at a new record level but is short of its intraday high level at 42628.32. The high price is reached for 42485.76 so far today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD extends to a new low and stretches toward the 100 day MA

Oct 9, 2024 | 08:33 am

The EURUSD has moved to a new session low, and in the process, the pair moved to a new low going back to August 13 and through the 61.8% of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0944, and a swing area between 1.09419 to 1.0949. The low reached 1.09388.However, what looms below that swing area and retracement level is its 100 day MA at 1.09322, and that level was not broken. The price has pushed back higher and threatens a shift back to the upside on the inability to keep the selling going through the 100-day MA. Resistance against the 50% kept a lid on the pair yesterday. The 61.8% was broken today, but the 100-day MA was not. Sellers hold most of the bias, but dip buyers can also claim that the 100-day MA is a low-risk level to stick a toe in the water. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Analysis: Fights to Stay Above 1.3000 Support

Oct 9, 2024 | 08:00 am

The British pound has been on a sluggish path this week, recovering its previous losses to become the best performer yesterday, Tuesday.

Sellers in the AUDUSD are looking to increase the bearish bias. What does that look like?

Oct 9, 2024 | 07:57 am

The AUDUSD is moving lower after testing a key resistance area between 0.67429 and 0.6760. Sellers leaned against the high of that swing area and pushed prices back to the downside.On the downside, earlier this week the price found support buyers against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.67146. In the last 4-hour bar, the price has now broken below that 38.2% retracement level. Sellers are making a play.On the downside, there is a swing level near 0.66965 the key next target comes against its 100-day moving average at 0.6689. Breaking below that level - and staying below that level - would increase the bearish bias and have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the same move up from the August low at 0.66447. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD buyers making a play with a break above and away from 100 day moving average

Oct 9, 2024 | 07:18 am

The USDCAD extended above its 100-day moving average yesterday, but by the end of the day was trading back below that he moving average level at 1.36513. In the early Asian session, traders took the price even a lower and back below the high price from September at 1.36467. Those breaks should have disappointed the buyers and led to more downside momentum. However, buyers it did return, and the next test of the high price from September found dip buyers. That gave the buyers the "go-ahead" to move higher. This area defined by the high price from September and the 100-day between 1.3646 and 1.3651 is now KEY support. My expectation that another dip below those levels would not be a good thing for the buyers. I would expect buyers to turn to sellers. Absent that, and the buyers can probe higher from the key break back above the 100 day MA level. Absent that, and the buyers can probe higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/MYR Analysis: Bounce Higher as Risk Adverse Sentiment Threatens

Oct 9, 2024 | 02:59 am

The USD/MYR continues to see some buying activity as behavioral sentiment has turned cautious the past week and a half in the currency pair.

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